EUR 100.00 For Business Accounts Only

IBERIAN DAILY 04 APRIL (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

NEWS SUMMARY: BANKINTER, CELLNEX, ELECTRICITY SECTOR.

IBEX back above 11,000 points
It was a positive session (although not without volatility) for European markets, with sovereign yields widening once again and with the IBEX being the best performer. In the STOXX 600, Banks and Technology led the gains vs. Insurance and Food, which had the biggest losses. On the macro side, in the euro zone March’s inflation fell more than expected to 2.4% YoY, with the core figure at 2.9%, whereas February’s unemployment rate rose more than expected to 6.5%. From the ECB, Holzmann pointed to June as the possible start of rate cuts. In the US, the non-manufacturing ISM, although remaining in an expansive zone, fell more than expected, with the drop in the price subindex also standing out. ADP private employment rose more than expected, its biggest increase since June’23. From the Fed, J. Powell repeated his message of caution on claiming victory over inflation, but he is confident rate cuts will come in 2024. In Brazil, February’s industrial output rose less than expected and March’s services PMI improved slightly to 54.8 from the previous 54.6. In Turkey, general inflation (YoY) rose less than expected, but the core figure rose more than expected (and above the general figure) to 75.2% YoY.
What we expect for today
European stock markets would open flat, with a slight bullish slant. Currently, S&P futures are up +0.30% (the S&P 500 ended down -0.15% vs. the European closing bell). Asian stock markets are rising (China’s CSI 300 closed, Japan’s Nikkei +1.14%).
Today in the euro zone we will learn March’s final services PMI.


COMPANY NEWS

CELLNEX. New strategic plan; more available cash and more focused on shareholders. BUY
We estimate an accumulated dividend’23-30 of € 3.0 Bn (13% yield, beginning in 2026: ~2.2% yield), with accumulated cash generated’23-30 of € 8.48 Bn (36% market cap) vs. >€ 10 Bn from the guidance (leveraged between 2026-30). Including the leverage, we would obtain a range of € 7.83 Bn (35% market cap) to € 12.34 Bn (55% market cap) at the more aggressive end of the range. The remainder could be used for share buybacks, an extraordinary dividend or opportunistic investments in the business. We obtain a T.P. of € 45.20/sh. (-1.9% vs. previous; +39.5% upside). The stock is trading at 15.6x EV/EBITDAaL’25e and below its peers (>17x), compared to the sale of the Irish business at 24x.