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IBERIAN DAILY 27 FEBRUARY + 4Q’24 RESULTS. HIGHLIGHTS AND REST OF PREVIEWS (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

NEWS SUMMARY: CAF, ENDESA, FCC, FERROVIAL, FLUIDRA, GRIFOLS, INDRA, TELEFÓNICA.

At the end of today’s report, and during the entire results season, we will include a presentation with positive and negative results highlights and previews for the 4Q’24 results to be released over the coming days in Spain.

Results take centre stage
The flood of business results boosted European stock markets, which rose more than +1.5% in a session full of macro data releases. In the STOXX 600, almost all the sectors rose (17/20), led by Banks (for the second straight day) and Insurance, with Pharma and Media falling the most. On the macro side, in the US January’s final building permits were lowered and new home sales fell unexpectedly. On another note, D. Trump threatened Europe with generalised tariffs of 25% and he could postpone those of Mexico and Canada until April. In Japan, the birthrate fell to lowest in 125 years. In US business results, Nvidia, Ebay and Salesforce beat expectations.
What we expect for today
European stock markets would open with profit taking of up to -0.5% with the excuse of Trump’s tariff threats. Currently, S&P futures are down -0.11% (the S&P 500 ended -0.60% lower vs. the European closing bell). Asian markets are rising (China’s CSI 300 +0.10% and Japan’s Nikkei +0.33%), while the Hang Seng is rising more than +3.0%, driven by technology and banks.
Today in the euro zone we will learn January’s M3 and February’s business confidence, in Spain February’s inflation and in Mexico and Brazil January’s unemployment rate. In US business results, Warner, HP and Dell, among others, will release their earnings.


COMPANY NEWS

CAF. Good results, with cash and strong order intake standing out. Great commercial momentum. OVERWEIGHT.
The good results saw a positive market reaction (+4.4% vs. +1.6% IBEX) thanks to the higher growth in 4Q’24 alone. We stress the good commercial momentum and the appealing sales growth (10%), with margin expansion in a company that is trading at a significant discount to its peers (around -30% in EV/EBITDA’25/26). CAF announced a € 1.34/sh. DPS (+21% vs. 2023; 3.6% yield), above expectations (€ 1.22/sh. BS(e)) and € 1.165/sh. consensus).

ENDESA. Strong FY2024 results. DPS’24 raised. OVERWEIGHT
The FY2024 results are solid, but in line with the guidance, the consensus and our estimates. EBITDA’24 came in at € 5.29 Bn (+40% vs. 2023, in line with the consensus and BS(e)) and Net Profit € 1.89 Bn (+154% vs. 2023, vs. +151% BS(e) and +150% consensus). Gx and Commercialisation +45% due to recovery of the gas margin. The company improved its DPS’24 to € 1.32/sh. (+32% vs. 2023, vs. € 1.20/sh. expected; 6% yield) with final dividend totalling € 0.82/sh. (vs. € 0.50/sh. in 2023; 3.7% yield) to be paid in July. We expect a positive market reaction. Conference call at 11:30 (CET).

FCC. 4Q’24 Results above expectations on the operating level and in line in cash. OVERWEIGHT
4Q’24 Results came in above expectations in EBITDA (€ 450 M vs. € 404 M BS(e)) thanks to the better performance of Services (EBITDA € 240 M vs. € 210 M BS(e)) and Water (EBITDA € 122 M vs. € 117 M BS(e). However, Net Profit was below expectations (€ 3 M vs. € 51 M BS(e)) due to a € -81 M provision in the UK. The NFD saw a positive performance, falling -7% to € 2.99 Bn (2.0x NFD/EBITDA), in line with our estimate (€ 3.04 Bn BS(e)). We do not foresee a relevant impact from these results after the recent good share price performance (+20% in 2025; +5% vs. IBEX).

FLUIDRA. We change our recommendation to OVERWEIGHT following the poor recent performance.
The results are slightly above expectations in sales, and this dragged down the rest of the P&L statement: Q4 sales standalone € 465 M (+9% vs. +4% BS8e) and +3% consensus), EBITDA € 91 M (+15% vs. +9% BS(e) and +6% consensus). As in previous quarters, we highlight the rise in the gross margin (+283bps vs. 4Q’23) due to the simplification programme. The EBITDA margin rose +111bps. Seasonally, Q4 is the least relevant quarter of the year, but we think the results are solid and should have a positive impact. Following the stock’s poor performance over the past month (-10%), our T.P. now has +20% upside, and thus we change our recommendation to OVERWEIGHT from the previous UNDERWEIGHT.

INDRA. Results and guidance above expectations. Strong results momentum continues. OVERWEIGHT
The results beat expectations and the guidance. Sales’24 reached € 4.84 Bn (+11.5% vs. +10.5% BS(e) and +10.7% consensus), and EBIT’24 stood at € 438 M (+26.2% vs. +22.5% BS(e) and +23.0% consensus), with a margin of 9% (vs. 8% in 2023). FCF also easily beat expectations, coming in at € 328 M (+5% vs. 2023 vs. guidance of above € 260 M and vs. € 275 M BS(e)), with € 234 M generated in 4Q’24 (+20%), leaving a net cash position of € 86 M (vs. € 107 M of NFD in 2023). The company has announced a guidance’25 above our estimates and the consensus (+5.6% in EBIT). We expect a positive reaction.

TELEFONICA. Better 4Q’24 results in sales and EBITDA (ex one-offs). Better guidance’25, but with few details. OVERWEIGHT
The 4Q’24 results beat expectations in sales (+5.4% vs. +3.1% BS(e) and +2.5% consensus), and with reported EBITDA below expectations (due to higher provisions), but adjusted EBITDA was better (+2% vs. BS(e), +3% vs. consensus). On the domestic market the figures are in line. We highlight FCF (€ 1.52 Bn), above expectations (+3% vs. BS(e), +14% vs. consensus). As for the guidance’25, awaiting the strategic review, the company indicates growth in sales and EBITDA (vs. -1.6% BS(e) and -1.9% consensus, respectively). We expect a positive reaction today, given that the guidance’25 appears to be better than expected. The stock has fallen -6% vs. the IBEX in 2025.