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IBERIAN DAILY 05 DECEMBER (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

NEWS SUMMARY: FLUIDRA, GREENING, OHLA.

IBEX party continues
The solid performance continued in Europe, with widespread gains on the main stock markets and where the IBEX 35 hit a new high, making it now nine straight sessions with gains. In the STOXX 600, Autos and Industrials were the best performers, with Utilities and Leisure the sectors falling the most. On the macro side, in the euro zone October’s retail sales rose more than expected. In Germany, the coalition Govt. is facing a vote on the pension law bill with the risk of it being rejected by SPD, which could provoke a government crisis. In the US, weekly jobless claims fell to their lowest level since Sep’22, despite the raising of the previous data. The director of the National Economic Council and possible successor of J. Powell at the head of the Fed supported a rate cut in December. In Japan, household spending in October contracted unexpectedly. From the BoJ, the press leaked that the reference rate will be raised on 19/12 to 0.75% (+0.25bps; high since 1995), in line with the statements made at the beginning of this week by governor K. Ueda.
What we expect for today
European stock markets would open with gains of +0.25% with the same drivers as the past few days: lower concerns of an AI bubble in the US and confidence in the Fed cutting rates in its meeting next week. Currently, S&P futures are up +0.22% (the S&P 500 ended up +0.18% vs. the European closing bell). Asian markets are mixed (China’s CSI 300 +0.87%, Japan’s Nikkei -1.12% and Kospi +1.75%).
Today in the euro zone we will learn the final 3Q’25 GDP, in Spain October’s industrial output and in the US September’s personal income and outlays, September’s core personal consumer deflator (PCE) and December’s University of Michigan consumer confidence.

COMPANY NEWS

OHLA, UNDERWEIGHT
Yesterday the company announced that as a result of the clarifications and corrections requested by both parties, the International Chamber of Commerce has made public a correction on the arbitral award of the Sidra Hospital (Qatar) from June’25, whereby it declares that the building consortium (55% OHLA) is responsible for paying QAR ~3.8 M (€ ~0.9 M; € ~0.5 M attributable to OHLA). After this correction the arbitral award is final.
Positive news of limited impact. The arbitral award from June’25 stated that the consortium was responsible for paying QAR 105 M (€ 24.3 M, around € 13.3 M attributable to OHLA; ~2.6% market cap). Note that OHLA had a € 28 M provision for this lawsuit and in the absence of the decision on legal costs and interests it could probably revert it in its 4Q’25 Results.