The PSA Research Round-Up for Week to 7 November 2025

Weekly Comment Summary
The last month has seen a small rise in consensus OP for Topix for 2025, but a sizable one for 2027.
This is evidence that analysts are starting to struggle to justify valuations, so raising long term earnings forecasts to achieve fair value.
Pelham Smithers discusses.

PSA Weekly Contents at a Glance
Reports / Flash Notes Summaries
1. Toyota Motor (7203 JT) FY25 Outlook Overcast by Tariffs
2. FY25 Q2 Results Review for IT Service Companies
Company / Sector / Thematic Comments
Technology: Consumer Electronics, Gaming
1. Video Games Round-Up
2. DDR5 DRAM Prices Hit US$1/Gb For First Time Since 2018; Negative Readthrough for Nintendo
3. Nintendo FY25 Q2 OP +32% YoY, Full-Year Guidance Raised
4. Bandai Namco, Square Enix Deliver Earnings Beats
5. Other News & Moves That Caught Our Eye
Technology: Industrial Electronics / Components / Semis & SPE / Precision
6. Tokyo Seimitsu FY25 Q2 OP +9% YoY, Raises OP Guidance Slightly
7. Fallen Heroes” Deliver Mixed Results
8. Fujifilm’s FY25 Q2 Fails to Impress
9. Other News & Moves That Caught Our Eye
Chemicals / Materials
10. Sumitomo Chemical Companies Disappoint the Market
11. Asahi Kasei Shares Rise on Earnings, Share Buyback
12. UBE Corp Leaves Guidance Unchanged
13. Other News & Moves That Caught Our Eye
Autos / New Mobility
14. Hino: Sharp Drop in Sales, Raises FY25 Guidance on Currency, Costs
15. Toyota Raises FY25 Guidance on Currency
16. Mitsubishi Motors FY25 Q2 Profits Miss Estimates
17. Suzuki FY25 Q2 Short of Consensus
18. Nissan Books FY25 Q2 OP Gain FY25 Q2, but Net Loss Remains High
19. Mazda Keeps FY25 Guidance on Hopes of a Recovery in H2
20. Honda Lowers FY25 Guidance on Chip Shortage
21. Other News & Moves That Caught Our Eye
Capital Goods / Machinery / Auto Parts
22. Fanuc, Yaskawa Rise but Nabtesco Falls
23. Daikin In Line With Consensus
24. Daikin Regaining N. America Market Share
25. IHI Q2 In-Line
26. MHI Q2 OP -19% YoY Disappoints
27. Fujikura Q2 OP +60%, Beating Top Estimate
28. Other News & Moves That Caught Our Eye
Internet / eCommerce
29. LY Corp: Keeps FY25 Guidance
30. Kakaku.com’s Q2 Misses, Keeps Full-Year Guidance
31. Recruit Revises Upward
32. Mercari FY26 Q1 Beats
Enterprise Software / IT Services
33. IIJ: FY25 Q2 Preview / Results
34. JMDC: FY25 Q2 Preview / Results
35. TIS: FY25 Q2 Sails Past Consensus Estimates; Full-Year Forecasts Raised
36. MF Revises Down FY25 Forecasts Due to Subsidiary Sale
37. SRE: FY25 Q3 Preview
38. DTS Meets FY25 Q2 Consensus Estimates
Small- / Mid-Cap Insights
39. Insource FY25 Q4 and MTP Slightly Revised Up
40. Sanrio 1H Beat but it Has Concerns Over a Slowdown in the US
41. Amvis: FY26 Guidance Conservative
42. Kyoritsu Maintenance Q2 Affected by Earthquake Rumours But Outlook Solid
43. Intermestic October KPIs
Macro / Market / Strategy / Misc.
44. Wage Data Remains Disappointing
45. Is Daiwa Securities in Play?
46. Other News & Moves That Caught Our Eye
List of Recently Published PSA Notes & Reports
Important Disclosure Statement from Pelham Smithers Associates Limited



PSA in the Press
Several PSA analysts are quoted in the following Bloomberg articles:
1. Murata Shares Rise for Second Day on 2Q Results: Street Wrap – Bloomberg [4 Nov]
Excerpt: Pelham Smithers Associates (Pelham Smithers)
 Company raised its full-year operating profit target to ¥280b which “the market loved” when results came out
 Produced strong second quarter numbers despite “tough markets”
2. Nintendo Shares Soar After Switch 2 Target Hike: Street Wrap – Bloomberg [5 Nov]
Excerpt: Pelham Smithers Associates (Pelham Smithers)
 19mil target for Switch 2 sales still looks on the low side
 Full-year OP forecast fell short of market estimates, but it factors in tariff impacts, which analysts’ forecasts may not
 Target dividend payout ratio hike is positive for share price
3. Itochu Extends Gains on Dividend Hike, Stock Split: Street Wrap – Bloomberg [6 Nov]
Excerpt: Pelham Smithers Associates (Pelham Smithers)
 2Q OP slightly missed consensus, but after “poor figures” from industry peers on Tuesday, “was seen as a win”
 Earnings helped buoy sentiment slightly on Wednesday afternoon amid a broad market decline
4. Daikin Shares Rise, Eyes on Management Comments: Street Wrap – Bloomberg [6 Nov]
Excerpt: Pelham Smithers Associates (William Nestuk)
 Second-quarter operating profit of ¥125.3b was in line with consensus, though had thought Chemicals division would perform better
 Currency should help third-quarter and fourth-quarter recovery in North America sales
 Initial impression was somewhat negative.
5. Sanrio Shares Plunge 15% as Tariff Worries Hit US Sales Outlook – Bloomberg [6 Nov]
Excerpt: Pelham Smithers Associates (Hiroyuki Terada)
 Concerns about higher tariffs for US licensees led the company to slash full-year sales targets by around ¥3 billion for the Americas
 Investors likely need to see a US recovery to drive shares higher. A rise in licensee sign-ups could also help sentiment
 Sanrio plans to increase labor and marketing costs, which may also be seen as a negative
 While the company raised its overall full-year operating profit forecast, the hike was smaller than the earnings beat in 1H
6. Japanese automakers shift gears to India with $11 billion investment push – Bloomberg [6 Nov]
Excerpt: Pelham Smithers Associates (Julie Boote)
 “India offers better margins and fewer competitive pressures than China,” said Julie Boote of Pelham Smithers Associates.
7. Rohm Shares Plunge After Outlook Hike Disappoints: Street Wrap – Bloomberg [7 Nov]
Excerpt: Pelham Smithers Associates (Pelham Smithers)
 Second-quarter earnings results from Rohm were the standout from a positive viewpoint compared to other Japanese tech export companies
 The company has said it still doesn’t see its business as “being entirely out of the woods”
 Full-year operating profit upward revision still implies a ¥2b decline in the second half from the price surge in gold
Autos / New Mobility analyst Julie Boote features in this the following Reuters and Bloomberg (Japanese) articles:
8. Toyota, Honda turn India into car production hub in pivot away from China | Reuters
Excerpt: India is a good choice as a replacement market for China, said Julie Boote, autos analyst at Pelham Smithers Associates in London, citing low profit margins in China. For the time being, the Japanese think it's a much better market because they don't have to deal with the Chinese competitors, she said.
9. 日産で日本の顧客離れ深刻、ブランド回復には時間－見通しに甘さも - Bloomberg
Excerpt: Julie Boote, an analyst at British research firm Pelham Smithers Associates, said Nissan recognized that its target would be difficult to achieve, describing the addition of the condition as "a kind of hidden downward revision." Nissan excluded the impact of tariffs to make it easier to meet the target, but added, "Tariffs are an economic reality, just like currency and commodity price fluctuations. They cannot be ignored and need to be included when setting targets."
PSA Company Visits, Tours and Interviews
 Visited: Insource (6200 JT)
 1-1 Call with: Kyoritsu Maintenance (9616 JT), Amvis Holdings (7071 JT), Intermestic (262A JT)
 Presentations at: Sanrio (8136 JT), M&A Capital Partners (6080 JT), Open Up Group (2154 JT), Insource (6200 JT), Sumitomo Bakelite (4203 JT), Sumitomo Chemical (4005 JT), Asahi Kasei (3407 JT), Teijin (3401 JT), KH Neochem (4189 JT), Konica Minolta (4902 JT), Shin-Etsu Polymer (7970 JT), Fujifilm Holdings (4901 JT), UBE Corp (4208 JT), Recruit (6098 JT), Mercari (4385 JT), Toyota Motor (7203 JT), Mitsubishi Motor (7211 JT), Nissan Motor (7201 JT), Mazda Motor (7261 JT), Honda Motor (7267 JT), Nabtesco (6268 JT), Fanuc (6954 JT), IHI (7013 JT), Daikin (6367 JT), Denso (6902 JT), Mitsubishi Electric (6503 JT), Fujikura (5803 JT), MHI (7011 JT)