EUR 100.00 For Business Accounts Only

IBERIAN DAILY 28 NOVEMBER (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

NEWS SUMMARY: GRIFOLS, OHLA, REIT SECTOR, TALGO, TELEFÓNICA.

Europe falling once again, with the IBEX back below 11,600
European stock markets fell after the news of the Trump administration’s tariff plans and the political and fiscal uncertainty in France. In the STOXX 600, the best-performing sectors were Real Estate and Household Goods, while Technology and Construction suffered the biggest losses. On the macro side, from the ECB, I. Schnabel pushed to ease monetary policy gradually and come to a neutral rate since lowering rates further would not fix the structural problems in the economy. In the US, the final 3Q’24 GDP figure confirmed the 2.8% QoQ expected. Meanwhile, weekly jobless claims fell slightly, whereas October’s durable goods orders rose less than expected, with the core capital component contracting unexpectedly. As for personal outlays, in real terms the data expanded less than expected in October, and although the core consumption deflator rose in line with expectations, the core services figure remained high. Separately, the Biden administration would be preparing a list of export bans on Chinese technology equipment that would be less harsh.
What we expect for today
Stock markets would open with gains of up to +0.5%, with strong performance from the technology sector. Currently, S&P futures are up +0.1% (the S&P 500 was +0.1% higher vs. the European closing bell). Asian markets are mixed (China’s CSI 300 -0.5%, Japan’s Nikkei +0.6%).
Today in Spain and Germany we will learn November’s inflation, in the euro zone October’s M3 and November’s consumer confidence.


COMPANY NEWS

OHLA. 3Q’24 Results below expectations on the operating level and in line in cash. OVERWEIGHT
3Q’24 Results came in below expectations on the operating level (EBITDA € 29 M vs. € 36 M BS(e); -12% vs. 3Q’23) due to weaker margins in Construction Cash was in line (4.2% vs. 4.7% BS(e); -100pb vs. 3Q’23). The company reported impairment in Canalejas project (around € -6 M to € 122 M), predicting a positive performance in October’24 (EBITDA € 16.5 M and cash generation € +16.9 M). Mixed results where we do not foresee a relevant impact after the -36% YtD share price correction (-48% vs. IBEX). With this in mind, we believe that the market is now awaiting the result of the capital increase of up to € 150 M (Dec’24-Jan’25).

REIT SECTOR. We see upside after all.
We believe that the valuations of both COL and MRL are not demanding, currently trading at discounts of -40% and -29%, respectively, vs. June’24 NTA, and with the worst of the bearish appraisal cycle apparently over. Furthermore, we believe that the portfolios under development offer value-enhancement prospects, particularly that of MRL with its data centres. For this reason, in addition to its lower leverage and higher long-term cashflow growth, we prefer MRL over COL. In the case of COL we raise our T.P. +1.8% to € 7.79/sh. (+42% upside). In MRL we raise our T.P. +4% to € 13.12/sh. (+27% upside). In both cases we recommend OVERWEIGHT.