The PSA Research Round-Up for the Week to 17 Oct 2025

Weekly Comment Summary
Pelham Smithers considers the current applicability of lessons from the 1980s PC boom and the 2000 tech crash. He warns that an obvious difference between now and 2000 is that the semiconductor market had already peaked by the time the 1990s tech bubble burst, whereas now, semiconductor sales are at record high levels. However, there are other differences as well.

PSA Weekly Contents at a Glance
Reports / Flash Notes Summaries
1. Chinese Automakers Jeopardizing Japanese’ Positioning in Overseas Market
2. Internet Initiative Japan (3774 JT): Well-Positioned in Japan’s Enterprise IT Transformation
Company / Sector / Thematic Comments
Technology: Consumer Electronics, Gaming
1. Next Gen Xbox Gets Discussed
2. Nintendo Targeting 25mil Switch 2s to be Produced by March 2026
Technology: Industrial Electronics / Components / Semis & SPE / Precision
3. Hitachi Reminds Market of its AI Credentials – Is it in the Price?
4. Other News & Moves That Caught Our Eye
Chemicals / Materials
5. Japan’s Latest Step To Becoming More Competitive in Batteries
6. Tekscend Photomask Debuts on the TSE
7. Other News & Moves That Caught Our Eye
Capital Goods / Machinery / Auto Parts
8. Machinery Order Backlog Continues to Rise
9. Oracle Reassures on GPMs – Positive Readacross to Cable Makers
10. Other News & Moves That Caught Our Eye
Internet / eCommerce
11. Timee Falls to a One-month Low; Mercari Hallo to be Terminated
12. Demae-can Expects FY26 Sales to Recover
13. Recruit Shares Fall to One-Month Low
Enterprise Software / IT Services
14. Shift FY25 Results: Less Hiring Helps, But Need for Further Utilisation Rate Improvement Remains
15. Money Forward FY25 Q3: Sales Short of Consensus, but Operating Loss Much Narrower than Expected
16. BayCurrent FY25 Q2 Ebitda Short of Consensus Estimates, But Sales Ahead
Small- / Mid-Cap Insights
17. Foreign Visitors to Japan Rise +13.7% YoY in September
18. S-Pool Reports Weak FY25 Q3 Results / Considering Reorganization
19. TKP Posts Robust Q2 Results as Back to Office Push Continues
20. Amvis FY25 2H Affected by Investigation
Macro / Market / Strategy / Misc.
21. Tamaki Sets Down the Rules
22. Stalemate in Japanese Politics Prolonged
23. Other News & Moves That Caught Our Eye

List of Recently Published PSA Notes & Reports
Important Disclosure Statement from Pelham Smithers Associates Limited


PSA in the Press
Pelham Smithers features in the following articles:
Japan opposition in talks to challenge Sanae Takaichi after coalition collapse – Financial Times [12 Oct]
Excerpt: Pelham Smithers, a longtime Japan analyst, said that while the opposition parties could unify behind Tamaki, the LDP could still bring the JIP on board and securing its support would be easier without Komeito in the coalition.
Japan Ruling Coalition Collapse to Help Yen, Hurt Stocks: Strategists - Bloomberg – [10 Oct]
Excerpt: I think concerns about this hit the equity market today, but there’s probably further selling to come. I would expect a sell-off on Tuesday, unless the LDP can swap Komeito for Ishin or DPP in the next couple of days.

PSA Company Visits, Tours and Interviews
Visited: S-Pool (2471 JT), Curves Holdings (7085 JT), Treasure Factory (3093 JT)
Presentations at: Curves Holdings (7085 JT), Koshidaka Holdings (2157 JT), TKP (3479 JT)