INFORME DIARIO 31 OCTUBRE (ANÃLISIS BANCO SABADELL)
COMPAÑÃAS QUE APARECEN EN EL INFORME. ESPAÑA. BANKINTER, BBVA, CAIXABANK, ENCE, EUSKALTEL, FCC, FEROVIAL, GLOBAL DOMINION, IAG, MEDIASET ESPAÑA, NEINOR HOMES, SECTOR ELECTRICIDAD Y GAS. EUROPA: ING, SAFRAN, SANOFI.La Fed, de acuerdo con el mercado
CaÃdas en las bolsas europeas después de un dÃa cargado de presentaciones de resultados. En el Euro STOXX encabezaron las subidas C. Personal y Farma frente a el peor comportamiento de Bancos y QuÃmicas. Por el lado macro, la Fed finalmente recortó tipos dejando la horquilla en 1,75%-1,50% (por tercera vez este año) y aunque Powell dejó caer que detendrá las bajadas al sentirse cómodo en estos niveles también adelantó que la Fed seguirá ajustando su polÃtica monetaria en función del escenario macro y que en ese sentido los tipos no subirán hasta que la inflación no suba hasta el objetivo de la Fed. E. George y E. Rosengren volvieron a votar en contra de la decisión. En España la inflación preliminar de octubre avanzó más de lo esperado aunque se queda en un débil 0,1%. En Alemania el desempleo de octubre empeoró algo más de lo esperado. En la Eurozona el indicador de clima económico de octubre empeoró más de lo esperado. En EE.UU. la primera lectura del PIB del 3T’19 se desaceleró menos de lo esperado (1,9% vs 1,7% cons.) por la resistencia del consumo privado, que compensó el deterioro de la inversión en bs de equipo y del sector exterior. La encuesta ADP de empleo de octubre salió mejor a pesar de moderar el ritmo de creación. Desde el frente comercial, S. Mnuchin apuntó que las ventas agrÃcolas a China aumentarán hasta los 40.000/50.000 M de dólares de forma temporal. En Brasil el Banco Central recortó el tipo de interés Selic como se esperaba en 50 p.b. hasta el 5,0%. En Japón el BoJ mantiene los tipos inalterados pero cambia su mensaje a que mantendrá los tipos de interés bajos hasta que sea necesario mientras que la producción industrial preliminar de septiembre repuntó inesperadamente. En China el PMI manufacturero y de servicios de octubre descendieron más de lo esperado con los pedidos contrayéndose nuevamente y sobre todo los del exterior. En Rdos. empresariales de EE.UU. Moody’s, Facebook, Motorola, Apple y General Electric batieron las expectativas.
Qué esperamos para hoy
Las bolsas europeas vienen sin una dirección definida ante el mensaje mixto de la Fed ayer y las decepciones macro en China. Los futuros del S&P cotizan con subidas del +0,05% (el S&P 500 cerró con subidas del +0,43% respecto al cierre de los mercados en Europa). La volatilidad en EE.UU. bajó (VIX 12,33%). Los mercados asiáticos que están abiertos cotizan con subidas (Hong Kong +0,78% Japón +0,37%).
Hoy en España la primera lectura del PIB del 3T’19 y la balanza por cuenta corriente de agosto. En la Eurozona el PIB preliminar del 3T’19 y la inflación preliminar de octubre. En EE.UU. el coste del empleo del 3T’19, el gasto personal de septiembre y el paro semanal. En Rdos. empresariales en EE.UU. Estee Lauder, Intercontinental, Bristol Myers, Kraft Heinz y Gartner entre otros.
ESPAÑA
BANKINTER, VENDER
Presentó ayer a cierre de mercado, Rdos. 3T’19 mejor de lo esperado en todas las lÃneas de actividad. Recordamos que estos Rdos. tienen una lectura complicada dado que se incorporan 3 meses de actividad de Evo Banco (vs 1 mes de actividad en 2T’19). El CET1 FL se incrementa +7 p.b. en trimestre que lo dejan en referencias del 11,57% y ya en rango de guidance de la CompañÃa de c. 11,5%. SerÃa esperable que se liberasen además unos entre +10 p.b., +20 p.b. por la aprobación de los modelos internos en Empresas previsible para 4T’19. En conclusión, dinamismo comercial que contrasta más aún con los comparables que han presentado Rdos., en un contexto en el que recordamos que la CompañÃa ha publicado su ratio de SREP que se mantendrá constante para 2 años (vs revisión anual de comparables). EsperarÃamos buena lectura, más aún cuando la acción cayó ayer un -1%.
BBVA, VENDER
Ha publicado un BDI de 1.223 M euros (-31,6% vs 3T’18; +6% recurrente ), c.4% por encima de lo esperado, por mejor evolución de comisiones y mayor ROF. El M. de Intereses cae un -1,7% vs 2T’19 (vs -1,3% BS(e) y -2,1% de consenso), con peor evolución frente a la esperada en España y EE.UU. (-1,3% y -1,1% vs 2T’19, respectivamente y vs c.+0% BS(e)), que se compensa parcialmente por TurquÃa . El M. Neto mejora un +10% vs 3T’18 (vs +7% BS(e) y +5% de consenso), gracias al control de costes y al mayor RoF, aunque se compensa a nivel de BAI por mayores provisiones (c.+16% vs +14% BS(e) y consenso). Por paÃses, destaca la debilidad en España (BDI -4% vs +6% BS(e) y +9% de consenso) y la mejor evolución en EE.UU. por menor CoR. El resto de divisiones han estado en lÃnea con lo esperado, con mantenimiento de tendencias en Méjico y TurquÃa. El ratio CET1 se sitúa en 11,56% (+4p.b. vs 2T’19), ligeramente por debajo de lo esperado (11,56% de consenso y 11;62% BS(e)). Esperamos reacción neutra de la cotización.
CAIXABANK. Rdos 3T’19 por encima de lo esperado por mejor evolución de los ingresos “coreâ€. COMPRAR
Ha publicado un BDI 3T’19 de 646 M euros (+37% vs 3T’18), c.+15% por encima de lo esperado, por mejor evolución de los "ingresos core" (+1,2% vs 3T'18 y vs -0,5% BS(e)) y menores costes (+2,3% vs +2,8% esperado). Sin sorpresas en calidad crediticia, con el CoR mantenido en c.15p.b. (en lÃnea y vs guidance'19
Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria is an international financial group, engaged primarily on providing banking services and consumer finance to private individuals and businesses in Spain and Portugal; providing real estate activity in Spain; providing services to international companies and investment banking, capital markets and treasury management services to clients; and providing the banking, insurance and pension businesses in Mexico and the U.S., as well as in South America.
Bankinter is the parent company of a group engaged in banking activities. Services provided include: investment banking; capital market services; financial services insurance; international services such as foreign exchange transactions and travelers' checks; wholesale corporate banking; and retail and private banking services. Co. offers its products and services through the following channels of distribution: branch network; telephone banking, interactive (software) banking; agents; and Internet banking. As of Dec 31 2014, Co. had assets totalling Euro57,332,974,000 and deposits totalling Euro29,966,129,000.
Caixabank is an investment company based in Spain. Co. is involved in investment portfolio management activities across two areas: Services and Financial Business and Insurance. In the services area, Co. provides investment solutions for companies involved in the infrastructure, energy, services and entertainment sectors. In the financial business and insurance area, Co. is engaged in the investments for international banks, insurance and specialist financial services. Co. focuses most of its banking investments in India, China, the U.S., and Central and Eastern Europe with a particular interest in retail banking. Co. is also involved in the disinvestments activities.
Ence Energia Y Celulosa is engaged in the manufacture and commercialization of wood pulp and derivatives. Co. divides its activities into the following two business lines: Forest Division: Co. manages timberlands in South America and the Iberian Peninsula. Co. is involved in trading of wood, and supplies solid wood products including: plywood, sawn timber, parquet flooring and glued-edge paneling. Co. is involved in forest and environmental consulting. Pulp Division and Energy Production: Co. is engaged in the production of Eucalyptus globulus-based TCF and ECF paper pulp. Co. is also involved in the generation of electricity through biomass power producing plants.
Euskaltel SA is a Spain-based company engaged in the provision of integrated telecommunication services. The Company's activities are divided into three segments: Residential, Business, as well as Wholesale and Other. The Residential segment provides fixed and mobile telecommunication services, broadband and wireless Internet, as well as digital television (TV) as a single service and in packages. The Business division primarily offers fixed and mobile telephony, as well as Internet access for enterprises. The Wholesale and Other area serves wholesale customers and is responsible for the delivery of communication services, such as infrastructure leasing, information technology (IT) outsourcing, as well as sell of installation material and electronics. The Company operates in the Basque Country, Spain.
Ferrovial is a transportation company based in Spain. Co. is engaged in operations in the transportation sector. Co. specializes in the design, construction, management, administration and maintenance of transport infrastructures. Co.'s services range also includes the maintenance of parking lots, and land-, sea- and air-based transport networks. Co. is also engaged in the promotion and operation of short-stay parking lots, parking regulation and management services and promotion and sale of residents' parking.
Fomento de Construcciones y Contratas is the parent company of a group engaged in sanitation services, cleaning, maintaining, purification and distribution of water, construction of highways, hydraulic works, marine works, air and rail transport infrastructure, urban developments, housing, non-residential buildings, office buildings, toll highways, parking garages, marinas and water treatment plants. Co. is also engaged in the manufacture and sale of cement and cement infrastructures, such as precast concrete elements; and in the financial markets, and real estate development, leasing and tourism.
Global Dominion Access SA is a Spain-based company primarily engaged in the construction and engineering sector. The Company's activities are divided into two segments: Multi-technological Services, which offers design, implementation and maintenance of fixed and mobile telecommunications networks, manages sales and distribution processes for telecommunications carriers, as well as renders of inspection, maintenance, repair and renovation services for industrial and energy firms, and Solutions and EPCs, which executes turnkey Engineering-Procurement-Construction (EPC) projects, provides construction, repair and renovation of industrial heating installations, as well as develops processes and other technological and business solutions in numerous sectors. Its services are provided in three areas: Technology and Telecommunications (T&T), Industry and Renewable energies. It operates worldwide in Europe, the Americas, Asia and Africa. The Company is a subsidiary of CIE Automotive SA.
Grupo Catalana Occidente is an insurance group based in Spain. Co. is engaged in insurance and reinsurance activities, including commercial, life, disability, and automobile insurance. Co. is also engaged in the sale of annuities and pension funds. Co.'s operations are organized along two businesses: Traditional business (insurance) and Credit Insurance business. Co.'s main markets are located in Spain, Germany, United Kingdom, France and the Netherlands. Co. maintains a presence in more than 40 countries.
International Airlines Group is an international scheduled airline and global premium airlines. Co.'s principal place of business is London with significant presence at Heathrow, Gatwick and London City airports.
Gestevision Telecinco is a television network company based in Spain. Co. heads a group of dependent companies, which form the Telecinco Group. Through its subsidiaries, Co. is engaged in the management and commercial exploitation of a television network. Co.'s television network acquires, produces, and distributes audiovisual content. Co. also sells the network advertising airtime, carried out by its subsidiary. In addition, Co. is involved in the sale of other advertising products; production of news programs; the production and sale of audiovisual property rights; and teleshopping.
Neinor Homes SA, formerly Neinor Homes SLU, is a Spain-based company engaged in the real estate sector. The Company focuses on the design, construction and promotion of residential properties. It develops housing projects in various Spanish cities, such as Malaga, Madrid, Barcelona, Cordoba, Vizcaya, Alicante, Almeria and Gerona.
Red Electrica is engaged in the transmission of electrical energy, the operation of the system and the management of the transmission network in the Spanish electricity system. In addition, through its subsidiaries, Co. is engaged in the acquisition, holding and management of foreign securities, co-ordination of international exchanges, provision of telecommunications services for third parties, provision of consultancy, engineering and construction services outside the Spanish electricity system, securing of funds, carrying out of financial transactions and provision of financial services.
Safran designs, develops and manufactures high technology electronics through three businesses: Aerospace, Defense and Security. Aerospace includes Aerospace Propulsion (propulsion systems for commercial aircraft, military transport, training and combat aircraft, rocket engines, civil and military helicopters) and Aircraft Equipment (mechanical, hydromechanical and electromechanical equipment); Defense (optronic, avionic and electronic systems); and Security (biometric technologies for fingerprint, iris and face recognition, identity management products, access management and transaction security, including tomographic systems for detection of dangerous or illicit substances in baggage).
Sanofi is an integrated, global healthcare company focused on patient needs and engaged in the research, development, manufacture and marketing of healthcare products. Two segments make up Co.'s business: Pharmaceuticals and Vaccines. The Pharmaceuticals segment covers research, development, production and marketing of medicines, consisting of flagship products, plus a broad range of prescription medicines, generic medicines, and consumer health products. The Vaccines segment includes research, development, production and marketing of vaccines in five areas: pediatric vaccines, influenza vaccines, adult and adolescent booster vaccines, meningitis vaccines, and travel and endemic vaccines.
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