INFORME DIARIO 28 FEBRERO (ANÃLISIS BANCO SABADELL)
COMPAÑÃAS QUE APARECEN EN EL INFORME. ESPAÑA: ACCIONA, ATRESMEDIA, C. OCCIDENTE, COLONIAL, ENCE, FERROVIAL, IAG, INDRA, NATURGY, TALGO, TÉCNICAS REUNIDAS, VISCOFAN. EUROPA: AB INBEV, ENI, MUNICH RE.Volvió la tormenta
Las pérdidas se aceleraron ayer en todas las plazas de Europa, con EE.UU. registrando la mayor caÃda desde may’11. En el Euro STOXX, todos los sectores cerraron con pérdidas siendo Ocio y Alimentación los que más cayeron y Utilities y Telecos los que menos. Por el lado macro, en España, la inflación preliminar de febrero se desaceleró conforme a lo esperado. En la Eurozona, la M3 de enero repuntó en lÃnea con lo esperado y el Ãndice de confianza económica de febrero avanzó por encima de lo previsto. Desde el BCE, C.Lagarde puntualizó que la situación económica provocada por el coronavirus no requiere de momento acciones extraordinarias. En EE.UU los pedidos de bienes duraderos core de enero repuntaron más de lo esperado. En Japón, tanto la producción industrial como las ventas al por menor de enero avanzaron inesperadamente mientras que la tasa de paro repuntó más de lo previsto y la inflación en Tokio se moderó más de lo esperado. En Rdos. empresariales en EE.UU. NRG Energy, CenterPoint mejor de lo esperado mientras que Nielsen Holdings y Flir Systems peor de lo esperado.
Qué esperamos para hoy
Las bolsas europeas abrirÃan con caÃdas del -4,0% que irÃan moderándose a lo largo de la sesión. En estos momentos, los futuros del S&P cotizan con caÃdas del -1,75% (el S&P 500 cerró con caÃdas del -3,3% respecto al precio al que cotizaba al cierre de los mercados en Europa). La volatilidad en EE.UU. subió (VIX 39,16%). Los mercados asiáticos que están abiertos cotizan con caÃdas (Japón -3,67% y Hong Kong -2,81%).
Hoy en Alemania el número de desempleados y la inflación de febrero. En la Eurozona la inflación de febrero. En EE.UU. el gasto personal de febrero. En Rdos. empresariales en EE.UU.Edison International, Monster Beverage y Mylan NV entre otros.
ESPAÑA
ACCIONA. Rdos. 4T’19 por encima de lo esperado en EBITDA comparable. VENDER.
Publicó a cierre unos Rdos. 2019 que estuvieron por encima de lo esperado en EBITDA comparable y bastante en lÃnea en DFN. AsÃ, en el acumulado del año el EBITDA comparable supone una mejora de +2,7% vs nuestras estimaciones (+4,6% vs consenso) sobre todo por Agua e Inmobiliaria. Esto supone un +12% vs 2018 en comparable (según la definición de ANA), superando el guidance (“un digito altoâ€). La DFN se situó en 5.317 M euros, en lÃnea con nuestra estimación (y ligeramente por encima del consenso) lo que deja la DFN/EBITDA’19 en 3,9x (en lÃnea con el guidance). A pesar del +22% vs IBEX en el año, esperamos una acogida positiva dado que el EBITDA estuvo mejor de lo esperado. Habrá conference call a las 11:00h.
FERROVIAL. Rdos. 4T’19 por debajo en operativo pero mejores en caja. COMPRAR.
El EBITDA se situó por debajo de nuestras estimaciones y las de consenso (88 M euros vs 110 M euros BS(e) y 108 M euros consenso) a pesar de unas ventas superiores debido a una menor rentabilidad en Autopistas (75% del P.O.; margen 64,2% vs 68,3% consenso). Buena evolución de la caja ex infra, que mejoró hasta los 1.632 M euros (vs ~1.161 M euros BS(e)) gracias a un destacable comportamiento del circulante (+562 M euros en 4T’19). Esperamos un sesgo negativo en la acogida teniendo en cuenta la evolución operativa más débil y el excelente performance del valor en el último año (+40% vs IBEX). Nosotros seguimos viendo upside adicional en valoración a través del desarrollo de nuevos proyectos greenfield por lo que mantenemos COMPRAR.
INDRA. Rdos. buenos en caja y contratación. Guidance’20 por encima del consenso. COMPRAR.
Destacamos positivamente la generación de caja (246 M euros en 4T'19) y el crecimiento de la cartera de pedidos (+11%, que supera los 4.500 M euros; 1,4x ventas cifra record de la compañÃa) en unos Rdos. que han estado por debajo en ventas (por la caÃda de doble dÃgito en transporte y tráfico por difÃcil comparativa vs 4T'18) y en lÃnea en el resto de métricas. Con respecto a los objetivos'20 esperan: crecimiento de ventas de dÃgito medio (vs +2,2% BS(e) y +3,8% consenso), crecimiento de EBIT > +15% (superior a 255 M euros, vs 254 M euros BS(e) y 246 M euros consenso) y FCF > 150 M euros (vs 173 M euros BS(e)) que incluye WC. Destacar que el guidance no incluye el impacto de SIA, que añadirá c.+2% ventas y c.+2,7% EBIT). Esperamos impacto positivo.
TALGO. Rdos. 4T’19 en lÃnea con nuestra estimación pero por debajo del consenso. COMPRAR.
Publicó a cierre unos Rdos. 4T’19 muy en lÃnea con nuestra estimación pero ligeramente por debajo del consenso en ventas (-4,0%) y EBITDA ajustado (-6,5%) con un margen -50 pbs por debajo, aunque cumpliendo el guidance de un 18% de margen para el año. La caja neta se sitúa en 59 M euros, en lÃnea con nuestra estimación pero de nuevo peor que el consenso que esperaba 80 M euros. El guidance anunciado de ventas y margen para 2020 estarÃa en lÃnea con nuestra estimación y el consenso. Esperamos una acogida neutra o ligeramente negativa en la medida que, a pesar de estar muy en lÃnea con nuestra estimación y presentar un guidance razonable, están por debajo del consenso en margen EBITDA y caja neta. El valor acumula un -5% vs IBEX en el año.
T. REUNIDAS. Comienza a cumplirse el guion en márgenes. Revisamos P.O. +10%. COMPRAR
Desglosamos nuestra revisión hasta 28,68 euros/acc. (+40% pot) en : (i) -+12% por mejor posición de caja’19; (ii) +3% al extrapolar mejora vista del circulante a medio plazo y una puntal mayor contratación en 2020; y (iii) en negativo, -5% por una provisión fiscal contabilizada en el 4T’19 que se traducirá en salida de caja en el corto plazo. El negativo performance del valor desde que reiteró guidance de mejora de márgenes a finales de 2019 (-5,4% vs IBEX) sitúa a TRE cotizando a niveles de cero credibilidad, es decir margen EBIT a perpetuidad en lÃnea con el reportado a 4T’19 (2%) vs niveles por encima del 3% del guidance, en lÃnea con nuestra estimación. +-250 p.b. en margen recurrente implica +-4,7% en P.O. y +-250 M euros de contratos anuales +-3,6%.
EUROPA
ENI, COMPRAR
Con antelación a la presentación de Rdos. 4T’19, ENI ha comunicado un Plan Estratégico a 2050, asà como un plan de acción para el periodo 2019/22. En una primera lectura destacamos los siguientes mensajes: (i) Compromiso de reducir un -80% las emisiones GHG en 2050 (vs recomendación del -70% de IEA para cumplir el acuerdo de ParÃs). (ii) Producción: mantienen el objetivo de crecimiento del +3,5% TACC’18/25 (vs +3,0% BS(e)). (iii) Capex: Hasta 2023 establecen un objetivo de 32.000 M euros (vs 33.326 BS(e) y vs 33.000 antes). (iv) PolÃtica de remuneración al accionista: Anuncian el pago de un DPA’20 de 0,89 euros (+3,4% vs 2019, vs 0,88 BS(e) y consenso; 5,4% yield). Además anuncian que un programa de recompra de acciones de 400 M euros en 2020 (0,9% capital). La novedad más positiva de esta presentación viene por el lado de la remuneración al accionista, con el anuncio de que mantienen el programa de recompra de acciones. Esta posibilidad estaba en duda al situarse el Brent en c. 50$/b, que está claramente por debajo de la referencia aportada en le pasado por ENI para llevar a cabo este tipo de iniciativas (>60$/b). Desde el punto de vista operativo, lo expuesto no suponen una novedad relevante, aunque vemos un ligero sesgo positivo por el lado del Capex (algo menor de lo previsto).
MUNICH RE. Totalmente lÃnea en Rdo. Operativo aunque peor en reaseguro No Vida. VENDER
Resultados 2019 con lectura mixta, En Reaseguro No Vida el RC asciende a 105% vs 102% esperado por mayor impacto de catástrofes naturales, mientras que el resto de los negocios se han comportado mejor, especialmente Ergo (con menor RC al esperado). Con todo consigue un BDI de 2.700 M euros vs 2.500 M euros pre-anunciados, que le sostiene una elevada S-II de 237% y un incremento del DPA a 9,80 euros/acc. (vs 9,70 euros/acc. esperado; yield 4% a lo que hay que añadir la recompra de acciones de 1.000 M euros ya anunciada 2,8% de su capitalización). La nota discordante ha sido el mantenimiento del outlook’20 a pesar de contar con renovaciones de tarifas al alza en reaseguro. No esperamos un impacto relevante de estos Rdos.
Acciona is the parent company of a construction group. Co. is engaged in general construction activities in the areas of civil engineering and buildings, including railways, marine and hydraulic works, motorways and airports, town planning, conduits, pavements, parking lots, and industrial and urban buildings. In addition, Co. is engaged in the provision of real estate services, the operation of parking lots, telecommunications, services, ecology and alternative means of energy. Co.'s operations are organized in six business divisions: Infrastructures, Real Estate, Energy, Water, Environmental & Urban Services and Logistic & Transport Services.
Acerinox is the parent company of a group engaged in the manufacture and sale of flat and long stainless steel products, and stainless steel wires. Co.'s major products include slabs, billets, black coils, plates, hot-rolled coils, hot-rolled sheets, flat bars, hot-rolled re-bars, hot-rolled black bars, engraved sheets, cold-rolled coils, cold-rolled sheets and circles. Co. also provides long stainless steel products, such as wire rods, angles, hot rolled flat bars, hot rolled re-bars, reinforced bars in coils, cold rolled re-bars, hot rolled black bars, cold drawn bars, and smooth turned bars. In addition, Co. offers wires, welding wire bars, and bars for electrodes.
Amadeus is a transaction processor for the global travel and tourism industry. Co. provides transaction processing power and technology solutions to both travel providers (including full service carriers and low-cost airlines, hotels, rail operators, cruise and ferry operators, car rental companies and tour operators) and travel agencies (both online and offline). Co. acts both as a worldwide network connecting travel providers and travel agencies through a processing platform for the distribution of travel products and services (through the Distribution business), and as a provider of a portfolio of IT solutions which automate certain business processes (through the IT solutions business).
Atresmedia Corporacion De Medios De Comunicacion is a television and radio broadcasting company based in Spain. Co. is engaged in the indirect management of television and radio services, which include the broadcasting, creation, production and distribution of television and radio programming, and the sale of advertising time. Group companies mainly carry on business activities relating to the production, copying and broadcasting of sounds and images, and TV and Internet home shopping. Co. provides National and World Digital Television Services. Co. is the parent company of Grupo Antena 3.
CIE Automotive is the parent company of an industrial group formed by several companies that are engaged in the design, manufacture and sale of automobile component and sub-units on the world market. In addition, Co. is also engaged in the bio-fuels business which is in the initial stages of development and is made up of various companies devoted to the production and distribution of bio-fuels.
Ence Energia Y Celulosa is engaged in the manufacture and commercialization of wood pulp and derivatives. Co. divides its activities into the following two business lines: Forest Division: Co. manages timberlands in South America and the Iberian Peninsula. Co. is involved in trading of wood, and supplies solid wood products including: plywood, sawn timber, parquet flooring and glued-edge paneling. Co. is involved in forest and environmental consulting. Pulp Division and Energy Production: Co. is engaged in the production of Eucalyptus globulus-based TCF and ECF paper pulp. Co. is also involved in the generation of electricity through biomass power producing plants.
Eni is engaged in the oil and gas exploration and production, gas marketing operations, management of gas infrastructures, power generation, petrochemicals, oil field services and engineering industries. Co.'s operations are divided into three segments; Exploration and Production (oil and natural gas exploration and field development and production, as well as LNG operations), Gas and Power (supply, trading and marketing of gas and electricity, managing gas infrastructures for transport, distribution, storage, re-gasification, and LNG supply and marketing), and Refining and Marketing (supply of crude oil, refining and marketing of refined products). Co. maintains operations in 73 countries.
Ferrovial is a transportation company based in Spain. Co. is engaged in operations in the transportation sector. Co. specializes in the design, construction, management, administration and maintenance of transport infrastructures. Co.'s services range also includes the maintenance of parking lots, and land-, sea- and air-based transport networks. Co. is also engaged in the promotion and operation of short-stay parking lots, parking regulation and management services and promotion and sale of residents' parking.
Fluidra is engaged in the manufacture and commercialization of accessories and specific products for swimming pools, irrigation, and water treatment and purification systems.
Fomento de Construcciones y Contratas is the parent company of a group engaged in sanitation services, cleaning, maintaining, purification and distribution of water, construction of highways, hydraulic works, marine works, air and rail transport infrastructure, urban developments, housing, non-residential buildings, office buildings, toll highways, parking garages, marinas and water treatment plants. Co. is also engaged in the manufacture and sale of cement and cement infrastructures, such as precast concrete elements; and in the financial markets, and real estate development, leasing and tourism.
Grupo Catalana Occidente is an insurance group based in Spain. Co. is engaged in insurance and reinsurance activities, including commercial, life, disability, and automobile insurance. Co. is also engaged in the sale of annuities and pension funds. Co.'s operations are organized along two businesses: Traditional business (insurance) and Credit Insurance business. Co.'s main markets are located in Spain, Germany, United Kingdom, France and the Netherlands. Co. maintains a presence in more than 40 countries.
Indra Sistemas is engaged in the design, development, manufacture, assembly, repair, and installation of computer software and applications. Through its subsidiaries, Co. is engaged in consulting, graphic design and multimedia, web design and marketing, internet development and electronic trade, systems integration and hosting geared business to business and business to consumer, as well as in internet financing and electronic marketing. Co. serves defense and security, transport and traffic, energy and industry, telecom and media, finance and insurance, and public administration and healthcare markets. Co. operates primarily in Europe, the United States, Canada, and Latin America.
International Airlines Group is an international scheduled airline and global premium airlines. Co.'s principal place of business is London with significant presence at Heathrow, Gatwick and London City airports.
Masmovil Ibercom SA, formerly World Wide Web Ibercom SA, is a Spain-based company primarily engaged in the telecommunication sector. The Company focuses on the sale and distribution services for Internet, Data Center and Telecommunications. The Company's product and services portfolio comprises Internet access through Asymmetric Digital Subscriber Line (ADSL) and Symmetric Digital Subscriber Line (SDSL) technologies, Internet domains and Domains Management and Registration Service through IberDNS application, Web hosting, virtual servers, dedicated servers, telephony services and routers. The Company also offers collocation services through two Internet Data Centers located in Madrid and San Sebastian. It operates through subsidiaries, such as Embou Nuevas Tecnologias SL and Ebesis Sistemas SL, among others. The Company owns a number of brand names, such as Pepephone, Yoigo and Llamaya.
Muenchener Rueckversicherungs-Gesellschaft is engaged in reinsurance, primary insurance and asset management. Co.'s international life business is written in the Life Division. The Global Clients and North America division manages accounts with international insurance groups. The Europe and Latin America division manages property-casualty business in Europe, Latin America and the Caribbean. The Germany, Asia Pacific and Africa division conducts property-casualty business in Germany, Africa, Asia, Australia and the Pacific Islands. The Special and Financial Risks division manages the classes of credit, aviation and space, agriculture, enterprise and contingency risks.
Sacyr is the parent company of a group engaged in the acquisition, development and construction of urban properties for their subsequent rental or resale. Co. primarily leases and sells office buildings and complexes, housing units, and shopping centers. Co. is also engaged in the operation of urban car parking facilities. Co. offers services related to the real estate industry such as technical assistance in energy savings, inventory management, architectural design, telecommunications management, property maintenance, as well as gardening and landscaping. Co. also provides consulting services in the real estate fund management sector.
Talgo is engaged in designing, manufacturing, repairing and maintaining the railway rolling stock, as well as the manufacturing, assembling, repairing and maintaining the engines, machinery and parts of the railway systems. Co. has an industrial presence in seven countries: Spain, Germany, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Russia, Saudi Arabia and U.S.A. Co. has an active fleet in Europe, Asia and North America that comprises of 94 high-speed trains and more than 1,400 Talgo tilting passenger cars. Also, Co. purchases, redesigns, constructs, leases and sells all types of real estate.
Tecnicas Reunidas is a general contractor company based in Spain. Co. engages in the engineering, design, and construction of industrial facilities for refining and petrochemical, oil and gas, power, and infrastructure and industries sectors worldwide. Co. constructs nuclear plants, conventional thermal plants, and renewable energy and cogeneration facilities for power sector; refineries and facilities for petrochemicals; water treatment, desalination, waste management, air, land, and marine transport facilities; and liquefaction, and storage facilities, as well as oil and gas fields and pipelines. Co. also provides engineering, management and operating services for industrial plants.
Viscofan is the parent company of the Viscofan Group. Co. is divided into two major operational subgroups. The companies comprising the Naturin GmbH subgroup are engaged in the manufacture and distribution of artificial casings (small and big diameter collagen and plastics) for the meat industry. Through its wholly-owned subsidiary IAN, S.A., Co. also manufactures and distributes canned vegetables (asparagus, olives and tomato).
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