EUR 100.00 For Business Accounts Only

IBERIAN DAILY 26 MARCH (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

NEWS SUMMARY: CAIXABANK, OHLA, REPSOL, TELEFÓNICA.

The Ibex near 11,000 points
European stock markets continued to gain ground in an increasing session with low trading volume. In the STOXX 600, Energy and Travel&Leisure led gains, whereas Media and Household saw the biggest drops. On the macro side, in Spain, the production price index slowed down to -8.2% vs. -3.9% prev. From the ECB, F. Panetta (Bank of Italy’s governor) admitted that the moderation of inflation brings closer the beginning of rate cuts, whereas the chief economist P. Lane stated that wage growth is moderating, returning to normal levels, which could open the door to cuts. In the US, new home sales were disappointing after slowing down in February although the previous data was raised. From the Fed, Bostic (Altanta’s Fed) repeated he only expects one rate cut in 2024, which underscores the difference, with the ECB willing to cut rates sooner and probably more than the Fed. In Japan, the Finance Minister Suzuki stated that the government will take action against the excessive appreciation of the yen.
What we expect for today
European stock markets would open with the same pattern seen yesterday in a session with gains, underpinned by cyclical companies. Currently, S&P futures are up +0.1% (the S&P 500 ended flat vs. the European closing bell). Asian stock markets are mixed (China’s CSI 300 +0.69%, Japan’s Nikkei -0.4%).
Today in Spain we will learn the final 4Q’23 GDP, in the US February’s durable goods orders, January’s home prices and March’s Conference Board consumer confidence.

COMPANY NEWS

TELEFÓNICA, BUY
CAIXABANK, BUY
Yesterday, SEPI communicated it had acquired 3.044% of Telefónica’s capital for € 690 M. On another note, Caixabank has lowered its stake by 1% to 2.51% following the partial settlement of a coverage through the delivery of the underlying. Both transactions are unrelated. As for the incorporation of SEPI we believe this is positive news as following the government’s decision of not presenting the 2024 General State budget there were doubts about the acquisition commitment of 10%, as SEPI did not have the € ~2.2 Bn needed for the deal. As regards TEF’s partial reduction, even though it was not expected we do not foresee any impact. Thus, SEPI becomes the fifth largest shareholder after STC (4.9%), BBVA (4.87%), Criteria-Caixa (4.9%), BlackRock (4.48%) and Vanguard (3.16%).