IBERIAN DAILY 30 NOVEMBER (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)
NEWS SUMMARY: ACERINOX, BBVA, CELLNEX, CIE AUTOMOTIVE, ENDESA, GRIFOLS, OHLA.The IBEX consolidates 10,000 points
After more than three and a half years, the IBEX managed to consolidate 10,000 points in another session of gains, with sovereign debt continuing to tighten. In the STOXX 600, most sectors closed with gains, led by Autos and Real Estate, whereas Energy and Basic Materials fell the most. On the macro side, in the euro zone, November’s economic confidence index rose slightly more than expected. In Germany and Spain, November’s inflation fell more than expected to 3.2% YoY. The OECD warned in its latest economic update that the ECB and BoE should not lower rates until 2025 due to the rigid inflation figures. Additionally, it lowered the expected growth for Spain to 1.4%, requesting further adjustments. In the US, the 3Q’23 GDP was raised by +0.2pp to 5.2% in the second reading. Mixed data in Japan, retail sales rose at a lower pace whereas industrial output for October grew more than expected. In China, November’s manufacturing PMIs slowed more than expected in November, hitting activity slowdown territory.
What we expect for today
European stock markets would open flat in a session in line with yesterday’s performance and awaiting the decisions to be made by OPEC+ on their joint oil production. Currently, S&P futures are up +0.17% (the S&P 500 ended down -0.26% vs. the European closing bell). Volatility in the US rose (VIX 12.98). Asian stock markets are rising (China’s CSI 300 +0.13%, Japan’s Nikkei +0.50%).
Today in the euro zone we will learn November’s inflation and October’s unemployment rate (in Brazil and Mexico, as well), in the US personal outlays, October’s underlying consumption deflator and weekly jobless claims. OPEC+ will meet today.
COMPANY NEWS
ACERINOX. CAPITAL MARKETS DAY WITH SIGNIFICANT CONFIDENCE. Trading at >4.5x EV/EBITDA'23e vs. 8.9x in the past 10 years. BUY.
Much of its message was related to VDM and to its special alloys, as well as to the company’s recent success, robust balance sheet and positive operating performance (NAS and VDM mainly). Specifically, it insisted on the multiple possibilities provided by the special alloy market (currently ~16% EBITDA’23e), which leads us to believe that a corporate deal could be closer. This curbs, in our view, the possibility of share buyback plans in the very short-term. No visibility on the doubts surrounding prices in Europe (being also cautious for the 1Q), in line with our view that the normalisation will not materialize before the end of the 1H’24.
Acerinox is the parent company of a group engaged in the manufacture and sale of flat and long stainless steel products, and stainless steel wires. Co.'s major products include slabs, billets, black coils, plates, hot-rolled coils, hot-rolled sheets, flat bars, hot-rolled re-bars, hot-rolled black bars, engraved sheets, cold-rolled coils, cold-rolled sheets and circles. Co. also provides long stainless steel products, such as wire rods, angles, hot rolled flat bars, hot rolled re-bars, reinforced bars in coils, cold rolled re-bars, hot rolled black bars, cold drawn bars, and smooth turned bars. In addition, Co. offers wires, welding wire bars, and bars for electrodes.
Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria is an international financial group, engaged primarily on providing banking services and consumer finance to private individuals and businesses in Spain and Portugal; providing real estate activity in Spain; providing services to international companies and investment banking, capital markets and treasury management services to clients; and providing the banking, insurance and pension businesses in Mexico and the U.S., as well as in South America.
Cellnex Telecom SA is a Spain-based company engaged in the wireless telecommunications (telecom) business. Its activities are divided into three segments: Broadcasting infrastructure, Telecom site rental, as well as Network services and other. The Broadcasting infrastructure division comprises distribution and transmission of television (TV) and frequency modulation (FM) radio signals, operation and maintenance (O&M) of radio broadcasting network, as well as over-the-top (OTT) radio services, among others. The Telecom site rental division provides access to wireless infrastructure, primarily through infrastructure hosting and telecom equipment co-location, mainly for mobile network operators and other wireless and broadband telecom network operators. The Network services and other division offers connectivity services for a variety of telecom operators and radio communication, among others. The Company also develops 5th generation mobile networks (5G) through Alticom BV.
CIE Automotive is the parent company of an industrial group formed by several companies that are engaged in the design, manufacture and sale of automobile component and sub-units on the world market. In addition, Co. is also engaged in the bio-fuels business which is in the initial stages of development and is made up of various companies devoted to the production and distribution of bio-fuels.
Endesa is engaged in the production, transmission, distribution, and supply of electricity, through hydroelectric, fossil fuel, and nuclear generation. Co. is also engaged in the mining of coal for use in its fossil-fuel electric plants; mining research; land restoration, and environmental monitoring and control.
Obrascon Huarte Lain is an international concession and construction groups based in Spain. Co. maintains significant operations in 30 countries across all five continents. Co. is engaged in hospital and railway construction, transport infrastructure concessions, oil and gas, energy, solids handling and fire protection systems and international contracts. Co.'s operations are organized along four divisions: OHL Concesiones, OHL Construccion, OHL Industrial y OHL Desarrollos. Co. is also engaged in real state project developments of mixed use managed by the international hotel chains.
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