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IBERIAN DAILY 30 JULY + 2Q’25 RESULTS. HIGHLIGHTS AND REST OF PREVIEWS (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

NEWS SUMMARY: CAIXABANK, FERROVIAL, GRIFOLS, REDEIA, SACYR, SANTANDER, TALGO, TELEFÓNICA.

At the end of today’s report, and during the entire results season, we will include a presentation with positive and negative results highlights and previews for the 2Q’25 results to be released over the coming days in Spain.

Results take centre stage
Recovery in Europe in a session marked by the results calendar and news on the trade negotiations of the US with China and the EU. In the STOXX 600, the rally was led by Banks and Insurance, whereas Pharma and Basic Materials were hit the hardest by the trade uncertainty. On the macro side, in Spain the first reading of the 2Q’25 GDP was above expectations and the previous data thanks to private consumption and investments. From the ECB, consumer expectations on inflation for the next 12 months fell to 2.6% in June (vs. previous 2.8%), while expectations for the next 3-5 years remained stable at 2.4%/2.1%, respectively. In the US, Conference Board consumer confidence for July rose more than expected, although remaining at a low level. The trade deficit fell more than expected in June due to the falling imports. JOLTS job openings for June fell more than expected, but the job market remains resilient. The IMF’s July forecasts showed a resistant economy in the midst of persistent trade uncertainty, although the impact will be less severe than initially expected. US growth improved to 1.9% in 2025 (+0.1pp vs. previously) and to 2.0% in 2026 (+0.3pp), compared to the euro zone’s 1.0% in 2025 (+0.2pp) and 1.2% (flat) in 2026. In US business results, PayPal, Boeing and Sysco beat expectations, United Health and Electronic Arts released disappointing earnings and Procter&Gamble, Visa, Booking, Starbucks and Merck&Co were in line.
What we expect for today
European stock markets would open with a positive slant but marked by the earnings calendar. Currently, S&P futures are up +0.13% (the S&P 500 ended down -0.10% vs. the European closing bell). Asian markets are mixed (China’s CSI 300 +0.57% and Japan’s Nikkei -0.13%).
Today in Germany we will learn June’s retail sales, in Spain July’s inflation, in the euro zone the preliminary 2Q’25 GDP and July’s economic confidence index, in Mexico the preliminary 2Q’25 GDP, in the US July’s ADP private employment survey, June’s pending home sales and the Fed meeting and in Brazil the BoB will meet. In US business results Kraft Heinz, Verisk Analytics, PPG, Garmin, QUALCOMM, Ford Motor, Meta (Facebook), eBay and Microsoft, among others, will release their earnings.



COMPANY NEWS

CAIXABANK, UNDERWEIGHT
The 2Q’25 results slightly beat expectations in revenues (+0.6% and +0.7% vs. expectations in NII and Service Revenues), and below expectations in taxes, which means it beat the consensus Net Profit estimate by +9% (+1% vs. our estimate). ROTE came in at 18.5% vs. 18.8% in 1Q’25 and CET1 remained quite stable: 12.5% vs. 12.46% in March’25.
CABK improved its guidance very slightly in service revenues, CoR and ROTE: (i) it maintains a mid-single-digit drop in NII (vs. -2.7% BS(e) and -4.4% consensus), expecting it to break into positive numbers starting in 2H’26; (ii) mid-single-digit growth in Service Revenues vs. previous low- to mid-single-digit growth previously (vs. +3.4% BS(e)); (iii) costs rising +5% (vs. +5.6% BS(e) and +7.9% consensus); (iv) CoR of 25bps vs. 16% vs. ~16% previously (vs. 16.4% BS(e) and consensus); (vi) CET1 between 11.5% and 12.25% (vs. 12.7% BS(e) and 12.5% consensus), opting to carry out buybacks if it exceeds 12.25%; (vii) 50-60% payout.
We expect a slightly bullish reaction due to the small increase to the guidance. CABK has slightly underperformed its sector coming into these results (+23% in 3 months vs. +27% sector).

FERROVIAL. 2Q’25 Results below expectations on the operating level but Highways beats estimates again. OVERWEIGHT.
2Q’25 Results below expectations in EBITDA (€ 346 M vs. € 377 M consensus and € 381 M BS(e)) due largely to Construction where margins came in at 5.6% (vs. 6.2% expected; -50bps vs. 2Q’24). However, Highways (84% T.P.) beat expectations once more (EBITDA € 261 M vs. € 250 M expected) and Managed Lanes confirmed the positive rate performance seen in 1Q’25 (growing between +8% and +22% in 2Q’25 vs. 2.9% soft cap), along with higher traffic practically in all assets. Net cash ex infra fell € -1.62 Bn to € 223 M (vs. € 301 M BS(e)) due mainly to the acquisition of 5.06% of the ETR407 highway (€ -1.27 Bn). We expect a positive slant in today’s market reaction after climbing +12% in 2025 (-11% vs. IBEX).

GRIFOLS, OVERWEIGHT
2Q’25 Results came in slightly above expectations on the operating level (Adjusted EBITDA € 476 M vs. € 465 M BS(e)) and € 462 M consensus; +8% vs. 2Q’24) with better FCF performance (€ +30 M vs. +14 M BS(e)) and debt, which fell by -0.3x to 4.2x NFD/Adj.-EBITDA (vs. ~4.4x Aj. BS(e)). The company announced a € 0.15/sh. interim dividend’25 (vs. € 0.00 in 2024; 1.2% yield), keeping its sales guidance’25 unchanged (despite FX) between € 7.55 Bn and € 7.6 Bn (vs. € 7.6 Bn consensus), and adjusted EBITDA between € 1.87 and € 1.93 Bn (vs. € 1.9 Bn consensus) although it riased FCF’25 to € 375/425 M ex M&A (vs. € 350 and 400 M previously).
We expect a positive but limited market impact following its good recent performance (+67% from April’s lows; +46% vs. IBEX).

REDEIA. 1H’25 Results in line with expectations. The Conference Call will be focused on the power outage. OVERWEIGHT.
1H’25 Results in line with expectations. 1H’25 EBITDA came in at € 636 M (+2.8% vs. 1H’24 with restated results without Hispasat, in line with the consensus and BS) whereas reported Net Profit totalled € 269.5 M (+0.1% vs. 1H’24 vs. flat BS and consensus). We would not foresee any impact from these results and the Conference Call (11:30 CET) will be focused on the power outage (where RED estimates that assessing the volume of claims is not possible for the time being and that this is unlikely to mean cash outflow in the future, and thus it would not have made any provisions for the time being), on the new transmission network and the upcoming transmission system infrastructure planning’25-30e

SACYR, OVERWEIGHT
The 2Q’25 results beat expectations in EBITDA (€ 346 M vs. € 329 M BS(e) and € 322 M consensus; +9% vs. 2Q’24) and also Net Profit (€ 4 M vs. € -13 M BS(e)), including the impact from the sale of concessions in Colombia (€ -65 M; already known). Operating CF performed well, reaching € 375 M on the quarter (vs. € 280 M BS(e); +6% vs. 2Q’24; +108% EBITDA conversion), whereas recourse NFD rose by € 21 M to € 297 M (vs. € 296 M BS(e)), but this does not yet include the divestiture in Colombia (€~280 M). The company has updated the value of its concessions to € 3.96 Bn (+11% vs. Dec’24 and +26% vs. our valuation).
We expect a positive reaction. The stock has risen +14% in 2025 (-10% vs. IBEX).

SANTANDER. 2Q’25 results lacking surprises. Guidance’25 maintained. OVERWEIGHT
The results are very much in line in revenues and better in taxes, which means beating expected Net Profit by +2%. ROTE continues to improve to 16% vs. 15.8% in 1Q’25 (and guidance’25 of 16.5%). Nothing new in CET1: 13% vs. 12.9% in 1Q’25. The company maintained its guidance’25. Given the total lack of surprises and the fact the guidance was maintained, we think the reception could have a slightly negative slant. SAN has performed well over the past three months (+34% vs. +27% sector). Despite everything, the stock still has upside (1.3x P/TE’25e; 8.6x P/E’25e for a ROTE’25 above 15.5%). Following these results we will raise our estimates, due especially to the solid performance in fee revenues, +5%/+6% in Net Profit’25-27, with an impact of +6%/+7% on the valuation.

TELEFÓNICA, OVERWEIGHT
2Q’25 Results in line with expectations with a -12.7% 2Q’25 sales drop (vs. -13% consensus), hit by the depreciation of currencies (+1.5% organic). EBITDA € 2.91 Bn (-4.2%; +1.2% organic), with strength in Spain (sales +1.9%, EBITDA +1%) and Brazil (sales ex currency +7.1%; EBITDA +8.6%), both around +0.5%/+1% above expectations. NFD (€ 27.61 Bn; 2.78x NFD/EBITDA) came in +1.5% higher due to seasonality although FCF (€ 505 M) beat expectations by +9%. The company reiterated its 2025 guidance and dividend’25.
Results in line with expectations but with stronger FCF. We expect a neutral or slightly positive market reaction.