EUR 100.00 For Business Accounts Only

IBERIAN DAILY 04 FEBRUARY + 4Q’25 RESULTS. PREVIEWS (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

NEWS SUMMARY: GREENING, SANTANDER.

At the end of today’s report, and during the entire results season, we will include a presentation with positive and negative results highlights and previews for the 4Q’25 results to be released over the coming days in Spain.

Markets stabilise
Caution prevailed yesterday, with business results leadig the performance again and with precious metals seeing new gains. In the STOXX 600, Basic Resources (in view of the rally of raw materials) and Food were the best performers vs. the drops of Media and Technology. On the macro side, in Spain, January’s number of unemployed climbed to the lowest level since 2022. The US ended the partial government shutdown, although it will postpone the release of macro data this week. In Brazil, December’s industrial output rose less than expected. In China the final manufacturing PMI rose more than expected. In US business results, Pfizer beat expectations, Pepsi Co was in line and PayPal worse than expected.
What we expect for today
European stock markets would open with slight gains after yesterday’s corrections in the technology sector. Currently, S&P futures are up +0.15% (the S&P 500 ended -0.47% lower vs. the European closing bell). Asian markets are mixed (China’s CSI 300 +0.65%, Japan’s Nikkei -0.75% and South Korea’s Kospi +1.57%).
Today in Europe we will learn January’s inflation and final manufacturing PMI, in the US ADP private employment and January’s non-manufacturing ISM. In 4Q’25 US business results, Alphabet, Uber, Fox and Eli Lilly, among others, will release their earnings.



COMPANY NEWS

SANTANDER. Better 4Q’25 Results, optimistic guidance and acquisition of Webster in the US. OVERWEIGHT.
4Q’25 Results+10% vs. expectations in Net Profit thanks to better revenues (+2% vs. expectations in NII and +5% in fee revenues). The group announced a calendar of € 8.3 Bn of buybacks (5% yield) through 2H’26/ 1Q’27 up to € 10 Bn expected. On the positive side, the ROTE target’28 of 20% provided a favourable surprise (vs. 17.9% BS(e) and 16.3% consensus), already taking into account the acquisition of Webster Bank for € 10.3 Bn (6% of SAN’s market cap) 65% in cash and 35% in shares. SAN will pay market prices: 2x P/TE’25 for a 17% ROTE’25. The share payment will dilute shareholders by -2.2% in 2H’26 (expected completion date), who will have to wait until 2028 for +7%/+8% EPS accretion according to SAN. Although it is true that this synergy commitment is currently a future possibility we welcome the fact that the capital consumption in this deal (140bps) will be offset by 70/90bps of capital generation in 2026 from 13.5%, SAN foresees a 12.8%/13% CET1’26 post Webster (14.2% ex Webster) and thus it does not lose capital. It also unveiled an optimistic short-term guidance. We expect a positive market reaction.