Report

PSA Autos / New Mobility: The Fraught Path to Electrification

Given that the EV market is not a free market, led by demand and supply, but a distorted market, moved by political intervention in the form of subsidies (or lack of), making EV sales forecasts is very challenging indeed. This is a headache for analysts, but even more so for auto companies with a ten-year planning horizon. In this report, we outline the sales situation for different regions, as well as providing an outlook based on currently available information.
Underlyings
1895 BANCORP OF WISCONSIN INC

Bayerische Motoren Werke AG

Bayerische Motoren Werke is a holding company, engaged in the development, manufacture and sale of cars and motorcycles. Co. owns three brands: BMW, MINI and Rolls-Royce. Co.'s BMW automobile range encompasses the 1 Series, including coupe and convertible models; the 3 Series, including sedan, touring, coupe and convertible models; the 5 Series, including sedan and touring models; the 6 Series, including coupe or convertible; the 7 Series large sedan; the Z4 roadster and coupe; the sports utility vehicles, X3, X5 and X6 and M models. Co. also provides cars under the MINI brand and motorcycles under the BMW brand. The Rolls-Royce brand provides three cars, Phantom, Coupe and Ghost.

BYD Company Limited Class H

Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited Class A

Ford Motor Company

Ford Motor designs, manufactures, markets, and services a line of Ford cars, trucks, sport utility vehicles, electrified vehicles, and Lincoln vehicles, as well as provides financial services through its subsidiary, Ford Motor Credit Company LLC. The company is engaged in electrification; mobility solutions, including self-driving services; and connected vehicle services. The company has three operating segments: Automotive, which includes the sale of Ford and Lincoln vehicles, service parts, and accessories; Mobility, which includes its autonomous vehicles and its investment in mobility through Ford Smart Mobility LLC; and Ford Credit, which includes vehicle-related financing and leasing activities.

Geely Automobile Holdings Limited

Geely Automobile Holdings is an investment holding company. Through its subsidiaries, Co. is engaged in the investment holding and export of sedans outside the People's Republic of China (PRC); research, production, marketing and sales of automobile parts and related components and the research and development of electric hybrid engines in the PRC; procurement of automobile parts and components in the PRC; and marketing and sales of sedans in Russia and South America. In addition, through its associated companies, Co. is also engaged in the manufacturing of traffic facilities; provision of webpage design and related technology support services; manufacturing of emission control systems.

General Motors Company

General Motors designs, builds and sells trucks, crossovers, cars and automobile parts. The company also provides automotive financing services through its subsidiary, General Motors Financial Company, Inc. (GM Financial). GM Financial provides retail loan and lease lending across the credit spectrum. GM Financial provides commercial lending products to dealers including new and used vehicle inventory floorplan financing and dealer loans, which are loans to finance improvements to dealership facilities, to provide working capital, and to purchase and/or finance dealership real estate. Other commercial lending products include financing for parts and accessories, dealer fleets and storage centers.

GORES GUGGENHEIM INC

Honda Motor Co. Ltd.

Honda Motor is the parent company of a group mainly develop, manufacture and distribute motorcycles, automobiles, power products, and also provide financing for the sale of those products. Principal manufacturing facilities are located in Japan, the United States of America, Canada, Mexico, the United Kingdom, Turkey, China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam, Argentina, and Brazil. Co.'s principal business segments are motorcycles, automobiles, financial services, and power products & other business. Co.'s principal automobile products include passenger cars such as "Legend," "Accord," "Inspire," "Civic," "Insight," "City," "Acura RL," "Acura TL," "Acura TSX," and "Acura CSX".

Hyundai Motor Untitled

KIA Motors Corporation

KIA MOTORS CORPORATION is a Korea-based company principally engaged in the manufacture and distribution of automobiles. The Company's products include passenger vehicles, recreational vehicles (RVs), taxi, bus, commercial vehicles as well as hybrid vehicles under the brand names of K3, K5, K7, K9, Soul, Sedona, Sorento, Sportage and others. The Company also engaged in the manufacture of automobile components, as well as prevision of rental and maintenance services. The Company distributes its products within domestic market and to overseas markets, such as North America, Europe and other Asian countries, among others.

LI AUTO INC

Mercedes Benz Group AG

Mitsubishi Motors Corporation

Mitsubishi Motors and its affiliates are mainly engaged in the manufacture and sale of motor vehicles including passenger cars as well as component parts. Co. is engaged in the development, design, manufacture, assembly, sale and purchase, import and other transactions relating to automobiles, component parts and replacement parts, agricultural machinery and industrial engines; the sale and purchase of used automobiles; the sale of measuring equipment; and acting as insurance agents in accordance with laws relating to property damage insurance and to automobile damage indemnity insurance. In addition, Co. is involved in the provision of automobile leasing and sales finance services.

Renault SA

Renault is an automobile manufacturer. Co.'s activities have been organized into two main business sectors, in more than 120 countries: Automotive and Sales Financing. Co. designs, develops and sells passenger cars and light commercial vehicles. Following the acquisition of Romanian carmaker Dacia and Samsung Motors' operating assets in South Korea, Co. has three automotive brands: Renault, Dacia and Samsung. RCI Banque, Co.'s captive financing arm, finances sales of the Renault, Renault Samsung Motors (RSM) and Dacia brands, and, in Europe, the Nissan and Infiniti brands. In addition to these two activities, Co. has equity investments in the following two companies: Nissan and AVTOVAZ.

SAIC Motor Corporation Limited Class A

SAIC Motor Corporation Limited is a China-based company principally engaged in the research and development, manufacturing and distribution of whole vehicles and auto parts. The Company's main products include passenger cars, commercial vehicles, engines, gearboxes, power trains, chassis, interiors and exteriors, and automotive electronics, among others. The Company also involves in automobile services and trading and financial investment businesses. The Company operates it business in domestic markets and overseas markets.

Stellantis N.V.

SUBARU CORP

SUBARU and its affiliates are mainly engaged in the manufacture and sale of automobiles and aerospace-related equipment. The Automobiles segment is engaged in the manufacture, sale and repair of passenger cars and their components under the name of "SUBARU." The Aerospace segment is engaged in the manufacture, sale and repair of commercial and defense aircrafts, helicopters, unmanned aerial vehicles and their components. In addition, Co. is engaged in the manufacture, sale and repair of generators, engine-equipped machinery, agricultural machinery, construction machinery and their components; the leasing of real estate; and the manufacture and sale of temporary houses.

Suzuki Motor Corp.

Suzuki Motor is engaged in the manufacture and sale of automobiles and motorcycles in Japan and overseas. Co.'s business segments are automobiles, motorcycles, and marine. Automobiles segment manufactures and sells light automobiles, compact automobiles and general automobiles including "Swift," "Solio," "Jimny," "Spacia," and "Hustler." Motorcycles segment manufactures and sells compact two-wheel vehicles, light two-wheel vehicles, motorized bicycles and buggies such as "Hayabusa," "GSX-R1000R ABS," and "Skywave." Specialized Machinery segment manufactures and sells outboard motors, engines for snow vehicles, motorized wheelchairs, among others.

Tesla Inc

Tesla designs, develops, manufactures, sells and leases electric vehicles and energy generation and storage systems, and provides services related to its products. The company operates as two reportable segments: automotive, which includes the design, development, manufacturing, sales, and leasing of electric vehicles as well as sales of automotive regulatory credits; and energy generation and storage, which includes the design, manufacture, installation, sales, and leasing of solar energy generation and energy storage products, services related to such products, and sales of solar energy system incentives.

Toyota Motor Corp.

Toyota Motor is an automobile manufacturer. Co. is primarily engaged in the design, manufacture, and sale of sedans, minivans, compact cars, sport-utility vehicles, trucks and related parts and accessories throughout the world. Co. provides financing, vehicle and equipment leasing and certain other financial services primarily to its dealers and their customers to support the sales of vehicles and other products manufactured by Co. Co.'s principal business segments are automotive operations, financial services operations and other operations. Co. sells its vehicles in approximately 190 countries and regions, and markets for its automobiles in Japan, North America, Europe and Asia.

Volkswagen AG Pref

Volkswagen the parent company of the Volkswagen Group. It develops vehicles and components for the Group's brands, and produces and sells vehicles such as passenger cars and light commercial vehicles for the Volkswagen Passenger Cars and Volkswagen Commercial Vehicles brands. In the electricity sector, Co. performs electricity generation, sales and distribution together with a Group subsidiary. Western Europe, China, Brazil, the U.S., Russia, Mexico and Argentina are the key markets of the Group. The automotive division comprises the passenger cars, commercial vehicles, and power engineering segments, while the financial services division corresponds to the financial services segment.

Volvo AB Class B

Volvo is a manufacturer of trucks, buses, construction equipment and marine and industrial engines. Co.'s activities are organized into six areas: Group Trucks, which sells and markets trucks under Eicher, Mack, Renault Trucks, UD Trucks and Volvo brands; Construction Equipment, which includes equipment for construction and related industries; Buses, which includes buses and bus chassis for city, intercity and coach traffic; Volvo Penta, which manufactures engines and drive systems for boats and commercial craft; Governmental Sales, which manufactures special-purpose vehicles; and Volvo Financial Services, providing customer financing and leasing, dealer financing and fee based products.

XPeng Inc. ADR Sponsored Class A

Provider
Pelham Smithers Associates Ltd
Pelham Smithers Associates Ltd

Founded in 2009, Pelham Smithers Associates (PSA) provides market intelligence on Asian technology, focusing in particular on Japan. The industries covered by our team of specialists are: consumer electronics, telecomms, pharmaceuticals, internet, electronic parts and materials, automotive technology, retail and capital goods. 

PSA produces both company and sector reports. The focus of PSA’s research is to identify winners and losers as new technologies impact the top and bottom lines of corporations. Critical to our research is the clear explanation of how these new technologies work and how they impact companies and industries. 

The founding partners have worked closely together for twenty years and the team has more than doubled in size since 2012. 

Analysts
Julie Boote

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