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IBERIAN DAILY 02 FEBRUARY + 4Q’20 RESULTS. HIGHLIGHTS AND REST OF PREVIEWS (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

NEWS SUMMARY: CELLNEX, LIBERBANK, METROVACESA, ROVI, UNICAJA.

At the end of today’s report, and during the entire results season, we will include a presentation with positive and negative results highlights and previews for the 4Q’20 results to be released over the coming days in Spain.

MARKETS YESTERDAY AND TODAY

February kicks off with gains
European markets rallied after the additional cash injections in China and somewhat better manufacturing PMIs in the euro zone. In the Euro STOXX Technology and Consumer Goods led the gains, whereas Energy ended in the red and Retail had the smallest gains. On the macro side, in Europe January’s final manufacturing PMIs improved slightly upon the preliminary readings, with positive surprises in Netherlands, Italy, France and Germany, whereas Spain was disappointing (49.3 vs. previous 51.0). On the whole, they reflect solid recovery for the economy in 1Q’21. By contrast, in the US January’s manufacturing ISM fell more than expected, calling into question the 2.3% QoQ growth expected in 1Q’21.
What we expect for today
The European indices would open with gains of +0.5%, with a better relative performance of value stocks against the backdrop of a positive results season and the struggle between the rates of vaccination and Covid-19 infections. Currently, S&P futures are up +0.6% (the S&P 500 closed flat vs. its price at the closing bell in Europe). Volatility in the US dropped (VIX 30.24). Asian markets are climbing (CSI 300 +1.2%, Japan +0.9%).
Today in the euro zone we will learn the initial reading of the 4Q’21 GDP and in Germany December’s retail sales. In US business results, Pfizer, Sysco, Exxon Mobile, Alphabet (Google) and Amazon.com, among others, will release their earnings. In debt auctions: Germany (€ 6 Bn in bonds due 2023).


COMPANY NEWS

UNICAJA. 4Q’20 Results in line on the operating level although with better revenues. BUY.
The operating performance was fully in line with expectations, with fee revenues faring better (+10.5% vs. 4Q’19 and vs. ~-0.5% expected) and NII slightly better (+0.9% vs. +0% consensus). Operating profit fell by -17% (vs. -21% and -16% consensus) due to lower trading revenues, with costs in line (-7% vs. 4Q’19). CoR’20 was in line (85bps in 2020e; 14bps ex Covid-19 and vs. 2020 guidance of 50-90bps). Net Profit totalled € 0 M due to higher generic provisions and the higher tax rate. The CET ratio came in at 15% (+30bps vs. 3Q’20) vs. 14.8% expected. Despite the YtD share price correction (-19%), these results will have no impact, with the 2021 guidance to be disclosed being key (conference call at 9:00 CET). We will update our estimates of Net Profit’21-22e by around +7%, setting our Dec’21 T.P. at € 0.72/sh. (+11% vs. previous T.P., +25% upside).

LIBERBANK. Better 4Q’20 results on the operating level, offset by higher provisions. BUY
The company has obtained € -18 M of losses (vs. € -8 M BS(e) and € -11 M consensus) with better performance in NII (+6% vs. 4Q’19 and vs. +4% expected) and costs (-6% vs. 4Q’19 and vs. +6% expected), meaning a -4% drop in Operating Income (vs. -23% expected). This is offset by higher provisions (4Q’20 CoR 59bps vs. 55bps expected, in line with the guidance), but with no deterioration in loan quality. CET1 stood at 14.4% (+30bps vs. 3Q’20), in line. Despite the stock’s accumulated drop in 2021 (-19%), these results will not have an impact, with the key being the guidance’21 in CoR. We update our estimates for Net Profit’21-22e, cutting them around -20%, but we raise our T.P. as of Dec’21 to € 0.28/sh. (+20% vs. previous, +30% upside) due to the excess capital).