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IBERIAN DAILY 30 JUNE (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

NEWS SUMMARY: GRUPO CATALANA OCCIDENTE.

Europe back on track
European stock markets once again posted gains despite the strong rise in debt curves following the poor inflation data out of Germany and the strong US GDP growth. In the Euro STOXX, Banks and Autos were the biggest winners, with Real Estate and Pharma the worst performers. On the macro side, in the euro zone, June’s economic confidence index fell more than expected. In Spain, June’s inflation fell less than expected to 1.9% YoY, whereas in Germany it rose more than expected to 6.4% YoY. As for the core figure, it remains at a high level of 5.9% and 5.8%, respectively. From the ECB, Lane stated that the last steps needed in order to reach the inflation target could be more difficult than expected. According to the press, the situation in the UK has increased concerns of the most hawkish members of the ECB, reinforcing their belief that rates must be raised. In the US, the third reading of the 1Q’23 GDP showed an unexpected rise to 2.0% QoQ (from 1.3%) vs. 2.6% the previous quarter. Weekly jobless claims fell unexpectedly, and May’s pending home sales recovered less than expected. From the Fed, Bostic hinted that he does not think it is so urgent to continue to raise rates as other members of the FOMC, including Powell. In Japan, the unemployment rate remained at the same level as in May (in line) and June’s Tokyo inflation fell -0.1% to 3.1%. In China, June’s manufacturing PMI rose slightly (in line), whereas the services PMI fell more than expected.
What we expect for today
European stock markets would open with gains, awaiting the release of inflation data in the euro zone and the EU leaders’ summit. Currently, S&P futures are up +0.11% (the S&P 500 ended unchanged vs. the European closing bell). Volatility in the US fell (VIX 13.54). Asian stock markets are mixed (China’s CSI 300 +0.92%, Japan’s Nikkei -0.36%).
Today in the euro zone we will learn June’s inflation, in Germany June’s unemployment, in the US personal income and outlays and May’s University of Michigan consumer sentiment index and in Brazil and Mexico May’s unemployment rate.