EUR 100.00 For Business Accounts Only

IBERIAN DAILY 09 OCTOBER (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

NEWS SUMMARY: INDRA, REPSOL.

Europe returns to positive territory
European stock markets rallied, nearing last week’s highs (with the resistance level for the Euro STOXX50 at 5,650 points), whereas the Ibex35 continues to soar. In the STOXX 600, Consumer Goods, Basic Resources and Banks led gains whereas Autos, Real Estate and Technology were the only sectors ending in negative territory. On the macro side, in Germany, August’s industrial output slowed down more than expected. On another note, the German Finance Ministry raised its growth forecasts for 2025 to 0.2% (vs. 0.0% prev.) thanks to the better internal demand, foreseeing 1.3% and 1.4% growth in 2026-27, respectively. In the US, the minutes from the Fed’s last meeting shoed its members are in favour of rate cuts this year, but remaining somewhat cautious due to the inflation scenario. In geopolitics, Israel and Hamas signed a peace agreement beginning with a first phase of hostage exchanges, but it will be some time before a subsequent phase in which Hamas disarms, Israel withdraws its troops definitively and an international security force is deployed. China will introduce a system of permits for foreign companies exporting products containing rare earth materials. Separately, NATO would give permission for a military response to the hybrid war waged by Russia outside Ukraine.
What we expect for today
European stock markets would open with a sightly bearish bias, with oil companies lagged down by the drop in crude oil but with construction groups benefiting from the peace agreement. Currently, S&P futures are up +0.10% (yesterday the S&P 500 ended practically unchanged vs. the European closing bell). Asian markets are climbing (China’s CSI 300 +1.40% and Japan’s Nikkei +1.50%).
Today in Mexico and Brazil we will learn September’s inflation and in the US weekly jobless claims.



COMPANY NEWS

REPSOL. Good 3Q’25 Trading statement thanks to industrial. T.P. Upgrade. OVERWEIGHT
Good 3Q’25 Trading statement thanks to industrial in view of the good refining margin (US$ 8.80/b vs. US$ 5.90/b 2Q’25 vs. US$ 6.00/b guidance) and the absence of the blackout impact. In Upstream the better Brent crude prices (US$ 69.10/b vs. US$ 67.90/b 2Q’25 vs. US$ 70.00/b guidance) did not offset the drop in HH gas prices (US$ 3.10/Mbtu vs. US$ 3.40/Mbtu 2Q’25 vs. US$ 4.00/Mbtu guidance), the depreciation of the dollar and lower output (551K boe vs. 557Kboe 2Q’25; at the top end of the guidance). In its 3Q’25 Results (30/10), we foresee € 783 M of adjusted Net Profit (+11% vs. 2Q’25), around +14% vs. consensus. We expect a positive reading from this trading statement despite the good share price performance seen in 2025 (+39%, in line with the Ibex vs. +26% sector). After revising estimates (+7% average Net Profit’25-27e) thanks to the better refining margin, Brent crude, HH and commercial we raise our T.P. by +13% up to € 16.58/sh. (+11% upside).