EUR 100.00 For Business Accounts Only

IBERIAN DAILY 07 MAY + 1Q’25 RESULTS. HIGHLIGHTS AND REST OF PREVIEWS (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

NEWS SUMMARY: ENDESA, FLUIDRA, OHLA.


At the end of today’s report, and during the entire results season, we will include a presentation with positive and negative results highlights and previews for the 1Q’25 results to be released over the coming days in Spain.

New chancellor in Germany
Bearish session in European stock markets, with peripheral markets outperforming core. In the STOXX 600, the best-performing sectors were Energy (Brent rallying +3.9%) and Food, whereas Pharma and Basic Materials saw the biggest losses. On the macro side, in Spain the number of unemployed in April fell more than expected to July’08 levels. In Germany, the Christian Democrat Friedrich Merz was elected chancellor in a second vote. In the euro zone, April’s final services PMI was raised slightly, remaining in an expansive zone. In the US, the trade deficit rose more than expected in March. S. Bessent admitted that debt is on an unsustainable track. In China, the PBoC lowered the repo rate to 1.4% from 1.5% and will cut the reserve coefficient by -50bps. In tariffs, China and the US would begin talks this week. In geopolitics, India attacked Pakistan by air. In US business results, Duke Energy, Electronic Arts and Marriott International beat expectations.
What we expect for today
Stock markets would open flat with a slightly bullish slant. Currently, S&P futures are up +0.5% (the S&P 500 ended -0.3% lower vs. the European closing bell). Asian markets are rising (China’s CSI 300 +0.4% and Japan’s Nikkei +0.1%).
Today the Fed will meet, in the euro zone we will learn March’s retail sales and in Brazil the BoB will meet. In US business results, Walt Disney, Uber, Axon and Occidental Petroleum, among others, will release their earnings.


COMPANY NEWS

ENDESA. Better 1Q’25 Results. Guidance reiterated, we expect a positive market reaction. OVERWEIGHT
Good 1Q’25 Results, above the market consensus and our estimates. 1Q’25 EBITDA rose +33% vs. 1Q’24 (vs. +28% consensus and BS), fuelled by the improvement of the Gx+Cx businesses (due to the resilience of the marketing margin and to the gas business) and the lack of the temporary tax. Net Profit saw an improvement of +100% vs. 1Q’24 (+79% BS and +77% consensus) thanks to the improvement of the financial result and tax rate. The company reiterated its guidance: EBITDA (€ 5.4/5.6 Bn vs. € 5.43 Bn consensus and BS)/ Net Profit’25e (€ 1.9/2 Bn, in line with the consensus and BS). Conference call (10:00 CET).

FLUIDRA. Solid 1Q’25 results, with a slightly higher margin than expected. OVERWEIGHT
With the sales data already known (+7%, +5% ex-FX, announced a month ago), all eyes were on the margin, which came in slightly above expectations: 23.2% vs. 22.8% BS(e) and 23.1% consensus, and thus adjusted EBITDA rose +10%. As in previous quarters, we highlight the increase to the gross margin (+250bps vs. 1Q’24) resulting from the simplification programme, although the EBITDA margin rose only +84bps due mainly to operating cost inflation. The company reiterated its guidance for the full year, although it warns of the underlying uncertainty, mentioning that it expects to fully offset the tariffs set out by the Trump administrations (mainly through price hikes). We see the tone of the message as being positive, and we reiterate our OVERWEIGHT recommendation.