EUR 100.00 For Business Accounts Only

IBERIAN DAILY 29 JULY + 2Q’25 RESULTS. HIGHLIGHTS AND REST OF PREVIEWS (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

NEWS SUMMARY: ACCIONA, ACCIONA ENERGÍA, CAF, ENDESA, IBERDROLA, UNICAJA.

At the end of today’s report, and during the entire results season, we will include a presentation with positive and negative results highlights and previews for the 2Q’25 results to be released over the coming days in Spain.

After the agreement... losses in Europe
With the digestions of the trade agreement, the initial gains for European stock markets turned into drops near -0.5%. Negotiations on microchips, pharma products and alcoholic drinks will continue, while there is growing scepticism from some European politicians (like French PM F. Bayrou or G. Meloni). Following the agreement, the effective tariff rate would have risen to 17.3%, a high since 1930. In the STOXX 600, in a highly volatile session, the best-performing sectors were Energy (Trump warned that he would order new attacks against Irani nuclear facilities if the country were to attempt to reinitiate the bombed facilities) and Technology (after the US$ 16.5 Bn manufacturing agreement between Samsung and Tesla), whereas Media and Autos ended with the biggest corrections. On the macro side, in Mexico the unemployment rate for June remained at the 2.7% from the previous month (beating expectations). In US business results, Revvity and Cadence Design Systems were in line with expectations.
What we expect for today
European stock markets would see a bullish opening, led by the hardest hit sectors yesterday although the earnings calendar will set the pace . Currently, S&P futures are up +0.13% (the S&P 500 ended flat vs. the European closing bell). Asian markets are mixed (China’s CSI 300 +0.13% and Japan’s Nikkei -0.97%).
Today in Spain we will learn the first reading of the 2Q’25 GDP and June’s retail sales and in the US July’s Conference Board consumer confidence, June’s JOLTS job openings and May’s FHFA housing prices. In US business results PayPal, United Health, Procter&Gamble, Merck&Co, Sysco, Boeing, Starbucks, Booking, Electronic Arts and Visa, among others, will release their earnings.



COMPANY NEWS

ACCIONA. Results beating expectations, and following the strong performance we change our recommendation to UNDERWEIGHT.
The results beat expectations, due mainly to Nordex (€ 86 M of provisions recovered), although both Infra and other businesses also show figures above expectations, offsetting the Energy division. EBITDA came in at € 1.56 Bn (+57.3% vs. +50.4% BS(e) and +52.0% consensus), with Operations EBITDA reaching € 1.11 Bn (+12% vs. +5% BS(e)). The company reiterates its outlook’25. We welcome the traction gained from asset rotation in ANE, as well as the solid performance in the rest of the businesses (Infra/Nordex and the rest). However, following the stock’s strong performance in 2025 (+59% in absolute terms and +36.4% vs. IBEX), in the short term we do not see enough levers to raise our estimates and T.P. above a level yielding +10% upside, and thus we downgrade our recommendation to UNDERWEIGHT.

ACCIONA ENERGÍA. Results slightly below expectations. New asset rotation deal. We cut our recommendation to UNDERWEIGHT.
Results came in slightly below expectations in EBITDA (both total and generation) due to lower production in Spain and mainly to lower production and prices in the International business. The company announced a new sale: an agreement with Opdenergy for the sale of a 440MW wind asset portfolio for € 530 M. We welcome the momentum of asset rotation and the fact that the company kept its 2025 EBITDA/leverage guidance unchanged. However, following the good share performance in 2025 (+36.4% in absolute terms and +14% vs. IBEX) it now lacks upside and we do not see sufficient drivers in the short-term to raise our estimates and T.P. and thus we cut our recommendation to UNDERWEIGHT.

CAF. Results slightly below in sales, in line in EBIT/Net Profit and much better in cash. OVERWEIGHT
Order intake remains strong, leaving the backlog at a record high (€ 15.59 Bn, 3.7x sales). Sales reached € 2.18 Bn (+4.8% vs. +7.5% BS(e) and +8.2% consensus), slowing in 2Q’25 vs. 1Q’25 that was expected but much more pronounced than we expected due to the Rail business. 1H’25 EBIT totalled € 114 M (+11.8% vs. +12.7% BS(e) and +14.7% consensus). Cash flow is positive, coming in at € 0.3 M (much better), leaving NFD at € 225 M (vs. € 226 M in 2024 and € 276 M BS(e)) and NFD/EBITDA at 0.7x. The reception was negative (falling -1% vs. +0.9% previously), which we chalk up to the strong performance in 2025, when the stock has risen +57% in absolute terms (+34% vs. IBEX) and the weaker Rail sales in 2Q’25.

ENDESA, UNDERWEIGHT
The 1H’25 results are good, in line with the consensus and our estimates. 1H’25 EBITDA came in at € 2.71 Bn (+12% vs. 1H’24, vs. +12% BS(e) and +13% consensus) due to the improved Conventional Generation and Clients businesses, with resilient margins, a lack of a temporary tax and some stability in the distribution business. 1H’25 Net Profit stood at € 1.04 Bn (+30% vs. 1H’24, vs. +28% BS(e) and +31% consensus) due to the financial result and lower tax rate. NFD rose to € 9.9 Bn (vs. € 9.3 Bn previously), keeping the NFD/EBITDA ratio at 1.8x. The company reiterates its annual guidance (€ 5.4-5.6 Bn of EBITDA’25e and € 1.9-2.0 Bn of Net Profit’25e, in line with the consensus and our estimate) and states that the capital allotment will depend on the regulatory improvements. Separately, the company would have completed 40% of the 2025 share buyback programme (€ 500 M).
We expect a neutral market reaction to these results. In the Conference call (10:00 CET), the highlight will be the financial remuneration proposal for networks from the CNMC and the future capex strategy vs. ELE’s shareholder remuneration (where despite the absence of modifications by the CNMC, it would opt for the second option). We The attention will be also drawn to the negotiations on the extension of Almaraz’s shutdown, the responsibility for the power outage or potential M&A. In 2025, ELE share price has climbed +30% (vs. +20.4% IBE or +27.6% IBEX). In view of its good annual performance and the current uncertainties about the improvement that the CNMV could decide on the draft for the distribution and financial remuneration rate methodology recently made public we maintain our UNDERWEIGHT recommendation.

UNICAJA, UNDERWEIGHT
2Q’25 Results came in above expectations in NII (+3% vs. expectations) and slightly below in provisions, beating Net Profit expectations by +8%. The bank will pay a € 0.066/sh. interim dividend (3.1% yield; in line with expectations).
UNI raised its NII, fee revenues and ROTE guidance: (i) NII € 1.45 Bn vs. > € 1.4 Bn previously, in line now with the market consensus; we assume this increases the average level expected over the 2025-2027 period (> € 1.4 Bn vs. € ~1.38 Bn BS(e) and € 1.43 consensus); (ii) low single-digit increase in fee revenues vs. flat guidance previously (vs. +3.9% BS(e) and +1.7% consensus): (iii) improvement of adjusted ROTE to 12.5% CET1 from ~10% to ~11% vs. 9.6% BS(e) and 10.4% consensus).
We expect a positive market reaction to these results despite the excellent share price performance vs. sector (+39% in 3 months vs. +27% sector). Even though the stock is apparently trading at trough levels in P/E in absolute terms (0.9x), this is justified, in our view, by its still low ROTE (~9.6% 2025 adjusted for excess capital/ 8.6% without adjustment).