Report
Joel Scheiman ...
  • Pelham Smithers

PSA Consumer Electronics / Electronic Materials: 2018: An Inflection Point for the Smartphone Industry and Read-Across to the Supply Chain: Highlighting TDK (6762 JP)

2018 is likely to be something of an inflection point for the smartphone industry. If the trend from 4Q 2017 continues, then this will be the first year that smartphone volumes decline. As an extension of that, it is also quite likely that ASPs will decline in 2018, although – worryingly for handset makers – bill of materials (BoM) could continue to rise.
Volumes and ASPs to Decline, Yet the BoM Could Continue to Rise
While this is clearly bad news for the handset makers, for which ones in particular is this the case? The obvious place to start is Apple (AAPL US), particularly given all the stories surrounding its 1Q 2018 production plans. However, since Apple is coming off something of a problematic year in 2017, as we discuss in our Feb 20 report ‘Apple iPhone Demand and Outlook’, there’s every reason to think it should do better in 2018.
Underlyings
Alps Alpine Co. Ltd.

Alps Electric is engaged in the manufacture and sale of electronic components and automotive audio equipment. Electronic Components segment offers detector switches, slide switches, power switches, tactile switches, magnetic sensors, humidity sensors, pressure sensors, connectors, encoders, potentiometers, multi control devices, communication modules, actuators and other electronic components for automobiles, smartphones, home appliances and other consumer electronics. Automotive Infotainment segment offers head units, navigation systems and rear view cameras. Logistics segment provides transportation, warehousing and forwarding services specializing in electronic components.

Apple Inc

Hon Hai Precision Industry Co. Ltd. GDR

HTC Corporation

HTC and its subsidiaries are engaged in the design, manufacture and sale of handheld wireless telecommunications devices based on Windows Mobile, Android and Brew Mobile Platform operating systems. In addition to product research and development, production and brand marketing, Co. also provides relevant technical and after-sales service support for all of its products. Co.'s phones are marketed and sold through telecom companies and retail distributors across Europe, America and Asia.

Lenovo Group Limited

Lenovo Group is an investment holding company. Through its subsidiaries, Co. is engaged in: manufacturing and distribution of IT products and provision of IT services; manufacturing of computers and peripheral equipment; provision of business planning, management, global supply chain, finance, and administration support services; R&D of mobile software; and distribution of IT products as well as mobile phone, smart phone and tablet, server and storage. Co. also provides a full complement of ENERGY STAR® qualified notebooks, desktops, workstations, monitors, and servers. As of Mar. 31, 2015, Co. oeprated four geographical segments, China, Asia Pacific, Europe-Middle East-Africa and Americas.

Murata Manufacturing Co. Ltd.

Murata Manufacturing is mainly engaged in the development, manufacture and sale of electronic components and modules in Japan, North America and certain other Asian and European countries. Co.'s products are sold mainly to electronics companies for use as components in telecommunication, computer, audio, video, automotive electronics and other electronic products. Co. is engaged in the development, manufacture and sale of electronic parts and related products, including components for capacitors and piezoelectric products, as well as modules products; the provision of welfare services, personnel services, education and training services, as well as the leasing and management of real estate.

Provider
Pelham Smithers Associates Ltd
Pelham Smithers Associates Ltd

Founded in 2009, Pelham Smithers Associates (PSA) provides market intelligence on Asian technology, focusing in particular on Japan. The industries covered by our team of specialists are: consumer electronics, telecomms, pharmaceuticals, internet, electronic parts and materials, automotive technology, retail and capital goods. 

PSA produces both company and sector reports. The focus of PSA’s research is to identify winners and losers as new technologies impact the top and bottom lines of corporations. Critical to our research is the clear explanation of how these new technologies work and how they impact companies and industries. 

The founding partners have worked closely together for twenty years and the team has more than doubled in size since 2012. 

Analysts
Joel Scheiman

Pelham Smithers

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