EUR 100.00 For Business Accounts Only

IBERIAN DAILY 17 NOVEMBER + 3Q’25 RESULTS. PREVIEWS (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

NEWS SUMMARY: ACS, TELEFÓNICA.

At the end of today’s report, and during the entire results season, we will include a presentation with positive and negative results highlights and previews for the 3Q’25 results to be released over the coming days in Spain.

Fear of AI bubble brings volatility
Following the record highs reached last week thanks to the hope of an end to the shutdown in the US and the solid business results, stock markets reeled in part of the gains due to the concerns of a bubble in AI and the latest mixed data out of China. To this we must add the lower likelihood of rate cuts in the US in the December meeting (40%). Thus, in the STOXX 600, the best-performing sectors during the week were Pharma and Consumer Goods, whereas Household Goods, Financial Services and Real Estate ended with the biggest drops. On the macro side, in Spain October’s final and core inflation figures confirmed the preliminary data, in line with expectations (3.1% and 2.5%, respectively). In the euro zone, the second reading of the 3Q’25 GDP confirmed the +0.2% MoM growth and 0.1% growth in employment on the quarter. In Japan, the 3Q’25 GDP was dragged down by the external sector, but it contracted less than expected thanks to investments. Thailand recorded its first GDP contraction in four years in 3Q’25.
What we expect for today
European stock markets would open with slight losses that would turn into gains over the course of the session. Currently, S&P futures are up +0.41% (the S&P 500 ended -0.44% lower vs. the European closing bell). Asian markets are falling (China’s CSI 300 -1.0% and Japan’s Nikkei -0.25%).
Today in Brazil we will learn September’s economic activity index and in the US November’s Empire manufacturing index.


COMPANY NEWS

ACS. CMD’25: Data centres and Managed Lanes as growth engines. UNDERWEIGHT
From the CMD’25 we highlight the company’s target of investing around € 4.5 Bn of equity in developing greenfield assets over the next five years, mainly in data centres and Managed Lanes, which ACS expects to reach a valuation of €~18 Bn in 2030e. We raise our estimates by +3% in EBITDA’26-27e and raise our T.P. to € 76.00/sh. (+31% vs. previous) after rolling over our model and applying a higher valuation multiple in Turner (11x EV/EBITDA’26e vs. 10x previously). We see no significant risks, but following the stock’s strong recent performance (+87% in the past 12 months; +47% vs. IBEX 35 and +65% vs. sector) we maintain our UNDERWEIGHT recommendation, awaiting drivers like the awarding of Managed Lanes or an advance in the development of data centres (signing leases).