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INFORME DIARIO 09 JULIO (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

COMPAÑÍAS QUE APARECEN EN EL INFORME: ESPAÑA: CELLNEX, LIBERBANK, MELIÁ, OHL, SECTOR TURISMO. EUROPA: AIRBUS, BMW, DAIMLER, DEUTSCHE POST, VOLKSWAGEN

Aversión al riesgo
Jornada de aversión al riesgo con fuertes caídas a ambos lados del Atlántico donde el miedo a los efectos que la variante Delta puede producir (Japón extiende el estado de emergencia previo a los JJ.OO. y suspende el público en los eventos y miembros de la Fed advierten que la variante Delta puede truncar la recuperación), las noticias sobre tecnológicas chinas e incluso una retirada prematura de estímulos de la Fed, provocó una de las mayores caídas del año, en torno al -2% en la mayoría de los índices europeos. Así, en el Euro STOXX todos los sectores cerraron con pérdidas, con Inmobiliario y Farma mostrando el mejor comportamiento relativo frente a las mayores caídas de Retail y Viajes&Ocio. Desde el plano macro, el desempleo semanal en EE.UU. aumentó más de lo esperado. En la Eurozona, el BCE confirmó su cambio a un objetivo de inflación simétrico en torno al 2,0% lo que permitiría una inflación por encima del objetivo sin tener que subir tipos de interés. En cuanto a incorporar el coste de la vivienda en los precios advierte que es un proyecto a largo plazo. En Brasil la inflación interanual de junio repuntó menos de lo previsto y en México repitió los niveles de mayo como se preveía. En China la inflación de junio se modera inesperadamente mientras que los precios de producción lo hacen en línea con lo esperado pero confirman que el máximo fue alcanzado en mayo.
Qué esperamos para hoy
Las bolsas europeas rebotarían tras las caídas de ayer con subidas frágiles y debatiéndose el ES50 los niveles psicológicos de 4.000 puntos. En estos momentos, los futuros del S&P cotizan con caídas del -0,1% (el S&P 500 terminó ayer prácticamente sin cambios con respecto al nivel al que estaba al cierre de las bolsas europeas aunque rebotando desde mínimos del día). La volatilidad en EE.UU. subió (VIX 19). Los mercados asiáticos cotizan con caídas (CSI 300 chino -0,5%, Nikkei de Japón -0,6%).
Hoy sin datos macro relevantes a destacar. En subastas: Italia (6.000 M euros en letras a 12 meses).


EUROPA

AIRBUS, COMPRAR
Comunicó ayer al cierre la entrega de 77 aviones durante el mes de junio (vs 50 en mayo y vs 36 en junio’20; +114%) que sitúa las entregas en el año en 297 (vs 196 hasta junio en 2020; +52%). Por otra parte, en junio se registraron 73 pedidos (vs 7 en mayo y ninguno en junio’20) y 2 cancelaciones (vs 3 en mayo). Considerando las cancelaciones, los pedidos netos hasta junio’21 se sitúan en 38 (vs -33 en mayo). Noticia positiva, ya la cifra de entregas finalmente reportada supera el suelo de entregas adelantado por Bloomberg hace unos días (se esperaban >70 aviones).Estos datos refuerzan nuestra confianza en que el suelo objetivo de AIR de alcanzar >566 entregas en 2021 (vs 613 BS(e)) es superable (harían falta 100% en 1S’21) y le permite elevar objetivos en 2021/23 de c.+5% hasta un EBIT’23e >7.400 M euros (+1,4% TACC’21/23). A medio plazo las perspectivas son positivas por el desarrollo estructural del e-commerce, un mejor posicionamiento en Express y por mejoras de productividad en Mercancías. Todo ello nos lleva a revisar un +7% el EBIT’21/25e (c.+3% vs objetivo DPW y c.+2% vs consenso), situando el P.O. en 65,3 euros/acc. (+15% vs anterior). A pesar del buen comportamiento del valor (+12% vs ES50 en 2021 y -4% vs sector), vemos recorrido con un potencial >+10% y una atractiva rentabilidad por dividendo (~4%, incluye ~1,4% en recompras de acciones que vemos sostenibles).
Underlyings
Airbus Group SE

CaixaBank SA

Caixabank is an investment company based in Spain. Co. is involved in investment portfolio management activities across two areas: Services and Financial Business and Insurance. In the services area, Co. provides investment solutions for companies involved in the infrastructure, energy, services and entertainment sectors. In the financial business and insurance area, Co. is engaged in the investments for international banks, insurance and specialist financial services. Co. focuses most of its banking investments in India, China, the U.S., and Central and Eastern Europe with a particular interest in retail banking. Co. is also involved in the disinvestments activities.

Cellnex Telecom S.A.

Cellnex Telecom SA is a Spain-based company engaged in the wireless telecommunications (telecom) business. Its activities are divided into three segments: Broadcasting infrastructure, Telecom site rental, as well as Network services and other. The Broadcasting infrastructure division comprises distribution and transmission of television (TV) and frequency modulation (FM) radio signals, operation and maintenance (O&M) of radio broadcasting network, as well as over-the-top (OTT) radio services, among others. The Telecom site rental division provides access to wireless infrastructure, primarily through infrastructure hosting and telecom equipment co-location, mainly for mobile network operators and other wireless and broadband telecom network operators. The Network services and other division offers connectivity services for a variety of telecom operators and radio communication, among others. The Company also develops 5th generation mobile networks (5G) through Alticom BV.

DHL GROUP

Deutsche Post is a mail and logistics services group. In its Mail division, Co. provides domestic and international mail and parcels and is engaged in dialogue marketing, nationwide press distribution services and the electronic services related to mail delivery. Co.'s Express division provides courier and express services to business and private customers globally. Co.'s Global Forwarding, Freight division manages the carriage of goods by rail, road, air and sea, ranging from container transport to solutions for industrial projects. Co.'s Supply Chain division provides warehousing, managed transport and services at every link in the supply chain for customers in a variety of industries.

Endesa S.A.

Endesa is engaged in the production, transmission, distribution, and supply of electricity, through hydroelectric, fossil fuel, and nuclear generation. Co. is also engaged in the mining of coal for use in its fossil-fuel electric plants; mining research; land restoration, and environmental monitoring and control.

Iberdrola SA

Iberdrola is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, Co. operates in four segments: network business, which includes all the energy transmission and distribution activities, and other regulated activity originated in Spain, the U.K., the U.S. and Brazil; deregulated business, which includes electricity generation and sales businesses as well as gas trading and storage businesses carried on by Co. in Spain, Portugal, the U.K. and North America; renewable business, with activities related to renewable energies in Spain, the U.K., the U.S. and the rest of the world; and other businesses, including the engineering and construction businesses and the non-power businesses.

Melia Hotels International S.A.

Melia Hotels International is the parent company of a group engaged in the acquisition, management and operation of hotels. Co. operates its hotel network in Germany, Argentina, Brazil, Bulgaria, Cabo Verde, Chile, China, Costa Rica, Croatia, Cuba, Egypt, Spain, United States, France, Greece, Netherlands, Indonesia, Italy, Luxembourg, Malaysia, Mexico, Panama, Peru, Portugal, Puerto Rico, United Kingdom, Dominican Republic, Singapore, Switzerland, Tunisia, Uruguay, Venezuela and Vietnam under the followings brandnames: Paradisus Resorts®, Melia Hotels & Resorts®, TRYP Hoteles® and Sol Hotels & Resorts®.

Obrascon Huarte Lain SA

Obrascon Huarte Lain is an international concession and construction groups based in Spain. Co. maintains significant operations in 30 countries across all five continents. Co. is engaged in hospital and railway construction, transport infrastructure concessions, oil and gas, energy, solids handling and fire protection systems and international contracts. Co.'s operations are organized along four divisions: OHL Concesiones, OHL Construccion, OHL Industrial y OHL Desarrollos. Co. is also engaged in real state project developments of mixed use managed by the international hotel chains.

Repsol SA

Repsol is an oil and gas company. Co. is engaged in all the activities relating to the oil and gas industry, including exploration, development and production of crude oil and natural gas, transportation of oil products, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and natural gas, refining, the production of a wide range of oil products and the retailing of oil products, oil derivatives, petrochemicals, LPG and natural gas, as well as the generation, transportation, distribution and supply of electricity. Co. operates in more than 40 countries. Co.'s operations are divided into four segments: Upstream, Downstream, LNG and Gas Natural Fenosa.

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Sabadell

Analysts
Research Department

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