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INFORME DIARIO 03 FEBRERO + RDOS. ESPAÑA Y EUROPA 4T’25. PREVIEWS (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

COMPAÑÍAS QUE APARECEN EN EL INFORME: ESPAÑA: AEDAS HOMES, INDRA, MELIÁ, TELEFÓNICA, UNICAJA. EUROPA: INTESA SANPAOLO, UNICREDIT.

Incluido en el informe diario de hoy, y durante toda la campaña de resultados, incorporamos al final una presentación con los resultados destacados en positivo y negativo y previews de Rdos. 4T’25 que se publicarán en España y Europa en los próximos días.

El Ibex alcanza los 18.000 puntos
Jornada de menos a más en las bolsas europeas, con el Ibex liderando de nuevo los avances subiendo más de un +1,0% y donde la volatilidad en los metales continuó tras la elección de K. Warsh para presidir la Fed. En el STOXX 600 todos los sectores menos Inmobiliario y Energía cerraron con ganancias, lideradas por Viajes&Ocio y Alimentación. Por el lado macro, en la Eurozona el PMI final manufacturero de enero se revisó una décima alza hasta el 49,5. En Alemania las ventas al por menor de diciembre repuntaron por encima de lo esperado. En EE.UU. el ISM manufacturero de enero repuntó por encima de lo previsto hasta máximos de agosto’22, impulsado principalmente por nuevos pedidos, empleo y producción. El PMI manufacturero final también repuntó por encima de lo esperado. Desde la Fed, Bostic afirmó no proyectar ningún recorte de tipos para 2026 dado el fuerte impulso de la economía. En materia arancelaria, D. Trump redujo los aranceles a la India hasta el 18% (desde el 50%) a cambio del compromiso de dejar de comprar petróleo ruso y comprar más a EE.UU. También afirmó que el Congreso está cerca de lograr un acuerdo para poner fin al shutdown. En Rdos Empresariales 4T’25 en EE.UU. Walt Disney y Palantir salieron mejor, Tyson Foods en línea.
Qué esperamos para hoy
Las bolsas abrirían con ganancias cercanas al 0,5% tras la buena sesión en Asia. En estos momentos, los futuros del S&P 500 cotizan con subidas del 0,3% (el S&P 500 terminó sin cambios con respecto al nivel al que estaba al cierre de las bolsas europeas) Los mercados asiáticos cotizan con subidas (CSI 300 chino +1,14%, Nikkei de Japón +3,9% y el Kospi surcoreano +6,8%).
Hoy en España el número de parados. En EE.UU. las vacantes de empleo JOLTs, En Brasil la producción industrial de diciembre. En Rdos Empresariales 4T’25 en EE.UU. Paypal, PepsiCo y Pfizer entre otros.


ESPAÑA

UNICAJA. Rdos. 4T’25 y guidance 2026. INFRAPONDERAR
Rdos 4T’25 por encima en ingresos, ligeramente peores en costes y en provisiones legales (+60% vs esperado) lo que deja el BDI un -11% vs esperado. El ROTE se mantiene en el 9,8% del 3T’25 y el CET1 se sitúa en 16% vs 16,1% a 3T’25. Sube el payout en efectivo desde 60% a 70% ya en 2025 pero rebaja el de recompras desde 25% al 15% desde 2026. Ofrece un guidance con pocas sorpresas: M. intereses 2026 mayor al de 2025 (vs +0% BS(e) y +1% consenso), crecimiento en comisiones a low single sigit (vs +2% BS(e) y +3% consenso), crecimiento en costes a mid single digit (vs +4% BS(e) y +5% consenso), COR
Underlyings
AEDAS Homes SA

Aedas Homes is engaged in the housing development business in Spain. The company has a portfolio of approximately 1.5 million square meters of land that it develops for residential purpose. Co. develops multifamily homes for the housing market in Madrid, Catalonia, Levante and Majorca, Costa del Sol and Seville.

Indra Sistemas S.A. Class A

Indra Sistemas is engaged in the design, development, manufacture, assembly, repair, and installation of computer software and applications. Through its subsidiaries, Co. is engaged in consulting, graphic design and multimedia, web design and marketing, internet development and electronic trade, systems integration and hosting geared business to business and business to consumer, as well as in internet financing and electronic marketing. Co. serves defense and security, transport and traffic, energy and industry, telecom and media, finance and insurance, and public administration and healthcare markets. Co. operates primarily in Europe, the United States, Canada, and Latin America.

Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A.

Intesa Sanpaolo is a commercial bank. Co. is engaged in lending and deposit collection operations in Italy and associated financial services, serving Households, Personal, Small Business, Private and Small and Medium Enterprise customers. Co. provides medium-term credit, leasing, factoring and agribusiness (Mediocredito Italiano), consumer credit (Intesa Sanpaolo Personal Finance), management of electronic payments (Setefi), and trust services (Sirefid). Co. has approximately 4,300 branches, including Retail and Business branches, distributed broadly throughout Italy. At Dec 31 2014, Co. had total assets of Euro646.43 billion.

Melia Hotels International S.A.

Melia Hotels International is the parent company of a group engaged in the acquisition, management and operation of hotels. Co. operates its hotel network in Germany, Argentina, Brazil, Bulgaria, Cabo Verde, Chile, China, Costa Rica, Croatia, Cuba, Egypt, Spain, United States, France, Greece, Netherlands, Indonesia, Italy, Luxembourg, Malaysia, Mexico, Panama, Peru, Portugal, Puerto Rico, United Kingdom, Dominican Republic, Singapore, Switzerland, Tunisia, Uruguay, Venezuela and Vietnam under the followings brandnames: Paradisus Resorts®, Melia Hotels & Resorts®, TRYP Hoteles® and Sol Hotels & Resorts®.

Telefonica SA

Telefonica is engaged in the provision of public or private telecommunications services, including ancillary or complementary telecommunications services or related services. Co.'s fixed business includes: traditional fixed telecommunication services, Internet and broadband multimedia services, data and business-aplications services, and wholesale services for telecommunication operators. Co. also provides a range of mobile and related services and products to consumer and business customers, including mobile voice services, value added services, mobile data and Internet services, wholesale services, corporate services, roaming, fixed wireless, and, trunking and paging.

Unicaja Banco S.A.

Unicaja Banco SA is a Spain-based financial institution (the Bank) engaged in the banking sector. The Bank offers services to individual and business customers. Its products and services range includes current and savings accounts, debit and credit cards, consumer and commercial loans, real estate credit, securities brokerage, funds management, leasing, factoring, pension plans, life and non-life insurance, international trade financing, money transfer, as well as treasury, among others. The Bank operates a number of branches in Spain and Morocco. The Bank is controlled by Fundacion Bancaria Unicaja.

UniCredit S.p.A.

Unicredit is a pan-European commercial banking group based in Italy. Co. is engaged in the provision of in-branch and online corporate and investment banking services, providing customers with access to banks in 14 core markets as well as to an another 18 countries worldwide. Co.'s operations are organized along six business lines: Commercial Banking Italy; CEE Division; CIB; Commercial Banking Germany; Commercial Banking Austria; and Asset Gathering. Co.'s European banking network includes Italy, Germany, Austria, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Romania, Russia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Serbia and Turkey.

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