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INFORME DIARIO 21 JULIO (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

COMPAÑÍAS QUE APARECEN EN EL INFORME. ESPAÑA: ALMIRALL, ACCIONA, CELLNEX, GRIFOLS, LAR. EUROPA: BAYER, UNICH RE

Por fin llegó la fumata blanca…
Ligeras ganancias en la mayoría de plazas europeas a la espera del desenlace de la reunión de los 27 en Bruselas, donde finalmente hoy de madrugada se logró alcanzar un acuerdo histórico. El Fondo de Reconstrucción ascenderá a 750.000 M euros y el presupuesto plurianual comunitario a 1,07 billones de euros (vs. 1,1 inicial). Los desembolsos se distribuirán en 390.000 M euros de transferencias y 360.000 M euros en préstamos, de los que 250.000 M euros irán destinados al cambio climático. Durante la sesión previa, los sectores que mejor se comportaron del Euro STOXX fueron Tecnología y Servicios Financieros mientras que Viajes&Ocio y Energía terminaron con el peor comportamiento relativo con los mercados también impulsados por los avances de nuevas vacunas para el Covid-19 (la de Astrazeneca produciría respuesta inmune). Por el lado macro, desde el BCE L. De Guindos afirmó que espera ver fusiones bancarias en Europa próximamente y que el PIB 2T’20 de la región podría recoger una caída más leve de la inicialmente prevista (-13% ia). En EE.UU. las negociaciones entre demócratas y republicanos en torno al nuevo paquete fiscal (c.1 billon de dólares) parecen estar difíciles. Por otra parte, EE.UU. habría añadido 11 compañías tecnológicas y energéticas chinas a la lista restringida en EE.UU. En Japón la inflación de junio salió en línea, aunque la subyacente algo mejor. En Rdos. Empresariales en EE.UU. Halliburton y Manpower mejor, mientras que Cal-Maine Foods peor.

Qué esperamos para hoy
Las bolsas europeas abrirían con ganancias ante las buenas noticias procedentes del acuerdo europeo y las prometedoras noticias de los resultados de la vacuna de Oxford. En estos momentos, los futuros del S&P cotizan con subidas del +0,24% (el S&P 500 cerró con subidas del +0,46% respecto al precio al que cotizaba al cierre de los mercados en Europa). La volatilidad en EE.UU. bajó (VIX 24,46%). Los mercados asiáticos cotizan con subidas (Japón +0,8% y Hong Kong +1,9%).

Hoy el índice de la Fed de Chicago de junio. En Rdos. empresariales en EE.UU. Coca Cola, Philip Morris y Prologis entre otros. En subastas: Alemania (4.000 M euros en bonos a 2 años).


ESPAÑA

CELLNEX. Rdos. buenos y en línea. Mejoran guidance para incluir Arqiva y NOS. COMPRAR
Rdos. en línea con lo esperado con un EBITDA 2T'20 creciendo un +64,8% y un RLFCF (Recurrent Levered FCF) 1S'20 de 267 M euros (+54% y +6,9% orgánico vs 1S’19) que pone de manifiesto la solidez y elevada visibilidad del negocio, que ha mantenido las tasas de crecimiento pre-Covid'19. La compañía actualiza guidance’20 al alza hasta 1.160 y 1.180 M euros (c.+70% vs 1.065 y 1.085 M euros previo, y vs 1.115,9 M euros BS(e) y 1.126 consenso). Del mismo modo esperan un RLFCF creciendo > 70% (vs > 50% previo y vs +57,5% BS(e)). No esperamos impacto relevante tras el buen performance de la acción (+49% en absoluto en 2020 y +70,7% vs IBEX). La clave residirá en los mensajes que se ofrezcan en la call (22/07 a las 18:30) sobre el pipeline de operaciones inorgánicas y los rumores de ampliación de 3.000 M euros.

EUROPA

MUNICH RE. Avance de Rdos. 2T’20 mejores de lo esperado y cancelación definitiva de la recompra 20/21
MUV avanzó ayer un BDI 2T’20 de c.600 M euros (+48% vs consenso; +27% vs BS(e)), con impacto de -700 M euros por Covid-19 en siniestralidad, más que compensado por menor siniestralidad subyacente y buena evolución de Ergo. Anuncia además que cancela definitivamente la recompra’20/21 (1.000 M euros, c.3,5% de las acciones), suspendida en abril, porque ve oportunidades muy rentables de crecer en reaseguro ante el sustancial incremento de precios que está habiendo. No vemos riesgo de caída por los anuncios (no incluíamos la recompra 20/21 en valoración), y sí potencial de mejora de estimaciones por la aparente buena evolución en 2T’20 (a confirmar el 06/08), y sobre todo, por las positivas perspectivas en Reaseguro. Reiteramos COMPRAR.
Underlyings
Acciona SA

Acciona is the parent company of a construction group. Co. is engaged in general construction activities in the areas of civil engineering and buildings, including railways, marine and hydraulic works, motorways and airports, town planning, conduits, pavements, parking lots, and industrial and urban buildings. In addition, Co. is engaged in the provision of real estate services, the operation of parking lots, telecommunications, services, ecology and alternative means of energy. Co.'s operations are organized in six business divisions: Infrastructures, Real Estate, Energy, Water, Environmental & Urban Services and Logistic & Transport Services.

Almirall SA

Almirall is engaged in the acquisition, manufacture, storage, sale and mediation in the sale of pharmaceutical specialties and products and all manner of raw materials used to prepare pharmaceutical specialties and products. Also, Co. acquires, manufactures, storages, sales and mediates in the sale of cosmetics, chemical, biotechnological and diagnostic products for human, veterinary, agrochemical and food-industry use, as well as all manner of utensils, complements and accessories for the chemical, pharmaceutical and clinical industries. In addition, Co. is engaged in the acquisition, sale, lease, subdivision and development of land lots, land and properties of all kinds.

Bayer AG

Bayer is a life sciences group based in Germany. Co.'s operations are organized along three divisions: Pharmaceuticals (engaged in prescription pharmaceuticals for cardiology and women's healthcare); Consumer Health (engaged in non-prescription products in dermatology, dietary supplement, analgesic, gastrointestinal, allergy, cold and flu, foot care, sun protection and cardiovascular risk prevention categories); and CropScience (engaged in the development of seeds and plant traits; crop protection; and for gardens, the green industry and non-agricultural pest control). Co. also maintains an Animal Health business unit engaged in the development of products for farm and companion animals.

Cellnex Telecom S.A.

Cellnex Telecom SA is a Spain-based company engaged in the wireless telecommunications (telecom) business. Its activities are divided into three segments: Broadcasting infrastructure, Telecom site rental, as well as Network services and other. The Broadcasting infrastructure division comprises distribution and transmission of television (TV) and frequency modulation (FM) radio signals, operation and maintenance (O&M) of radio broadcasting network, as well as over-the-top (OTT) radio services, among others. The Telecom site rental division provides access to wireless infrastructure, primarily through infrastructure hosting and telecom equipment co-location, mainly for mobile network operators and other wireless and broadband telecom network operators. The Network services and other division offers connectivity services for a variety of telecom operators and radio communication, among others. The Company also develops 5th generation mobile networks (5G) through Alticom BV.

Lar Espana Real Estate SOCIMI SA

Lar Espana Real Estate SOCIMI SA is a Spain-based company primarily engaged in the operation of retail Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs). The Company specializes in acquiring, managing and renting real estate assets within the Spanish market. Its business activities are divided into three segments: Shopping Centers, Offices, as well as Logistics. The Shopping Centers area is responsible for operation of a number of shopping malls, namely Txingudi, Las Huertas, Albacenter, Anec Blau, Hiper Albacenter, and Nuevo Alisal, among others. The Offices segment invests in office properties, such as Arturo Soria, Cardenal Marcelo Spinola, Egeo and Eloy Gonzalo. The Logistics division focuses on managing logistics warehouses, including Alovera I and Alovera II. The Company also owns a plot for residential properties development. It is a parent of a number of entities, such as Lar Espana Inversion Logistica SA, Gran Via Centrum Holdings SAU, Global Noctua and Puerta Maritima Ondara.

Munich Reinsurance Company

Muenchener Rueckversicherungs-Gesellschaft is engaged in reinsurance, primary insurance and asset management. Co.'s international life business is written in the Life Division. The Global Clients and North America division manages accounts with international insurance groups. The Europe and Latin America division manages property-casualty business in Europe, Latin America and the Caribbean. The Germany, Asia Pacific and Africa division conducts property-casualty business in Germany, Africa, Asia, Australia and the Pacific Islands. The Special and Financial Risks division manages the classes of credit, aviation and space, agriculture, enterprise and contingency risks.

Talgo SA

Talgo is engaged in designing, manufacturing, repairing and maintaining the railway rolling stock, as well as the manufacturing, assembling, repairing and maintaining the engines, machinery and parts of the railway systems. Co. has an industrial presence in seven countries: Spain, Germany, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Russia, Saudi Arabia and U.S.A. Co. has an active fleet in Europe, Asia and North America that comprises of 94 high-speed trains and more than 1,400 Talgo tilting passenger cars. Also, Co. purchases, redesigns, constructs, leases and sells all types of real estate.

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