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IBERIAN DAILY 17 JULY + 2Q’25 RESULTS. PREVIEWS (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

NEWS SUMMARY: ECOENER, FERROVIAL, PUIG BRANDS.

At the end of today’s report, and during the entire results season, we will include a presentation with positive and negative results highlights and previews for the 2Q’25 results to be released over the coming days in Spain.

Europe falling from 2025 highs
European stock markets saw their losses increase at the end of the session, marked by the start of the results season and despite the solid US macro data. In the STOXX 600, the biggest gains came in Insurance and Telecoms, whereas yesterday’s biggest winners, Technology (ASML fell more than -11% after presenting results) and Autos, ended with the biggest losses. On the macro side, in the UK June’s inflation rose more than expected, both the general and core figures, hitting a high over the past eight months, which will make the BoE’s plan to ease monetary conditions for the British economy more difficult. In Europe, Germany showed opposition to the € 1.8 Tn European budgets for the 2028-34 period, which forecast 5x spending on Defence. In the US, June’s industrial output rose more than expected, whereas production prices stagnated unexpectedly in June. The Fed’s Beige Book showed the economy growing at a very modest pace, with no strong inflationary pressures, but with significant rises in industrial costs, especially in raw materials. In US business results, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley beat expectations, whereas BofA, J&H and Prologis were in line with expectations.
What we expect for today
European stock markets would open with gains >+0.5%. Currently, S&P futures are down -0.14% (the S&P 500 ended up +0.93% vs. the European closing bell). Asian markets are rising (China’s CSI 300 +0.38% and Japan’s Nikkei +0.19%).
Today in the UK we will learn May’s ILO unemployment rate, in the euro zone June’s inflation and in the US weekly jobless claims, June’s retail sales, July’s Philadelphia Fed and NAHB residential sector confidence index. In US business results, US Bancorp, PepsiCo, Abbott Laboratories, Snap-On, United Airlines and Netflix, among others, will release their earnings.



COMPANY NEWS

PUIG BRANDS. 2Q’25 sales in line with expectations and 2025 targets confirmed. OVERWEIGHT 2Q’25 sales were in line with expectations, with +7.7% LfL growth (vs. +7.5% BS(e) and +7.5% in 1Q’25). Fragrances (~72% sales) slowed down slightly more than expected (+6.7% LfL vs. +8% BS(e) and +10.4% in 1Q’25), although still growing above the market. Make-up (~16%) recovered significantly (LfL +10.5% in 2Q’25 vs. >+5% BS(e) and -6% in 1Q’25) thanks to new launches, geographic expansion and points of sale. Skincare (~12%) continued to post a robust performance (+10.2% LfL vs. +7.5% BS(e)). The company confirmed its 2025 targets of +6%/+8% LfL (vs. +7.6% in 1H’25 and around +7% BS(e) and consensus) and around +20bps of adjusted EBITDA margin expansion (BS(e) and consensus in line), with a 20% tariff scenario (and limited impact from a rise in tariffs). In short, robust sales performance even against a more moderate growth backdrop in the sector, particularly in Fragrances. The share price has slid -10% in absolute terms in 2025 (-31% vs. Ibex and vs. +6% L’Oréal or -8% Interparfums).