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IBERIAN DAILY 28 JULY + 2Q’25 RESULTS. HIGHLIGHTS AND REST OF PREVIEWS (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

NEWS SUMMARY: IBERDROLA, SANTANDER, TELEFÓNICA.

At the end of today’s report, and during the entire results season, we will include a presentation with positive and negative results highlights and previews for the 2Q’25 results to be released over the coming days in Spain.

Trade agreement between Europe and the US
It was a week of little movement in Europe, where the trade agreement between the EU and the US was announced in the end with a general 15% tariff (vs. the threats of 30%) that will be implemented on practically all sectors including automobiles but not on steel and aluminium (with a 50% tariff) or on airspace products (that will be excluded). This agreement will include US$ 600 bn of investments in the US and purchases worth US$ 750 Bn in US energy and military equipment. The decisions on pharmaceutical products and semiconductors are still pending. On another note, tariffs to China are extended for 90 days to continue negotiations. In the STOXX 600, there was strong sector rotation between the best performers, which were Basic Materials and Travel & Leisure, and the worst performers, which were Technology and Financial Services. On the macro side, in the UK June’s retail sales rose less than expected, especially bearing in mind the core components. In the euro zone, June’s M3 slowed more than expected. In Germany, July’s IFO rose, but less than consensus estimates, in both the current situation and expectations components. In the US, core capital goods orders contracted unexpectedly in June, dragged down by the tariff uncertainty. In US business results, Phillips 66 beat expectations and Aon was in line.
What we expect for today
European stock markets would open with gains of 1% after the worst trade war scenarios were avoided. We expect solid performance in general, especially in Autos (lower tariff), Industrials (defence spending and the aerospace sector) and relatively worse in Basic Materials and Energy. Currently, S&P futures are up +0.4% (the S&P 500 ended +0.15% higher vs. the European closing bell). Asian markets are mixed (China’s CSI 300 +0.1% and Japan’s Nikkei -1.0%).
Today in Mexico we will learn June’s unemployment rate. In US business results Revvity and Cadence Design Systems, among others, will release their earnings.