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IBERIAN DAILY 26 FEBRUARY + 4Q’24 RESULTS. HIGHLIGHTS AND REST OF PREVIEWS (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

NEWS SUMMARY: AENA, CELLNEX, EBRO FOODS, GLOBAL DOMINION, REDEIA.

At the end of today’s report, and during the entire results season, we will include a presentation with positive and negative results highlights and previews for the 4Q’24 results to be released over the coming days in Spain.

IBEX continues bullish streak
It was another session that ended worse than it began for European stock markets, dragged down by the poor opening in the US in view of the doubts being generated by the deteriorating macro data and the impact from the trade war. The IBEX, aided by the banks, rose above 13,000 points and once again led a mixed session in Europe. In the STOXX 600, Banks and Pharma posted the biggest gains, with Basic Materials and Technology falling the most for the second straight day. On the macro side, in the euro zone new car registrations fell sharply in January. In Germany, the final 4Q’24 GDP confirmed the preliminary -0.2% QoQ. In the US, February’s consumer confidence fell more than expected to June’24 lows. December’s housing prices rose more than expected. Additionally, the Congress approved the budget resolution with higher fiscal deficit for the coming years (4.8 Trillion in tax cuts in 10 years vs. 2.0 Trillion spending cuts), raising the debt ceiling and defence spending and reinforcing border control. On another note, the US and Ukraine have reached an agreement that includes the US exploitation of Ukraine’s minerals. In US business results, American Tower and Pinnacle beat expectations, Home Depot was in line.
What we expect for today
European stock markets would open with gains of around +0.5%, with solid performance from tech and cyclical stocks. Currently, S&P futures are up +0.37% (the S&P 500 ended +0.17% higher vs. the European closing bell). Asian markets are mixed (China’s CSI 300 +0.50% and Japan’s Nikkei -0.28%), while the Hang Seng is rising more than +3.0%, driven by technology and banks.
Today in the US we will learn January’s new home sales. In US business results, NVIDIA, Agilent, Ebay and Salesforce, among others, will release their earnings.


COMPANY NEWS

AENA, UNDERWEIGHT
4Q’24 revenues came in above our expectations and slightly below the consensus. EBITDA totalled € 847 M, above expectations (-6.8% vs. -8.3% BS(e) and -7.7% consensus) due to the impact from an impairment recovery in the 4Q’23 (€ 155 M). The company announced a € 9.76/sh. DPS (around +27% vs. 2023; 4.5% yield). Lastly, AENA will propose at the AGM a share split in the proportion of 10 new shares x 1 existing share. As for outlook, the company foresees +3.4% passenger traffic growth vs. 2024 (vs. +2.1% BS(e) and +3.2% consensus).
Good 4Q’24 results although we do not foresee a relevant market impact.

CELLNEX. Solid results slightly beating expectations. OVERWEIGHT.
The results were solid and slightly above expectations in EBITDA, thanks mainly to one offs (Spain and Italy, €~24 M) and better in cash due to lower maintenance CAPEX and positive working capital beating expectations. Adjusted EBITDA reached € 3.25 Bn (+8% vs. +6.7% BS(e) and consensus, reaching the high end of the guidance range of € 3.15-3.25 Bn), and RLFCF’24 came to € 1.80 Bn (+16.2%, above expectations). The company revised its 2025 and 2026 guidance to include asset sales and share buybacks, but they are generally in line with our estimates. In short, the results are strong and stress the robustness and visibility in the business.

EBRO FOODS, OVERWEIGHT
The 4Q’24 results beat expectations in EBITDA (+2.1% vs. -0.8% BS(e) and -3.0% consensus), with slightly weaker sales than we expected (+2.1% vs. +3.0% BS(e) and +1.5% consensus) and improving on the forecast EBITDA margin (13.2% vs. 12.8% BS(e) and 12.7% consensus). On the positive side we highlight the rice division, where 4Q’24 EBITDA rose around +8% (vs. -2.2% BS(e) and +1.7% consensus). The NFD/EBITDA’24 ratio came in at 1.4x, or € 593 M (€ +23 M vs. Dec’23 and vs. € -50 M BS(e)).
Solid 4Q’24 results, despite the inflationary raw material and logistics situation, along with the delay in executing investments. This, along with the positive messages from the start of the year, leaving the door open to a possible extraordinary dividend for 2025, could underpin the share price following the underperformance over the past year (-19% vs. IBEX).

GLOBAL DOMINION, OVERWEIGHT
The 4Q’24 results were in line in EBITDA (€ 44 M vs. € 43 M BS(e) and consensus), marked by a drop in organic growth’24 to +2% (vs. +4.9% in 3Q’24 and guidance above +5%). NFD fell by € -15 M in 2H’24 to € 183 M, above our estimate of € 156 M (~1.2x NFD/EBITDA vs. 1.4x in 1H’24). The company has proposed a dividend of € 15 M (~48% payout vs. ~33% historically; +0% vs. 2023; 3.3% yield). DOM maintains its guidance of above a +5% CAGR’24-26e in organic sales growth (vs. +5.8% BS(e)) and more than +7% in EBITDA (vs. +6.9% BS(e)).
We do not rule out a negative slant to the reception of these results, despite the poor performance YtD (+0% in 2025, -13% vs. IBEX).

REDEIA. FY2024 Results in line with expectations adjusted for Hispasat’s deconsolidation. OVERWEIGHT
FY2024 EBITDA (excluding Hispasat) totalled € 1.21 Bn (-12.4% vs. 2023, in line BS (e) and consensus) and Net Profit (excluding Hispasat) € 368.4 M (-47% vs. 2023, in line BS (e) and consensus), hit by the impact from the end of the regulatory useful lifespan of assets pre-98, including the € -137 M capital losses from the sale of Hispasat. NFD rose to € 5.37 Bn (vs. € 4.98 Bn in 2023), also adjusted for Hispasat’s deconsolidation. As expected, the DPS’24 came in at € 0.80/sh. (-20% vs. 2023; 4.7% yield), with the company proposing a € 0.60/sh. final dividend, 3.5% yield, -18% vs. 2023). We do not foresee any impact from these results. Conference Call (12:30 CET).