EUR 100.00 For Business Accounts Only

IBERIAN DAILY 13 SEPTEMBER (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

NEWS SUMMARY: ACCIONA, ACCIONA ENERGÍA, CAF, INDITEX, RENEWABLE ENERGY SECTOR, TELEFÓNICA.

Stock markets in wait-and-see mode
Stock markets saw a rather negative session after the money market raised the probability of rate rises to 45% at the next ECB meeting. In the Euro STOXX, Automobiles and Household led gains (only 7 out of 20 sectors saw gains), whereas Real Estate and Basic Resources posted the biggest drops. On the macro side, in the UK July’s unemployment rate climbed to 4.3%, in line with expectations. In Spain, August’s final inflation confirmed the preliminary 2.6%, whereas the core data “only” moderated one tenth to 6.1%. In Germany, September’s ZEW came in better than expected although the current situation component deteriorated more than expected, as well as the Eurozone’s regional component. The German finance minister, C. Lindner, suggested that the fiscal deficit in 2023 will end up at -2.5% of GDP (vs. the 4.25% initially expected) and expects to close out 2024 below -2.0%, thus distancing himself from a counter-cyclical fiscal policy despite the economic stagnation. In Brazil, August’s inflation rose slightly less than expected, coming in at 4.6% YoY.
What we expect for today
European stock markets would open with losses of -0.5%, which would recover with the US inflation data, which we expect to bring some relaxation in debt yields. Currently, S&P futures are down -0.07% (the S&P 500 ended unchanged vs. the European closing bell).). Volatility in the US rose (VIX 14.23). Asian stock markets are sliding (China’s CSI 300 -0.90%, Japan’s Nikkei -0.04%).
Today in the UK we will learn July’s industrial production, in the euro zone September’s industrial production and in the US August’s inflation. Debt auctions: Italy (€ 7.5 Bn in bonds due 2026, 2030 and 2053).


COMPANY NEWS

INDITEX. Better 2Q’23 results, positive indications on the trading update and guidance maintained. BUY
The 2Q’23 results were better than expected, with LfL sales rising around +17.5% (vs. around +15% BS(e) and consensus and around +16% from the trading update). EBIT also beat expectations (€ 1.68 Bn; +20.3% vs. +10.5% BS(e) and +17.9% consensus) thanks to solid gross margin performance (56.2%; +27bps vs. stable BS(e)) and operating costs (sales outpacing OPEX growth). The indications for 3Q’23 sales (01 Aug – 11 Sept) are positive (around +14%), and the 2023 targets are maintained (although the exchange rate effect is increased to around -3.5% vs. the previous -2.5%), which should serve to maintain the stock’s positive momentum (+44% in 2023; around +29% vs. IBEX and around +9% vs. the rest of the sector).