EUR 100.00 For Business Accounts Only

IBERIAN DAILY 15 AUGUST (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

NEWS SUMMARY: N/A.

Whether inflation will not rise or whether the Fed will be forced to cut rates in September is not so clear anymore
The release of July’s industrial production prices, speeding up significantly more than expected, suggests that companies are indeed seeing the inflationary pressure from tariffs but not yet passed on to final prices, which could also have a negative impact on their margins in the 3Q’25. Following the data release, with weekly jobless claims also easing slightly more than expected, the expectations of rate cuts by the Fed in September priced in by the futures market cooled off (with sovereign debt yields widening). Notwithstanding, this did not entail an overly negative reaction on stock exchanges, with European indices ending with gains once more. Thus, in Europe in the STOXX 600 Industrials, Autos and Utilities led gains vs. the drops of Basic Resources. On the macro side, in addition to the US data outlined, in the euro zone June’s industrial output slowed down more than expected whereas the second reading of 2Q’25 GDP confirmed the preliminary data. In Japan, both the 2Q’25 GDP and June’s industrial output grew more than expected. In China, July’s retail sales and industrial output slowed down more than expected, with residential sales also falling more than expected.
What we expect for today
European stock markets would open with gains of around +0.5%. Currently, S&P futures are +0.25% higher (the S&P 500 ended +0.30% higher vs. the European closing bell). Asian markets are climbing (China’s CSI 300 +0.8% and Japan’s Nikkei +1.6%).
Today in the euro US we will learn August’s Empire manufacturing index and the University of Michigan consumer confidence, July’s import prices, retail sales and industrial output.