Report
Esther Castro ...
  • Maria Paz Ojeda
EUR 400.00 For Business Accounts Only

BANKING SECTOR REPORT: INTEREST RATES VS. COR - THAT IS THE QUESTION (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

INTEREST RATES VS. COST OF RISK, THAT’S THE QUESTION.
We revise the banking sector in the light of the new economic scenario and the duality between the improvement of revenues through rate rises and the hike in NPL provisions. In net terms, we believe that the former will exceed the latter bearing in mind the excess provisions in balance sheet and the strength of capital. The strong corrections in the past quarter mean March’20 valuation levels, pricing in Net Profit’23 ~-40% below expectations or, alternatively, a risk premium, measured through the rate of discount, around +50% vs. BS(e). Although we will see slowdown, we rule out such an adverse scenario, maintaining our BUY recommendation for all the stocks in our coverage universe, yielding >50% upside in all cases. With this in mind, volatility will continue, with stock picking being key. We bet on domestic banks: CABK, BKT and UNI (sensitivity to rates, capital). Among the banks we like the least we stress SAN (after doubts on Banamex are dispelled) and BBVA (risk on Turkey).
Underlyings
Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria S.A.

Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria is an international financial group, engaged primarily on providing banking services and consumer finance to private individuals and businesses in Spain and Portugal; providing real estate activity in Spain; providing services to international companies and investment banking, capital markets and treasury management services to clients; and providing the banking, insurance and pension businesses in Mexico and the U.S., as well as in South America.

Banco Santander S.A.

Banco Santander is a holding company, providing a range of financial products. Co.'s products and services include: retail banking business that covers all customer banking businesses; wholesale banking business; as well as asset management and insurance business. Co.'s principal operations are in Spain, the U.K., Portugal, Germany, Italy and Latin America. As of Dec 31 2014, Co.'s total assets amounted to Euro1,266,296,000,000 and total customer deposits amounted to Euro647,627,000,000.

Bankinter SA

Bankinter is the parent company of a group engaged in banking activities. Services provided include: investment banking; capital market services; financial services insurance; international services such as foreign exchange transactions and travelers' checks; wholesale corporate banking; and retail and private banking services. Co. offers its products and services through the following channels of distribution: branch network; telephone banking, interactive (software) banking; agents; and Internet banking. As of Dec 31 2014, Co. had assets totalling Euro57,332,974,000 and deposits totalling Euro29,966,129,000.

CaixaBank SA

Caixabank is an investment company based in Spain. Co. is involved in investment portfolio management activities across two areas: Services and Financial Business and Insurance. In the services area, Co. provides investment solutions for companies involved in the infrastructure, energy, services and entertainment sectors. In the financial business and insurance area, Co. is engaged in the investments for international banks, insurance and specialist financial services. Co. focuses most of its banking investments in India, China, the U.S., and Central and Eastern Europe with a particular interest in retail banking. Co. is also involved in the disinvestments activities.

Unicaja Banco S.A.

Unicaja Banco SA is a Spain-based financial institution (the Bank) engaged in the banking sector. The Bank offers services to individual and business customers. Its products and services range includes current and savings accounts, debit and credit cards, consumer and commercial loans, real estate credit, securities brokerage, funds management, leasing, factoring, pension plans, life and non-life insurance, international trade financing, money transfer, as well as treasury, among others. The Bank operates a number of branches in Spain and Morocco. The Bank is controlled by Fundacion Bancaria Unicaja.

Provider
Sabadell
Sabadell

Analysts
Esther Castro

Maria Paz Ojeda

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