EUR 100.00 For Business Accounts Only

IBERIAN DAILY 09 NOVEMBER + 3Q'23 RESULTS. HIGHLIGHTS AND REST OF PREVIEWS (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

NEWS SUMMARY: ALMIRALL, ARCELORMITTAL, NH HOTELS, TELEFÓNICA.

At the end of today’s report, and during the entire results season, we will include a presentation with positive and negative results highlights and previews for the 3Q’23 results to be released over the coming days in Spain.

The Treasury below 4.5%
European stock markets recovered through yesterday’s session, benefiting from the tightening in the US sovereign debt, ending with gains >+0.5%. In the STOXX 600, Consumer Goods, Travel&Leisure (in view of a new drop in crude oil prices) and Retail led gains, climbing >+1.0%, whereas Household (dragged down by Ahold’s results) and Basic Resources ended with the biggest drops. On the macro side, in the euro zone September’s retail sales slowed down more than expected. From the ECB, J. Nagel (hawkish) ruled out the possibility of cutting interest rates for the time being. In this regard, G. Makhlouf (dovish) considers it is too soon to rule out new rises. Furthermore, the chief economist, P. Lane (hawkish) expects an increase in inflation in 2024 after the effects from the energy prices ease. Meanwhile, the IMF recommended to keep rates at sufficiently restrictive levels until 2024, around 4%. In China, October’s inflation fell again to negative territory and below expectations, underscoring the lack of dynamism of its economy. In US 3Q’23 Results, Biogen beat expectations, Ralph Lauren were in line, whereas Warner Bros and Walt Disney released disappointing figures.
What we expect for today
European stock markets would open flat. Currently, S&P futures are up +0.1% (the S&P 500 ended +0.5% higher vs. the European closing bell). Volatility in the US was stable (VIX 14.45). Asian stock markets are mixed (China’s CSI 300 flat, Japan’s Nikkei +1.5%).
Today in the US we will learn weekly jobless claims and in Mexico October’s inflation and the meeting of Mexico’s Central Bank. In US business results, Westrock, Illuminia and News Corp among others, will release their earnings.


COMPANY NEWS

ALMIRALL. Better 3Q’23 Results on the operating level. The company kept 2023 guidance unchanged. BUY.
3Q’23 Results above expectations on the operating level (EBITDA € 37 M vs. € 34 M BS(e) and € 33 M consensus) thanks to the better margin performance (17.7% vs. ~16% BS(e) and consensus). Net Profit also came in above expectations (€ 2 M vs. -1 M BS(e)) despite the higher tax spending (€ -7 M vs. -2 M BS(e)) and cash slightly weaker (NFD € 29 M; vs. € 3 M BS(e); 0.2x NFD/EBITDA) due to working capital. The company raised its sales guidance’23 up to mid-single digit (vs. low to mid-single digit previously), which was already unveiled at the Conference Call on 1H’23 Results, keeping its EBITDA forecast’23 at between € 165 M and € 180 M (vs. € 176 M BS(e) and € 174 M consensus). We do not expect a relevant impact despite its lacklustre performance (-1% in 2023; -8% vs. IBEX).

ARCELORMITTAL. 3Q’23 Results slightly better than expected, outlook downgrade in Europe. BUY.
3Q’23 Results came in slightly better than expected in EBITDA (US$ 1.87 Bn vs. US$1.79 Bn BS(e) and US$ 1.82 Bn consensus), although below 2Q’23 levels due to the cost-price spread, which was expected in any case. In terms of guidance, the company keeps its aggregated apparent consumption forecast ex-China unchanged (+1/+2%) even though it cut its estimate for Europe (now expecting it to be below the previous range of -0.5%/+1.5%). Furthermore, the company reiterated its optimism about the medium-term prospects in the sector (confirmed by EBITDA/t levels clearly above the historical average despite the current environment), remaining confident that its robust balance sheet will allow it to continue developing its growth and operating improvement strategy.