IBERIAN DAILY 14 NOVEMBER + 3Q’25 RESULTS. PREVIEWS (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)
NEWS SUMMARY: ACCIONA, ACCIONA ENERGÍA, ACS, AENA, COLONIAL, ELECTRICITY SECTOR, MERLIN, REPSOL, SANTANDER, TALGO.At the end of today’s report, and during the entire results season, we will include a presentation with positive and negative results highlights and previews for the 3Q’25 results to be released over the coming days in Spain.
Markets see profit taking
European stock markets ended up with profit taking in a session that ended worse than it began in a technical movement to digest the overbuying from the past few sessions. Thus, in the STOXX 600, the day’s big winners were Chemicals and Insurance, whereas Financial Services and Industrials ended with the biggest drops. On the macro side, in the UK the 3Q’25 GDP was disappointing due to the poor investments and the external sector. In the euro zone, September’s industrial output rose less than expected. In Brazil, September’s retail sales contracted unexpectedly. In China, October’s rise in industrial output slowed down mor than expected whereas the slowdown in investment aggravated and retail sales grew slightly more than expected (2.9% YoY vs. 3.0% previously). In US business results, Walt Disney beat expectations in profit but was worse in sales.
What we expect for today
European stock markets would open with drops of -0.3%, with the technology and industrial sectors dragged down by AI sales. Currently, S&P futures are down -0.10% (the S&P 500 ended -0.42% lower vs. the European closing bell). Asian markets are falling (China’s CSI 300 -0.87% and Japan’s Nikkei -1.90%).
Today in Spain we will learn October’s final and core inflation and in the euro zone final GDP and 3Q’25 employment.
COMPANY NEWS
ANA/ANE. 3Q’25Trading Statement; ANA’s guidance unchanged but ANE’s cut by -5% in operations. UNDERWEIGHT.
In ANE (66% ANA’s EV) the company cut its Operations EBITDA guidance’25 slightly from around € 1 Bn by -5% due mainly to lower production target, keeping the Asset Rotation EBITDA at between € 500-750 M. In Infrastructures (15% EV) the good business dynamics continue in terms of both volume and profitability. In ANA the company reiterated its 2025 Outlook: € 2.7 – 3 Bn of EBITDA, with greater contribution from Nordex and lower from ANE. Even though the company kept its targets unchanged (thanks to the good performance of Nordex, already known), we believe that ANE’s lower organic contribution (due to lower production) could justify a negative market reaction, mainly in the case of ANE but also in ANA as a result of the relevant weight of its energy division.
ACS, UNDERWEIGHT
The company released 3Q’25 results in line on the operating level (€ 783 M EBITDA vs. € 776 M consensus and € 805 M BS(e); +50% vs. 3Q’24). NFD remained practically flat at € 2.23 Bn (excl. IFRS16 and factoring), below our estimate of € 2.46 Bn and benefiting from better working capital performance (€ -68 M in 3Q’25 vs. € -205 M BS(e)). On the outlook level, ACS raised its guidance’25 of ordinary Net Profit growth to +20% and +25% (vs. +9% and +17% previously), in line with the revision made by Hochtief.
We do not expect a relevant impact after the +61% rally on the year (+18% vs. IBEX) and bearing in mind that much of the results was already known after Hochtief’s (~80% ACS) and Abertis’s released (~46% ACS). The company will hold its Data Centre CMD today at 12:00 (CET).
INMOBILIARIA COLONIAL. Results very much in line with expectations. OVERWEIGHT
The results are perfectly in line with what we expected, showing very similar trends to those seen over the past few quarters. Rental revenues € 296 M (+1.0% vs. +0.8% BS(e)); recurring EPS € 0.25/sh. (-3.9% vs. -3.5% BS(e)). LfL rental revenues grew +5% thanks to indexation and better prices in renewals. Recurring EPS fell -4% due to the higher number of shares following the capital increase in July’24. LTV rose +330bps vs. Dec’24 to 47%, perhaps the factor that the market will like the least, although the company has announced its intention of selling € 500 M of assets over the next 18 months. The guidance has been set at € 0.33-0.34 (vs. € 0.34 BS(e)).
MERLIN. 9M’25 results in line with expectations. OVERWEIGHT.
The results are reasonably solid and are very much in line with what we expected except in reported EBITDA, which is below due to the incentive plan (in line on the recurring level). Rents € 398 M (+6.6% vs. +6.8% BS(e)), EBITDA € 299 M (+7.3% vs. +9.6% BS(e)), FFO € 245 M (+6.5% vs. +4.8% BS(e)). LfL rents grew +3% (+3% in 1H’25 vs. +3% BS(e)) thanks to indexation and higher prices in renewals. The occupancy rate remains high (95.5%) and stable. Without an asset appraisal, NTA stands at € 15.17. The company has announced the payment of € 0.20/sh. (+11%; vs. € 0.20/sh. BS(e), 1.2% yield) as an interim dividend’25 (ex date 21 November). We do not expect a significant impact from these results.
TALGO, UNDERWEIGHT
9M’25 sales reached € 443.1 M (-11%), speeding up in 3Q’25 (+14%). 9M’25 EBITDA is a negative € -3.3 M, with 3Q’25 EBITDA standing at € 13.2 M (-21.4% vs. 3Q’24), with a margin of 7.6% (vs. 11% in 3Q’24). TLGO reiterated its 2025 targets and expects to finalise the process to strengthen capital and reinforce the balance sheet during 2025.
We do not expect much of an impact from these results, as despite the improved sales, pressure on margins remains.
Acciona is the parent company of a construction group. Co. is engaged in general construction activities in the areas of civil engineering and buildings, including railways, marine and hydraulic works, motorways and airports, town planning, conduits, pavements, parking lots, and industrial and urban buildings. In addition, Co. is engaged in the provision of real estate services, the operation of parking lots, telecommunications, services, ecology and alternative means of energy. Co.'s operations are organized in six business divisions: Infrastructures, Real Estate, Energy, Water, Environmental & Urban Services and Logistic & Transport Services.
ACS Actividades de Construccion y Servicios is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, Co.'s activities are divided into the following areas: Construction, engaged in the construction of civil works, and residential and non-residential building construction; industrial services, engaged in the development of applied engineering services, installations and the maintenance of industrial infrastructures in the energy, communications and control systems sectors; services, groups together environmental services, the outsourcing of building maintenance services, logistics and transport services; and concessions, mainly engaged in transport infrastructure concessions.
Aena SME SA, formerly Aena SA, is a Spain-based company primarily engaged in the airports operation. Its activities are divided into four segments: Airports, which comprises Aeronautical subdivision, responsible for the management of airports, jetways, security, handling, cargo and fuel services, among others, as well as Commercial subdivision, including duty-free and specialty stores, restaurant services, car rental, as well as banking services and advertising; Services outside the terminal, which manages real estate assets, such as parking lots, warehouses and lands; International, which comprises operations of Company's subsidiary, Aena Desarrollo Internacional SA, that invests in other airport owners principally in Mexico, Colombia and the United Kingdom; and Others, encompassing corporate activities. It manages tourism, hub and regional airports, as well as heliports and general aviation areas. Furthermore, its destination range comprises Europe, the Americas, Asia and Africa.
Banco Santander is a holding company, providing a range of financial products. Co.'s products and services include: retail banking business that covers all customer banking businesses; wholesale banking business; as well as asset management and insurance business. Co.'s principal operations are in Spain, the U.K., Portugal, Germany, Italy and Latin America. As of Dec 31 2014, Co.'s total assets amounted to Euro1,266,296,000,000 and total customer deposits amounted to Euro647,627,000,000.
Merlin Properties SOCIMI SA is a Spain-based company engaged in the operation of a real estate investment trust (REIT). The Company focuses on the acquisition, management and rental of commercial properties located in the Iberian Peninsula, primarily in Spain. The Company's activities are divided into the following segments: Office buildings, operating a portfolio of office space; High-street retail, engaged in leasing retail stores; Shopping centers, engaged in managing department stores; Logistics, operating logistics warehouses and distribution centers, and Others. The Company's other activities include property management services rendered to third parties.
Repsol is an oil and gas company. Co. is engaged in all the activities relating to the oil and gas industry, including exploration, development and production of crude oil and natural gas, transportation of oil products, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and natural gas, refining, the production of a wide range of oil products and the retailing of oil products, oil derivatives, petrochemicals, LPG and natural gas, as well as the generation, transportation, distribution and supply of electricity. Co. operates in more than 40 countries. Co.'s operations are divided into four segments: Upstream, Downstream, LNG and Gas Natural Fenosa.
Talgo is engaged in designing, manufacturing, repairing and maintaining the railway rolling stock, as well as the manufacturing, assembling, repairing and maintaining the engines, machinery and parts of the railway systems. Co. has an industrial presence in seven countries: Spain, Germany, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Russia, Saudi Arabia and U.S.A. Co. has an active fleet in Europe, Asia and North America that comprises of 94 high-speed trains and more than 1,400 Talgo tilting passenger cars. Also, Co. purchases, redesigns, constructs, leases and sells all types of real estate.
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