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Sales: € 309.5 M (vs. € 327 M expected and € 302 expected by the market consensus);
EBITDA: € 47.9 M (vs. € 80 M expected and € 56 expected by the market consensus);
9M'19 vs. 9M'18 Results
Sales: € 1.063 Bn (+3.3% vs. € 1.08 Bn expected and € 1.055 expected by the market consensus);
EBITDA: € 190.5 M (+5.4% vs. € 223 M expected and 199 expected by the market consensus);
The results came in below expectations, a factor we totally play down as the company reiterates its 2019 guidance: € 1.35-14 Bn of sales (vs. € 1.375 BS(e) and 1.37 consensus) and € 240-260 M of EBITDA (vs. 235 BS(e) and 242 consensus), meaning we can expect a strong 4Q’19, according to the company.
As we outlined in our estimates, the absence of comparable historical series of FDR+Zodiac’s seasonality complicated the forecast of 9M’19 Results. As of 9M’19, we expected ~80% of the total business for the year (77% according to the consensus), which was not very far: 79%.Where we were more optimistic (hence the reason for the difference) was in EBITDA: FDR accrued 76% of the total guidance vs. our estimate of 89% (82% consensus), more in line with FDR’s prior seasonality.
In debt, we expected a larger amount of payments received, reducing the figure ~15% thanks to higher accruals. But as this did not occur, what we saw was a smaller reduction to NFD (-8% vs. 1H’19).
In any event, FDR has spoken of pressure on EBITDA due to the mix and tariffs, which could raise some doubts on the market. We expect this to be cleared up in the conference call (to be held at 16:00 CET). Considering that the expected strength of the business is being delayed until 4Q’19, that today’s results could generate doubts on margins and that the stock has been trading at demanding levels (+4% vs. IBEX in 2019; especially over the past month: +3%), we expect a negative reaction (the stock was down -1% before the results were released). SELL. Target Price: € 10.00/sh. (potential -14.38%)
FLUIDRA: 9M’19 RESULTS (ANÃLISIS BANCO SABADELL)
3Q'19 vs. 3Q'18 ResultsSales: € 309.5 M (vs. € 327 M expected and € 302 expected by the market consensus);
EBITDA: € 47.9 M (vs. € 80 M expected and € 56 expected by the market consensus);
9M'19 vs. 9M'18 Results
Sales: € 1.063 Bn (+3.3% vs. € 1.08 Bn expected and € 1.055 expected by the market consensus);
EBITDA: € 190.5 M (+5.4% vs. € 223 M expected and 199 expected by the market consensus);
The results came in below expectations, a factor we totally play down as the company reiterates its 2019 guidance: € 1.35-14 Bn of sales (vs. € 1.375 BS(e) and 1.37 consensus) and € 240-260 M of EBITDA (vs. 235 BS(e) and 242 consensus), meaning we can expect a strong 4Q’19, according to the company.
As we outlined in our estimates, the absence of comparable historical series of FDR+Zodiac’s seasonality complicated the forecast of 9M’19 Results. As of 9M’19, we expected ~80% of the total business for the year (77% according to the consensus), which was not very far: 79%.Where we were more optimistic (hence the reason for the difference) was in EBITDA: FDR accrued 76% of the total guidance vs. our estimate of 89% (82% consensus), more in line with FDR’s prior seasonality.
In debt, we expected a larger amount of payments received, reducing the figure ~15% thanks to higher accruals. But as this did not occur, what we saw was a smaller reduction to NFD (-8% vs. 1H’19).
In any event, FDR has spoken of pressure on EBITDA due to the mix and tariffs, which could raise some doubts on the market. We expect this to be cleared up in the conference call (to be held at 16:00 CET). Considering that the expected strength of the business is being delayed until 4Q’19, that today’s results could generate doubts on margins and that the stock has been trading at demanding levels (+4% vs. IBEX in 2019; especially over the past month: +3%), we expect a negative reaction (the stock was down -1% before the results were released). SELL. Target Price: € 10.00/sh. (potential -14.38%)
Underlying
Fluidra S.A.
Fluidra is engaged in the manufacture and commercialization of accessories and specific products for swimming pools, irrigation, and water treatment and purification systems.
Provider
Sabadell
Javier Esteban
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