INFORME DIARIO 20 MARZO (ANÃLISIS BANCO SABADELL)
COMPAÑÃAS QUE APARECEN EN EL INFORME. ESPAÑA: AENA, APPLUS, CAF, CAIXABANK, CAMBIO DE CARTERAS, IAG, INDITEX, REPSOL, SECTOR BANCOS, SECTOR PROMOTOR. EUROPA: ADIDAS, CAMBIO DE CARTERAS, INTESA SANPAOLO, LINDE, LVMH, TOTAL.SÃntomas de estabilización
Cierto rebote en las bolsas Europeas, que encajaron mejor el anuncio de compra de activos del BCE con un mercado de deuda más estabilizado. Tanto Lagarde como Guindos recalcaron que el BCE estaba dispuesto a hacer más en caso necesario. En esta lÃnea Daly de la Fed comentó que la liquidez inyectada estaba comenzando a dar resultados. En el Euro STOXX subidas en bloque donde Inmobiliario lideró las alzas frente a Retail (único sector en rojo) y Autos que cerró plano. Por el lado macro, en EE.UU. el paro semanal repuntó levemente y el Ãndice de la Fed de Filadelfia se deterioró más de lo previsto contrayéndose hasta caer a terreno negativo. Los casos de coronavirus en EE.UU. repuntaron con fuerza (+40% en un dÃa) mientras que Italia ha superó a China en el recuento de muertes por el virus.
Qué esperamos para hoy
Esperamos una apertura alcista de los mercados en Europa. En estos momentos, los futuros del S&P cotizan con subidas del +0,78% (el S&P 500 cerró con caÃdas del -0,35% respecto al precio al que cotizaba al cierre de los mercados en Europa). La volatilidad en EE.UU. bajó (VIX 72%). Los mercados asiáticos que están abiertos cotizan con subidas (Hong Kong +3,96%).
Hoy en EE.UU. las ventas de viviendas de segunda mano de febrero.
ESPAÑA
AENA. La medida del RD limita las salidas de Caja en un escenario de cielos cerrados. Cambiamos a COMPRAR
Aunque creemos que el impacto del RD (que permite a AENA suspender los contratos con proveedores) no es significativo, limita las salidas de caja de AENA en un escenario de cielos cerrados. En este sentido, creemos que en un escenario desfavorable cada mes sin operaciones implicarÃa unas pérdidas de entre 100/150 M euros (10% FCF anual). AsÃ, pensamos que si la situación se normaliza en el verano, el impacto total por el Covid-19 podrÃa ser perfectamente asumible dado sus actuales niveles de liquidez y bajo endeudamiento (2,3x DN/EBITDA). Ante las perspectivas de que su principal accionista (El Estado Español a través de Enaire, 51% de AENA) pueda necesitar fondos adicionales a futuro confiamos en que el dividendo (yield’20e 7,2%) continuará siendo estable. Todo esto, unido a las fuertes caÃdas del valor (-40% desde máximos de ferbero, -2% vs Ibex), nos lleva a cambiar nuestra recomendación de VENDER a COMPRAR.
CAF. Reabrirá sus plantas en España el 20 de abril. COMPRAR.
Según prensa, CAF ha llegado a un acuerdo con el comité de empresa por el que finalmente reanudará la operación de sus plantas en España (Irún, Beasain y Zaragoza; de un total de 8 a nivel global) el 20 de abril y evitando el ERTE. Las horas perdidas durante los dÃas que las plantas han permanecido paradas se recuperan a lo largo del ejercicio (incluidos fines de semana si es necesario o incluso durante el 1T’21), estando asimismo prevista la contratación de personal eventual (hasta 100 empleados) durante entre 4 y 6 meses. Adicionalmente, el Consejo de Administración y el Comité de Dirección verá su sueldo reducido un -5%. Recordamos que el pasado lunes la CompañÃa anunciaba el cierre de estas plantas al no poder asegurar actualmente las distancias de seguridad requeridas (por los protocolos del Covid-19) de los empleados que allà trabajan. En este sentido, la noticia no explica por qué ahora sà se dan las condiciones para que las instalaciones sean aptas para operar en el escenario actual de restricciones debidas al Covid-19. La noticia es positiva ya que plan de la CompañÃa nos parece positivo en la medida que, de poder llevarse a cabo, el impacto en la producción esperada serÃa muy limitado (80% potencial). Situamos nuestro P.O. Bajo Revisión vs 18,40 euros/acc. antes.
SECTOR BANCOS ESPAÑA
Los bancos están pendientes del Consejo de Ministros que se celebrará el próximo 25 de marzo en el que se matizarÃa en que porcentaje del nuevo crédito a conceder para rescatar a las empresas lastradas por el Coronavirus contará con un aval estatal. No obstante la decisión no podrá ser tomada en cuenta por el Ejecutivo en solitario, dado que deberá contar con el visto bueno del BCE y de la Comisión Europea en el marco de coordinación de paÃses de la zona euro afectados por el Covid-19. El plan por tanto del Gobierno para facilitar 100.000 M euros en avales con los que afrontar la crisis del coronavirus está en plena negociación con la banca quien estarÃa solicitando que dicho porcentaje de avales fuera al menos el 80% del nuevo crédito concedido. Noticia positiva de aprobarse dado que se partÃa inicialmente de porcentajes inferiores (ie entre un 65%-70%). Ahora bien, de concederse como aval el 80% del nuevo crédito a conceder, implicarÃa que el 20% del mismo podrÃa incurrir en mora. De ser asà (ese 20% incurre en mora) los NPLs del segmento empresa podrÃan ascender de referencias actuales del 6,5% al 10%, referencia inferior del 15% alcanzada en la crisis’08-09. Esperamos por tanto que entre en vigor el esquema de garantÃas con el porcentaje al 80%, que serÃa una muy buena notica para el sector, eliminando parte de la presión que han recibido en cotización.
EUROPA
TOTAL, COMPRAR
Según Bloomberg, TOT estarÃa planeando recortar 800 M dólares de Opex en 2020 (c. 3% de la base de costes), asà como reducir inversiones por 3.300 M dólares (c. 18% del total esperado BS(e)). Además, la información indica que se paralizarÃa el actual plan de recompra de acciones para 2020 por importe de 1.500 M dólares (2,5% capitalización). Noticia positiva de confirmarse, aunque esperada en el actual entorno de incertidumbre respecto a la evolución de los precios del crudo. Calculamos que TOT tiene un cash break-even de c. 48$/b (vs 25 dólares/b actualmente del Brent), que obligarÃa a futuros recortes en la rentabilidad al accionista de no mejorar la situación actual. En un escenario de precio medio anual de Brent de 50$/b calculamos no tendrÃa que recortar el dividendo.
ACM Managed Dollar Income Fund is a non-diversified, closed-end management investment company. This closed-end investment fund is designed for investors who seek high current income and capital appreciation. In order to achieve this objective, Co. invests primarily in high-yielding, U.S. and non-U.S. fixed income securities, denominated in U.S. dollars, that it expects to benefit from improving economic and credit fundamentals. Co. may utilize leverage through the investment techniques of reverse repurchase agreements and dollar rolls. As of Sept 30 2007, Co. had total assets of $192,614,325 and investment portfolio totalled $178,906,534.
Aena SME SA, formerly Aena SA, is a Spain-based company primarily engaged in the airports operation. Its activities are divided into four segments: Airports, which comprises Aeronautical subdivision, responsible for the management of airports, jetways, security, handling, cargo and fuel services, among others, as well as Commercial subdivision, including duty-free and specialty stores, restaurant services, car rental, as well as banking services and advertising; Services outside the terminal, which manages real estate assets, such as parking lots, warehouses and lands; International, which comprises operations of Company's subsidiary, Aena Desarrollo Internacional SA, that invests in other airport owners principally in Mexico, Colombia and the United Kingdom; and Others, encompassing corporate activities. It manages tourism, hub and regional airports, as well as heliports and general aviation areas. Furthermore, its destination range comprises Europe, the Americas, Asia and Africa.
Applus Services SA is a Spain-based company that provides inspection, testing and quality assurance services. The Company's activities are divided into five segments: Applus+ RTD, which provides non-destructive testing services mainly to the oil industry; Applus+ Velosi-Norcontrol, which offers solutions for technical assistance, supervision, inspection, quality control testing, certification and consulting services mainly to industrial, electrical, oil and telecommunications facilities; Applus+ Laboratories, which focuses on laboratory testing, system certification and product development services within aerospace, industrial and consumer goods sectors, among others; Applus+ Automotive, which is responsible for the vehicle roadworthiness testing services, and Applus+ IDIADA, which delivers design, engineering, testing and certification services mainly to car manufacturers. The Company operates in Europe, Africa, Asia and the Americas.
Caixabank is an investment company based in Spain. Co. is involved in investment portfolio management activities across two areas: Services and Financial Business and Insurance. In the services area, Co. provides investment solutions for companies involved in the infrastructure, energy, services and entertainment sectors. In the financial business and insurance area, Co. is engaged in the investments for international banks, insurance and specialist financial services. Co. focuses most of its banking investments in India, China, the U.S., and Central and Eastern Europe with a particular interest in retail banking. Co. is also involved in the disinvestments activities.
International Airlines Group is an international scheduled airline and global premium airlines. Co.'s principal place of business is London with significant presence at Heathrow, Gatwick and London City airports.
Intesa Sanpaolo is a commercial bank. Co. is engaged in lending and deposit collection operations in Italy and associated financial services, serving Households, Personal, Small Business, Private and Small and Medium Enterprise customers. Co. provides medium-term credit, leasing, factoring and agribusiness (Mediocredito Italiano), consumer credit (Intesa Sanpaolo Personal Finance), management of electronic payments (Setefi), and trust services (Sirefid). Co. has approximately 4,300 branches, including Retail and Business branches, distributed broadly throughout Italy. At Dec 31 2014, Co. had total assets of Euro646.43 billion.
Linde is a gases and engineering company based in Germany. Co. operates through two divisions. The Gases division provides a range of compressed and liquefied gases as well as chemicals. Co.'s gases are used in the energy sector, in steel production, chemical processing, environmental protection, and welding, as well as in food processing, glass production and electronics. The Engineering division is engaged in industrial plants construction globally, focusing on market segments such as plants for the production of hydrogen and synthesis gas, air separation and olefins as well as plants for natural gas treatment.
LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton is a manufacturer and retailer of luxury goods. Co. offers champagne and wines, cognac and spirits, fashion and leather goods, perfumes and cosmetics, watches and jewelery; and is engaged in selective retailing. Its operations are organized along five business segments: Wine and Spirits, Fashion and Leather Goods, Perfumes and Cosmetics, Watches and Jewelery, and Selective Retailing. Co. is also engaged in other activities (Media with Les Echos group, La Samaritaine and Luxury yacht with Royal Van Lent). Some of Co.'s brands are Moet & Chandon, Dom Perignon, Louis Vuitton, Fendi, Donna Karan, Parfums Christian Dior, Guerlain, Parfums Givenchy, and TAG Heuer.
Repsol is an oil and gas company. Co. is engaged in all the activities relating to the oil and gas industry, including exploration, development and production of crude oil and natural gas, transportation of oil products, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and natural gas, refining, the production of a wide range of oil products and the retailing of oil products, oil derivatives, petrochemicals, LPG and natural gas, as well as the generation, transportation, distribution and supply of electricity. Co. operates in more than 40 countries. Co.'s operations are divided into four segments: Upstream, Downstream, LNG and Gas Natural Fenosa.
Total is an international integrated oil and gas company also active in solar and biomass energy sources. Co. engages all aspects of the petroleum industry, including Upstream operations (oil and gas exploration, development and production, and LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas)) and Downstream operations (refining, petrochemicals, specialty chemicals, marketing and marketing and trading and shipping of crude oil and petroleum products). In addition, Co. is engaged in the coal mining and power generation sectors. Co.'s worldwide operations are conducted through three business segments: Upstream, Refining & Chemicals, and Marketing & Services.
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