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Markets uneasy with rate cuts and falling consumption, but remaining at highs
On Friday in the US August’s University of Michigan consumer confidence fell more than expected, giving the US market an excuse to take a break after several days of gains following the strong inflation data released early in the week. With all this in mind, the Euro STOXX 50 rose slightly less than +2.0% over the course of the week (+3.0% IBEX). On Friday in the STOXX 600, leading the gains were cyclical sectors like Basic Materials, Leisure, Autos and Chemicals (despite the poor data coming out of China), along with Pharma among the defensive sectors, with the biggest losses coming in Household Goods, Real Estate, Technology and Banks. On the macro side, in the US, apart from the U. Michigan data, July’s retail sales grew in line with expectations, but June’s figure was raised, sending contradictory signals on the health and outlook for consumption. Separately, July’s industrial output fell slightly against expectations. The meeting between Trump and Putin in Alaska did not bring a ceasefire by Putin in Ukraine, but Trump would pressure Zelensky to accept a withdrawal from Donbass, and in exchange the US would offer Ukraine safety guarantees.
What we expect for today
European stock markets would open with gains of more than +0.5%, with solid performance from cyclicals (including Defence in view of the safety guarantees given by Trump in the peace talks, although nothing definitive is expected), except oil companies, which will be hit by the falling Brent prices. Currently, S&P futures are +0.1% higher (the S&P 500 ended +0.30% higher vs. the European closing bell). Asian markets are climbing (China’s CSI 300 +1.7% and Japan’s Nikkei +1.0%).
Today there are no relevant macro data releases. Zelensky will travel to Washington along with eight European leaders to meet with Trump.
IBERIAN DAILY 18 AUGUST (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)
NEWS SUMMARY: N/A.Markets uneasy with rate cuts and falling consumption, but remaining at highs
On Friday in the US August’s University of Michigan consumer confidence fell more than expected, giving the US market an excuse to take a break after several days of gains following the strong inflation data released early in the week. With all this in mind, the Euro STOXX 50 rose slightly less than +2.0% over the course of the week (+3.0% IBEX). On Friday in the STOXX 600, leading the gains were cyclical sectors like Basic Materials, Leisure, Autos and Chemicals (despite the poor data coming out of China), along with Pharma among the defensive sectors, with the biggest losses coming in Household Goods, Real Estate, Technology and Banks. On the macro side, in the US, apart from the U. Michigan data, July’s retail sales grew in line with expectations, but June’s figure was raised, sending contradictory signals on the health and outlook for consumption. Separately, July’s industrial output fell slightly against expectations. The meeting between Trump and Putin in Alaska did not bring a ceasefire by Putin in Ukraine, but Trump would pressure Zelensky to accept a withdrawal from Donbass, and in exchange the US would offer Ukraine safety guarantees.
What we expect for today
European stock markets would open with gains of more than +0.5%, with solid performance from cyclicals (including Defence in view of the safety guarantees given by Trump in the peace talks, although nothing definitive is expected), except oil companies, which will be hit by the falling Brent prices. Currently, S&P futures are +0.1% higher (the S&P 500 ended +0.30% higher vs. the European closing bell). Asian markets are climbing (China’s CSI 300 +1.7% and Japan’s Nikkei +1.0%).
Today there are no relevant macro data releases. Zelensky will travel to Washington along with eight European leaders to meet with Trump.
Provider
Sabadell
Research Department
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