EUR 100.00 For Business Accounts Only

IBERIAN DAILY 06 APRIL (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

NEWS SUMMARY: ACS, AEDAS, FERROVIAL, GRIFOLS, SIEMENS GAMESA, TELEFÓNICA.


MARKETS YESTERDAY AND TODAY

Renewed optimism following the announcement of the new stimulus plan in the US
New gains in European stock markets before the Easter holidays. The ES50 climbed more than +2% in the week, hitting new annual highs on account of the S&P500 that exceeded the 4,000-point level for the first time thanks to the optimism following the announcement of the new fiscal stimulus plan in the US last Wednesday and the good macroeconomic data released last Thursday. In the Euro STOXX, Automobiles and Technology led gains last week while Basic Resources and Leisure were the only industries seeing drops. On the macroeconomic level, in the euro zone March’s final manufacturing PMI was raised slightly vs. the preliminary data last Thursday. In Spain, the BoS revised the growth forecasts to 6.0% in 2021 given the delay in the vaccination calendar and the aid of the European fund. In the US, weekly jobless claims climbed above expectations , March’s manufacturing ISM rose more than expected and the services ISM hit new highs at 63.7 points. Both data suggest GDP growth above 4.7% q/qa expected by the consensus in the 1Q’21. In this regard, March’s job data came in far above expectations (with job generation almost doubling forecasts), while wage gains moderated to 4.2% vs. 5.2% previously. In Brazil, February’s industrial output slowed down more than expected. In Mexico, March’s manufacturing PMI came in better than expected but remaining below 50. In China, March’s services Caixin PMI rose more than expected, coming in at 54.3 points.
What we expect for today
European stock markets would open with gains awaiting the OPEC+ comments, which are focusing on recovering production levels in Iran. Travel & Leisure could do relatively worse due to the poor virus spread numbers for the 4th wave in Europe and the doubt on withdrawal from lockdown in the UK, which is now questioning the reopening of borders on 17 May. Currently, S&P futures are down -0.22% (the S&P 500 ended +1.78% higher vs. its price at the closing bell in Europe). Volatility in the US rose (VIX 19.91). Asian markets are sliding (China’s CSI 300 -0.5% and Japan’s Nikkei -1.1%).
Today in the euro zone we will learn April’s Sentix index and February’s unemployment rate, in Mexico March’s consumer confidence, and in Brazil March’s services PIM and February’s industrial output. Debt auctions: Italy (€ 6 Bn in 12M t-bills), Germany (€ 6 Bn in 4M and 6M t-bills) and France (€ 6.2 Bn in 3M, 6M and 12M t-bills).


COMPANY NEWS

ACS, BUY
In the AGM the company will propose a final dividend’20 in scrip format of up to € 1.37/sh. (-12% vs. 2019; +83% above our estimate and +78% vs. consensus). 4.8% yield. DPS’20 € 1.82/sh. (-9% vs. 2019). 6.4% yield.
Positive news, as it means a significant increase over our estimate given that it raises the payout from 65% over the past few years to ~100%. We understand that the increased payout would be to some degree a consequence of the recent sale of the Industrial Services business to Vinci, which would leave the company in a net cash position at the end of the year (€~650 M at the end of 2021e).