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Consumers’ loss of purchasing power, worsened by the war in Ukraine, and the rising oil prices do not change our belief that 2022 will be the start of business recovery thanks to the better pandemic situation, excess savings and pent-up demand. The latter leads us to raise our capacity estimates for 2022-24 (both on capacity and price), bringing recovery to pre-pandemic levels forward by one year (2023 vs. 2024 previously). On the operating level, we lower EBIT’22-23e by -11% (pre-one-offs) due to higher crude oil prices (US$ 104.00/barrel and US$ 90.00/barrel, respectively), although we raise EBIT’24e by +41%, as we expect the normalization of this effect (foreseeing US$ 65.00/barrel from that moment), keeping our recurring EBIT margin hypothesis of 12% in the long-term, at the bottom line of IAG’s profitability guidance pre-Covid while the market is factoring in 9.5%.
IAG: PREPARING FOR TAKEOFF (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)
Preparing for Takeoff. New T.P. € 2.55/sh. (-6% vs. previous; +47% upside). BUY.Consumers’ loss of purchasing power, worsened by the war in Ukraine, and the rising oil prices do not change our belief that 2022 will be the start of business recovery thanks to the better pandemic situation, excess savings and pent-up demand. The latter leads us to raise our capacity estimates for 2022-24 (both on capacity and price), bringing recovery to pre-pandemic levels forward by one year (2023 vs. 2024 previously). On the operating level, we lower EBIT’22-23e by -11% (pre-one-offs) due to higher crude oil prices (US$ 104.00/barrel and US$ 90.00/barrel, respectively), although we raise EBIT’24e by +41%, as we expect the normalization of this effect (foreseeing US$ 65.00/barrel from that moment), keeping our recurring EBIT margin hypothesis of 12% in the long-term, at the bottom line of IAG’s profitability guidance pre-Covid while the market is factoring in 9.5%.
Underlying
International Consolidated Airlines Group SA
International Airlines Group is an international scheduled airline and global premium airlines. Co.'s principal place of business is London with significant presence at Heathrow, Gatwick and London City airports.
Provider
Sabadell
Rafael Bonardell
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