IBERPAPEL: 1Q’21 RESULTS (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)
1Q'21 vs. 1Q'20 Results
Sales: € 48.47 M (-2.9% vs. -13.8% BS(e));
EBITDA: € 5.8 M (-13.9% vs. -16.8% BS(e));
EBIT: € 2.59 M (-33.5% vs. -28.1% BS(e));
Net Profit: € 2.33 M (-30.1% vs. -43.0% BS(e)).
Weak 1Q’21 Results although EBITDA came in slightly above expectations (+4% vs BS(e)). Although this quarter saw restrictions linked to Covid-19 in Europe, paper sales volume exceeded 1Q’20 levels (pre Covid-19 situation; unquantified), while we expected similar volumes. This would explain, to a large extent, the fact that consolidated sales stand +13% above our estimate, hitting levels of € 48 M (-3% vs. 1Q’20). However, paper prices would remain at very low levels vs. 2020 (-12% vs. 1Q’20 BS(e)), although the company hints signs of recovery in its results release. Energy sales would have also beaten expectations (€ 8 M vs. € 6.5 M BS(e); -4% vs. 1Q’20).
EBITDA on the quarter reached € 5.8 M, improving slightly upon our estimate of € 5.6 M (vs. € 6.7 M in 1Q’20), with the EBITDA margin coming in at 12% (vs. 13% BS(e) and 13.5% in 1Q’20). Net Profit on the quarter stood at € 2.3 M (vs. € 1.9 M BS(e) and € 3.3 M in 1Q’20).
The company reported a net cash position of € 31.4 M vs. € 32.9 M at YE2020, with investments of around € -5 M.
As results came in slightly above expectations, volumes recovered and pulp prices are starting to show signs of recovery (partially thanks to rising pulp prices), we would expect a moderately positive reaction at least. IBG share price has performed in line with the IBEX YtD. There will be a conference call at 10:00 (CET) where we will pay close attention to any comments on prices and demand recovery. BUY. Target Price: € 26.10/sh (upside 38.83%)