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FLUIDRA: FY2023 RESULTS AND T.P. UPGRADE (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

4Q'23 vs. 4Q'22 Results
Sales: € 428.0 M (+1.4% vs. -3.4% BS(e) and -0.3% consensus);
EBITDA: € 79.0 M (+5.8% vs. -26.4% BS(e) and -14.3% consensus);
Net Profit: € 31.0 M (+248.3% vs. +43.9% BS(e) and +91.0% consensus);
FY2023 vs. FY2022 Results
Sales: € 2.051 Bn (-14.1% vs. -15.0% BS(e) and -14.4% consensus);
EBITDA: € 445.0 M (-13.1% vs. -17.8% BS(e) and -16.0% consensus);
Net Profit: € 211.0 M (-21.6% vs. -28.3% BS(e) and -26.8% consensus);
The results are above what we and the consensus expected in 4Q’23 on a standalone basis, both in sales and margins. In any event, Q4 is the least relevant quarter of the year, due to seasonality.
In 2023 we saw a significant drop in sales due to the weakness in the new pool business and to stock offloading. Additionally, there is an adverse FX effect (around -2%, felt especially in 2H’23).
But on the positive side we highlight the improvement in both the gross margin (+197bps), thanks to price increases, and in the EBITDA margin (around +30bps to 21.7% vs. 20.7% BS(e)) thanks to the initiatives aimed at improving efficiency, which are offset by cost inflation.
NFD fell -11% to € 1.17 Bn vs. Dec’22 (and vs. € 1.21 Bn BS(e)) due mainly to the reduction of working capital. The NFD/EBITDA ratio stands at 2.6x.
After these results we raise our T.P. by +8% given the +5% increase in our recurring EBITDA estimates and other minor balance sheet adjustments (better debt and working capital).
2024 Outlook. The company foresees € 2-2.15 Bn of sales (consensus € 2.09 Bn, BS(e) € 2.11 Bn) and € 440-490 M of EBITDA (consensus € 463 M, BS(e) € 473 M) against a still uncertain macro backdrop but with the inventory correction in the distribution channel already made.
Following the -9% correction in the past week, we expect a positive market reaction to these results. BUY, T.P. € 23.13/sh. (+16.4% upside).