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IBERIAN DAILY 03 FEBRUARY + 4Q’22 RESULTS. HIGHLIGHTS AND PREVIEWS (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

NEWS SUMMARY: CAIXABANK, CELLNEX, CIE AUTOMOTIVE.

At the end of today’s report, and during the entire results season, we will include a presentation with positive and negative results highlights and previews for the 4Q’22 results to be released over the coming days in Spain.

New stock market gains
European stock markets welcomed the ECB’s decision of raising rates by “only” +50bps, questioning the ECB’s ability to implement another 50bps rise in March’23, as suggested in the communiqué that was hesitantly ratified by C. Lagarde. Thus, the Euro STOXX saw gains of +1.8%, led by Real Estate and Automobiles, whereas Energy and Banks were the only sectors in negative territory. On the macro side, in Spain, January’s unemployment rose by more than 70,740 persons, with a reduction of 215,047 social security affiliates vs. December. In the UK, the BoE raised benchmark rates by +50bps to 4.0% with 7 votes in favour or raising rates and 2 in favour of keeping them unchanged, where A. Bailey suggested that rates may be peaking. In the US, unit labour costs rose less than expected thanks to the higher-than-expected rise in non-farm productivity in the 4Q’22 and weekly jobless claims dropped unexpectedly. In China, the Caixin services PMI rose in January to 52.9 from the previous 48. In US Results, Amazon.com, Estee Lauder and Merck&Co came in better, ConocoPhillips released disappointing results, Ford, Apple and Alphabet came in below expectations.
What we expect for today
European stock markets would open with drops of as much as -0.3% and some profit taking in technology and growth in general. Currently, S&P futures are down -0.53% (the S&P 500 ended +0.19% higher vs. the European closing bell). Volatility in the US rose (VIX 18.73). Asian markets are mixed (China’s CSI 300 -1% and Japan’s Nikkei +0.4%).
Today in the euro zone we will learn January’s final services PMI and December’s production prices, in the US January’s employment data. In US business results, Aon and Cigna, among others, will release their earnings.


COMPANY NEWS

CAIXABANK. Much better results in NII. The bank confirmed the € 9 Bn distribution’22-25. BUY.
4Q’22 Results were much better in NII (€ 2.072 Bn; +33% vs. 4Q’21 and ~22% expected) thanks to the customer spread (+36bps vs. 3Q’22). Fee revenues and recurrent costs in line. The 4Q’22 CoR came in at 0.25%, in line. Net Profit totalled € 668 M, +6% vs. consensus despite higher impairments (bottom line of the P&L statement). Very good FL CET1 at 12.52% vs. 12.11% in 3Q’22. The bank announced a € 0.2306/sh. DPS’22 with a 55% payout (5.7% yield) and a dividend distribution policy’23 (as in 2022 with a 50%-60% pay-out), confirming the € 9 Bn remuneration’22-25 (€ 3.5 Bn already in 2022, joint yield 11.7%). The group made public its 2023 guidelines: € ~9 Bn NII (+30% vs. 2022 and vs. € 8.4 bn consensus), € 5.1/5.2 Bn fee revenues+insurance (~flat vs. 2022, ~consensus), € 6.3/6.4 Bn recurrent expenses (+5% vs. 2022, ~ consensus) and +10%) and positive market reaction. Conference Call 09.00 (CET).