Self-Driving Cars: The Consequences for the Global Auto Industry
Introduction
No day passes without news updates on self-driving cars; on new autonomous drive technologies, partnerships forming, new timelines given.The majority of industry observers have concluded that there are majorchanges coming towards the auto industry which could have substantialconsequences for the existing players. We agree. As the shift from mechanical to electronic and from hardware to software takes place, it seems a straightforward conclusion to reach that the new participants in this game will gain the upper hand, with the old ones losing out. This seems even more the case given that not only is the product changing, but so potentially is the entire business model; with private car ownership being replaced by a fleet of self-driving taxis. However, automakers have been faced with challenges before, and are unlikely to give up that quickly. Many have the financial means to prepare for a transition whose initial deadline may fall in perhaps five to ten years.
In this report we provide a snapshot of: what is happening right now in the nascent autonomous drive (AD) industry; who the main participants are; what they have achieved so far; and what their objectives and strategies consist of. This includes not only automakers, but technology companies, chip makers, auto parts suppliers and ride-sharing services.
We also want to explore the two main risks to the existing auto industry:
- A potentially shrinking car pool, due to the rise of ride-hailing businesses using self-driving cars; and
- The threat of new participants, such as large tech companies pushing the traditional auto manufactures out of business since most of a car’s value will lie in a chip rather than in the engine.
Contents
Five Levels of Autonomous Driving - Page 5
A New World – Consequences of driverless cars for the public - Page 6
A New World – Consequences of driverless cars for automakers - Page 8
First Risk: A shrinking car pool - Page 8
Second Risk: New participants - Page 11
Opportunities for Automakers - Page 14
Who is doing what and when - an overview - Page 16
Toyota - Page 16
Honda - Page 18
Nissan - Page 19
Hyundai/Kia - Page 21
Volkswagen - Page 22
Audi - Page 24
BMW - Page 25
Daimler - Page 26
Peugeot - Page 28
JLR/ Tata - Page 28
Volvo (Geely) - Page 29
GM - Page 30
Ford - Page 31
Fiat Chrysler (FCA) - Page 32
Tesla - Page 33
Apple - Page 34
Google - Page 35
Uber - Page 37
Baidu - Page 38
Other Important Players - Page 40
AdasWorks, ARM/ SoftBank, Autoliv, Bosch - Page 40
Continental, Delphi, Denso - Page 41
Drive.ai, Grab, Hino, Hitachi Automotive Systems - Page 42
Infineon, Intel, LG Electronics, Microsoft, Mitsubishi Electronics - Page 43
Mobileye, Nvidia - Page 44
NuTonomy - Page 45
Nuro.ai, NXP, Oxbotica, Panasonic - Page 46
Renesas, Samsung Electronics, STMicroelectronics, Velodyne, Zoox, ZF - Page 47
A Game of Risk: Partnerships and the Open Platform Problem - Page 48
Other Strategic Decisions - Page 49
Full Autonomy vs Step-wise Implementation - Page 49
Luxury Models vs Full line-up - Page 50
ICEs vs EVs - Page 51
Self-learning (Deep learning) vs self-driving - Page 52
Automakers Chances to Succeed - Page 54
Toyota - Page 54
Honda, Nissan, Hyundai/Kia - Page 55
VW, Audi - Page 56
BMW, Daimler, Peugeot, JLR/Tata - Page 57
Volvo (Geely), GM, Ford - Page 58
FCA, Tesla - Page 59
Conclusion - Page 60
What to look out for - Page 60
Automakers: Top Contenders to Succeed - Page 61
Positioning of the Japanese Big Three - Page 61
Glossary - Page 63
Names of companies mentioned in this report - Page 65
Founded in 2009, Pelham Smithers Associates (PSA) provides market intelligence on Asian technology, focusing in particular on Japan. The industries covered by our team of specialists are: consumer electronics, telecomms, pharmaceuticals, internet, electronic parts and materials, automotive technology, retail and capital goods.
PSA produces both company and sector reports. The focus of PSA’s research is to identify winners and losers as new technologies impact the top and bottom lines of corporations. Critical to our research is the clear explanation of how these new technologies work and how they impact companies and industries.
The founding partners have worked closely together for twenty years and the team has more than doubled in size since 2012.
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