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INFORME DIARIO 28 ABRIL (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

COMPAÑÍAS QUE APARECEN EN EL INFORME. ESPAÑA: BBVA, IBERPAPEL, MERLIN, SANTANDER, SECTOR SEGUROS. EUROPA: ADIDAS, ALLIANZ, LINDE

Después de las caídas, tocan subidas
Los mercados comienzan la semana en verde a la espera de resultados empresariales y con la mirada puesta en las reuniones de la Fed (miércoles) y BCE (jueves). En el Euro STOXX todos los sectores cerraron con ganancias, donde Autos, Bancos y Viajes&Ocio lideraron las subidas, mientras que Energía y Media fueron los que peor comportamiento relativo tuvieron Por el lado macro, el BCE ha anunciado que ha comprado activos por importe total de 97.000 millones de euros durante las primeras cuatro semanas en las que ha estado en vigor su programa de compras contra la pandemia. En EE.UU. la Fed anunció la ampliación de su programa de compra de deuda municipal (MLF) hasta los 500.000 M dólares emitidas por estados con mínimo 500.000 habitantes y ciudades con 250.000 habitantes y hasta con 3 años de vencimiento. En Japón, la tasa de paro de marzo repuntó en línea con lo esperado hasta el 2,5% desde el 2,4% de febrero. En Rdos. Empresariales en EE.UU. CNX Resources mucho mejor, Lexicon Pharmaceuticals mejor y peor lo hicieron Northwest Bancshares, Middlefield Banc y Koppers.
Qué esperamos para hoy
Las bolsas abrirían con tímidas subidas que deberían ir a menos, lastradas por la caída del petróleo nuevamente pero soportadas por la expectativas de mayores estímulos que podría anunciar el BCE. En estos momentos, los futuros del S&P cotizan con caídas del -0,58% (el S&P 500 cerró con subidas del +0,56% respecto al precio al que cotizaba al cierre de los mercados en Europa). La volatilidad en EE.UU. bajó (VIX 33,29%). Los mercados asiáticos cotizan mixtos (Japón -0,3% y Hong Kong +0,57%).
Hoy en España la tasa de desempleo del 1T’20. En Francia la confianza del consumidor de abril. En EE.UU la confianza del consumidor y el índice manufacturero de la Fed de Richmond de abril . En subastas: Holanda (1.500 M euros en bonos vto. 2047 y 4.000 M euros en letras a 3, 6 y 12 meses) e Italia (7.000 M euros en letras a 6 meses). En Rdos empresariales en EE.UU. Caterpillar, Merck & Co, Harley-Davidson y Pfizer entre otros.

ESPAÑA
IBERPAPEL. Rdos. 1T’20 ligeramente peores de lo esperado. Cambiamos a COMPRAR.
Publico ayer a la apertura unos Rdos 1T'20 malos como esperado con una ligera desviación negativa en ventas ((-2% vs BS(e)) y EBITDA (-3% vs BS(e)) pero alineados en BDI. Con la revisión de estimaciones que prevemos realizar para nuestro escenario de recuperación en “V” (-45% en BPA’20e y –15% en media 2021-22) nuestro P.O. caería a niveles de 26 euros/acc. (-17% de revisión), mientras que en un escenario más negativo de recuperación en “U” (-54% en BDI’20e y –22% en media 2021-22) el P.O. se quedaría en niveles de ~24 euros/acc. (-25% revisión). Por lo tanto, en la medida que en ambos escenarios hay potencial cambiamos nuestra recomendación a COMPRAR. El valor acumula una caída del -46% desde máximos de agosto’18 (-20% vs IBEX).

SANTANDER. Rdos. mejor de lo esperado. Alcanza su BDI Recurrente de c.1.900 M euros. Covid-19: -1.600 M euros. COMPRAR
Rdos. 1T’20 mejor de lo esperado en las principales líneas de actividad. Casi todas las áreas geográficas han presentado un mejor comportamiento vs consenso (a excepción de Reino Unido, y en menor medida Polonia). Sorprende especialmente la fortaleza en EE.UU., México y Brasil. Muy buen comportamiento del CoR orgánico c. 100 p.b. que se mantiene en referencias 4T'19. Así consigue su objetivo de BDI recurrente de 1.900 M euros. Provisiones por Covid- 19 de unos 1.600 M euros (+20% vs BS(e) ie c. 1.250 M euros en 1T'20). Habrá que esperar a mensajes por si es extrapolable. De ser así supondría un CoR'20e>150 p.b. vs 143 p.b. BS(e). CET1 FL Phase In de 11,58% algo por debajo del c, 11,65% BS(e) por mayor impacto de operaciones corporativas. Situamos nuestro P.O. bajo revisión. Revisaremos BDI/BPA’20-21e un –40% reduciendo nuestro P.O. de forma proporcional hasta referencias de 3,0 euros/acc, que nos dejaría todavía un potencial de c.+50%.
Underlyings
Adidas AG

ACM Managed Dollar Income Fund is a non-diversified, closed-end management investment company. This closed-end investment fund is designed for investors who seek high current income and capital appreciation. In order to achieve this objective, Co. invests primarily in high-yielding, U.S. and non-U.S. fixed income securities, denominated in U.S. dollars, that it expects to benefit from improving economic and credit fundamentals. Co. may utilize leverage through the investment techniques of reverse repurchase agreements and dollar rolls. As of Sept 30 2007, Co. had total assets of $192,614,325 and investment portfolio totalled $178,906,534.

Aena SME SA

Aena SME SA, formerly Aena SA, is a Spain-based company primarily engaged in the airports operation. Its activities are divided into four segments: Airports, which comprises Aeronautical subdivision, responsible for the management of airports, jetways, security, handling, cargo and fuel services, among others, as well as Commercial subdivision, including duty-free and specialty stores, restaurant services, car rental, as well as banking services and advertising; Services outside the terminal, which manages real estate assets, such as parking lots, warehouses and lands; International, which comprises operations of Company's subsidiary, Aena Desarrollo Internacional SA, that invests in other airport owners principally in Mexico, Colombia and the United Kingdom; and Others, encompassing corporate activities. It manages tourism, hub and regional airports, as well as heliports and general aviation areas. Furthermore, its destination range comprises Europe, the Americas, Asia and Africa.

Airbus Group SE

Allianz SE

Allianz is engaged in the provision of a range of insurance and asset management products and services. Co. has three business segments: Property-Casualty, which provides insurance products to both private and corporate customers, including motor liability and own damage, accident, general liability, fire and property, legal expense, credit and travel insurance; Life/Health, which provides life and health insurance products including annuities, endowment and term insurance, unit-linked and investment-oriented products and private health and supplemental health and long-term care insurance; and Asset Management, which provides institutional and retail asset management products and services.

Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria S.A.

Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria is an international financial group, engaged primarily on providing banking services and consumer finance to private individuals and businesses in Spain and Portugal; providing real estate activity in Spain; providing services to international companies and investment banking, capital markets and treasury management services to clients; and providing the banking, insurance and pension businesses in Mexico and the U.S., as well as in South America.

Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria S.A. Sponsored ADR

Banco Santander S.A.

Banco Santander is a holding company, providing a range of financial products. Co.'s products and services include: retail banking business that covers all customer banking businesses; wholesale banking business; as well as asset management and insurance business. Co.'s principal operations are in Spain, the U.K., Portugal, Germany, Italy and Latin America. As of Dec 31 2014, Co.'s total assets amounted to Euro1,266,296,000,000 and total customer deposits amounted to Euro647,627,000,000.

Bankia S.A.

Bankia is a financial institution based in Spain. Co. is primarily engaged in operations in the banking sector. Co.'s business operations are structured into seven areas: Retail Banking, Business Banking, Private Banking, Asset Management and Bancassurance, Capital Markets and Holdings. Co. offers financial products and services to various customer segments, such as individuals, small and medium enterprises, large corporations, as well as public and private institutions. As of Dec 31 2014, Co. had total assets and total customer deposits of Euro233,648,603,000 and Euro106,806,698,000 respectively.

CIE Automotive S.A.

CIE Automotive is the parent company of an industrial group formed by several companies that are engaged in the design, manufacture and sale of automobile component and sub-units on the world market. In addition, Co. is also engaged in the bio-fuels business which is in the initial stages of development and is made up of various companies devoted to the production and distribution of bio-fuels.

ENCE Energia y Celulosa SA

Ence Energia Y Celulosa is engaged in the manufacture and commercialization of wood pulp and derivatives. Co. divides its activities into the following two business lines: Forest Division: Co. manages timberlands in South America and the Iberian Peninsula. Co. is involved in trading of wood, and supplies solid wood products including: plywood, sawn timber, parquet flooring and glued-edge paneling. Co. is involved in forest and environmental consulting. Pulp Division and Energy Production: Co. is engaged in the production of Eucalyptus globulus-based TCF and ECF paper pulp. Co. is also involved in the generation of electricity through biomass power producing plants.

Iberpapel Gestion S.A.

Iberpapel Gestion is engaged in the manufacture, wholesale distribution, sale and export of pulp and printing and writing paper. In addition, Co. maintains forestry activities, including the cultivation of timberlands.

LINDE AG

Linde is a gases and engineering company based in Germany. Co. operates through two divisions. The Gases division provides a range of compressed and liquefied gases as well as chemicals. Co.'s gases are used in the energy sector, in steel production, chemical processing, environmental protection, and welding, as well as in food processing, glass production and electronics. The Engineering division is engaged in industrial plants construction globally, focusing on market segments such as plants for the production of hydrogen and synthesis gas, air separation and olefins as well as plants for natural gas treatment.

MERLIN Properties SOCIMI S.A.

Merlin Properties SOCIMI SA is a Spain-based company engaged in the operation of a real estate investment trust (REIT). The Company focuses on the acquisition, management and rental of commercial properties located in the Iberian Peninsula, primarily in Spain. The Company's activities are divided into the following segments: Office buildings, operating a portfolio of office space; High-street retail, engaged in leasing retail stores; Shopping centers, engaged in managing department stores; Logistics, operating logistics warehouses and distribution centers, and Others. The Company's other activities include property management services rendered to third parties.

Red Electrica Corp. SA

Red Electrica is engaged in the transmission of electrical energy, the operation of the system and the management of the transmission network in the Spanish electricity system. In addition, through its subsidiaries, Co. is engaged in the acquisition, holding and management of foreign securities, co-ordination of international exchanges, provision of telecommunications services for third parties, provision of consultancy, engineering and construction services outside the Spanish electricity system, securing of funds, carrying out of financial transactions and provision of financial services.

Safran S.A.

Safran designs, develops and manufactures high technology electronics through three businesses: Aerospace, Defense and Security. Aerospace includes Aerospace Propulsion (propulsion systems for commercial aircraft, military transport, training and combat aircraft, rocket engines, civil and military helicopters) and Aircraft Equipment (mechanical, hydromechanical and electromechanical equipment); Defense (optronic, avionic and electronic systems); and Security (biometric technologies for fingerprint, iris and face recognition, identity management products, access management and transaction security, including tomographic systems for detection of dangerous or illicit substances in baggage).

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