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IBERIAN DAILY 24 JULY + 2Q’25 RESULTS. HIGHLIGHTS AND REST OF PREVIEWS (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

NEWS SUMMARY: ACS, AEDAS HOMES, BANKINTER, CAF, COLONIAL, IBERDROLA, INDRA, REPSOL, ROVI, VIDRALA.

At the end of today’s report, and during the entire results season, we will include a presentation with positive and negative results highlights and previews for the 2Q’25 results to be released over the coming days in Spain.

Greater expectations in trade negotiations
European stock exchanges recovered the ground lost the previous session, rallying around +1.0% after the trade agreement with Japan and the signs of progress in other negotiations. In this regard, the US and EU would be close to a trade deal that would set reciprocal tariffs of 15% on most products (similar to the agreement with Japan), eliminating tariffs on aircraft, alcoholic drinks and medical equipment, and thus avoiding the worst scenario of 30% starting on 01 August. The 15% tariff would consolidate current levels (including the additional 10% since April over a previous average of 4.8%) and would mean a significant reduction in sectors like Autos, where current tariffs are 27.5%. That said, subsequently Trump chilled the optimism, stating that tariffs will be between 15% and 50% in countries that do not come to an agreement, reiterating that the agreement with Japan will be periodically reviewed to make sure it is being met. With all this in mind, in the STOXX 600, almost all sectors (16/20) ended with gains, led by Autos and Consumer Goods vs. the losses of Utilities and Technology. On the macro side, in the euro zone July’s consumer confidence recovered more than expected. In the US existing home sales dropped more than expected to Sep’24 levels. In US business results, Hilton and Moody’s beat expectations, while of the Magnificent 7, Alphabet (Google) beat expectations with improved demand in Cloud services, whereas Tesla released disappointing earnings, with car deliveries falling.
What we expect for today
European stock markets would open with gains of more than +1.2%, led by Autos with expectations that the agreement will be signed. Currently, S&P futures are up +0.07% (the S&P 500 ended +0.28% higher vs. the European closing bell). Asian markets are climbing (China’s CSI 300 +0.45% and Japan’s Nikkei +1.7%).
Today in the euro zone we will learn July’s ECB meeting and PMI data, in Spain the 2Q’25 unemployment rate and in the US weekly jobless claims, July’s PMI data and June’s new home sales. In US business results Nasdaq, Intel and Blackstone, among others, will release their earnings.



COMPANY NEWS

ACS, UNDERWEIGHT
Yesterday Hochtief (~80% ACS) released its 2Q’25 results, which beat expectations in sales (+20% vs. 2Q’24 vs. +14% consensus), and very much in line in Operating Net Profit (€ 188 M vs. € 181 M consensus; +18% vs. 2Q’24).
NFD came in at € 1.41 Bn (vs. € 1.78 Bn BS(e); falling € -577 M in 2Q’25), with net Operating CF of € 805 M (vs. € +878 M in 2Q’24), boosted by the favourable working capital (€ +533 M vs. € +165 M BS(e)). The backlog shrank -2% on the quarter to € 69.0 Bn (~21 months coverage).
As regards the outlook, Hochtief maintained its guidance’25 of € 680-730 M in operating Net Profit (€ 705 M midpoint; around +13% vs. 2024), in line with the consensus estimate of € 710 M.
With all this in mind, the 2Q’25 results were in line on the operating level and slightly better in cash, with the 2025 guidance maintained. Yesterday Hochtief slid -0.3% (-1.3% vs. ES50) and ACS ended +0.7% higher (+0.6% vs. IBEX). Note that ACS will release its full results on 30/07 (conference call at 14:00 CET).

AEDAS HOMES, UNDERWEIGHT
At yesterday’s closing bell the company announced € 185 M of total revenues (+15% vs. 1Q’24), of which € 171 M correspond to the Residential Development division (+12% vs. 1Q’24, driven mainly by a higher unit price in units delivered).
Presales over the period totaled 586 units for € 236 M. The value of the portfolio as of the end of June’25 was € 1.74 Bn (vs. € 1.66 Bn as of 31 March’25).
Given AEDAS’s special situation, with a TOB under way (and where we do not expect a price improvement), we do not expect an impact from this trading statement.

BANKINTER, UNDERWEIGHT
2Q’25 Results came in above expectations thanks to NII (+2.4% vs. estimates) and slightly lower in costs and provisions. The good dynamics in volumes remain unchanged, as expected: lending grew +6% vs. 2Q’25 (+5% in 1Q’25) and deposits +6% vs. 2Q’25 (+7% in 1Q’25). The customer spread came in at 273bps (vs. 274 in 1Q’25), with a 0.98% cost of deposit (vs. 1.21% in 1Q’25). ROTE stood at 19.5% in the past 12 months (19.9% in 1Q’25) and CET1 totalled 12.57% in 2Q’25 (vs. 12.35% in 1Q’25), explained by (i) organic generation (+59bps); (ii) APR (-34bps); (iii) others (-9bps).
Following the share price performance that has been very much in line with its sector in the past 3 months today’s market reaction should have a positive slant. Notwithstanding, we believe that the stock is trading at demanding levels (~1.7x P/TE’25 vs. 1.3x sector), and thus we maintain our UNDERWEIGHT recommendation.

COLONIAL, OVERWEIGHT
The company in which COL holds a 98% stake has released rental revenues of € 123 M in 1H’25 (+0.8%, in line with our estimate), with LfL rents +6%. The lower growth in total rents is due to two assets going under renovations, the rents of which are lost in the comparison with last year. The sharp LfL growth compares to +4% in 1Q’25, and thus it sped up in 2Q’25 on a standalone basis.
Adjusted for the dividend in April, NTA remained stable vs. Dec’24.
The results are solid, and perfectly in line with what we expected. COL will release its results this evening.

INDRA. Results slightly above expectations, we will raise our estimates and valuation. OVERWEIGHT.
Results came in slightly above expectations in sales and EBIT and far above in Net Profit (due to the increased valuation of the stake in TESS, € 100 M in financial results). The order backlog rose by +32.5% up to € 9.74 Bn. 1H’25 Sales climbed +6.3% (vs. +5.7% BS(e) and +6.0% consensus), growing in 2Q’25 vs. 1Q’25 and 1H’25 EBIT totalled € 209 M (+28.1% vs. +18.0% BS(e) and +22.2% consensus) with an 8.6% margin vs. 7.8% in 1H’24. Despite the share price outperformance in 2025 (+118% in absolute terms and +97% vs. IBEX), we believe that these results are not sufficiently robust and the trends so favourable to have a positive impact. We will raise our estimates and valuation to include the better business prospects (mainly in Defence), and thus we place our T.P. Under Revision although we reiterate our OVERWEIGHT recommendation.

REPSOL. 2Q’25 results beating expectations. Second round of buybacks (€ 350 M) announced. OVERWEIGHT
The 2Q’25 results beat our expectations and the consensus (cut around -10% since the Trading Statement was released). Adjusted 1Q’25 Net Profit would have come in at € 702 M (-18% vs. 2Q’24, vs. -43% consensus and BS(e)). By divisions: Upstream (49% EBIT’24) reached € 439 M (+2.8% vs. 2Q’24); Industrial (39% EBIT’24) € 99 M (-65% vs. 2Q’24), with an impact of € 176 M from the blackout; Commercial & Low Carbon (17% EBIT’24) € 198 M (+25% vs. 2Q’24). The company has announced a second round of buybacks (€ 350 M, ~2.5% of capital) until the € 700 M for the year (5% capital) has been completed. NFD fell slightly to € 5.73 Bn. The production guidance improved, with CFFO standing at € 6.0-6.5 Bn. We expect a positive reaction.

ROVI, OVERWEIGHT
2Q’25 Results in line on the operating level (EBITDA € 35 M vs. € 35 M BS(e) and € 33 M consensus; -20% vs. 2Q’24), where the sales drop in the CDMO stands out (-35% vs. 2Q’24 vs. -40% BS(e)) due to lower transfer technology revenues and lower production for Moderna. NFD remained practically flat at € 80 M (~0.4x NFD/EBITDA), slightly better than our estimate (€ 86 M BS(e)). As for prospects, the company kept its uidance’25 unchanged of a a ~-5% operating revenues (vs. -5% BS(e)) and -6% consensus).
We do not foresee a relevant impact despite the poor share price performance (-14% in 2025; -35% vs. IBEX).

VIDRALA, OVERWEIGHT
We see the results as positive, as despite the fact that they were lower than what we expected in revenues, they beat our estimates in margins and EBITDA (in both margin and absolute terms). 2Q’25 vs. 2Q’24: Sales reached € 378 M (-8% vs. -6% BS(e)), EBITDA € 111 M (-3% vs. -5% BS(e)). The exchange rate has had a negative effect on sales this half-year (-1%), as did the scope of consolidation (-2%) following the sale of the Italian business.
The 2Q’25 EBITDA margin on a standalone basis is 29.6% (vs. 28.2% BS(e), vs. 28.0% in 2Q’24). We understand the improved margin is due to lower energy costs, improved efficiency and a geographical mix effect stemming from the sale of the Italian unit (lower margins).
We welcome the improvement to margins.

2Q’25 Results highlights and rest of previews
Of the stocks releasing their earnings over the coming days, today on the positive side we highlight Cellnex (releasing on 31/07), where we expect solid results to be released (with cash generation growth speeding up), along with the potential messages on asset sales, which could act as a driver, given the stock’s lacklustre performance in 2025, rising +8.4% in absolute terms (-13% vs. IBEX) and despite having completed the share buyback programme (€ 800 M, 3.4% shares).