IBERPAPEL: 3Q’19 RESULTS (ANÃLISIS BANCO SABADELL)
3Q'19 vs. 3Q'18 Results
Sales: € 49.22 M (-10.6% vs. -9.7% BS(e));
EBITDA: € 7.96 M (-11.2% vs. -15.6% BS(e));
EBIT: € 5.31 M (-15.4% vs. -24.4% BS(e));
Net Profit: € 4.23 M (-17.3% vs. -23.4% BS(e)).
9M'19 vs. 9M'18 Results
Sales: € 166.19 M (-0.3% vs. 0.0% BS(e));
EBITDA: € 28.9 M (-1.4% vs. -2.7% BS(e));
EBIT: € 21.07 M (-1.2% vs. -3.8% BS(e));
Net Profit: € 17.11 M (-2.8% vs. -4.5% BS(e)).
The company released mixed 3Q’19 results, where sales were slightly below expectations (-10.6% vs. -9.7% BS(e)), but EBITDA came in above (-11.2% vs. -15.2% BS(e)) thanks to better margins (16.2% vs. 15.1% BS(e) and 16.3% in 3Q’18). As a result, EBITDA fell -17.3% vs. 3Q’18, which is higher than our estimate of -23.4%. The company has registered a cash net position of € 97 M in line with 2Q’19 and vs. € 93 M as of YE2018 due to investments totalling € 3.2 M on the quarter vs. € 4.5 M in 2Q’19.
We expect a slightly positive reception by the market following the -16% underperformance vs. the IBEX over the past 3 months. However, following this set of results, the EBITDA growth IBG should present in 4Q’19 in order to meet our current estimates would be +13%, which we see as quite demanding given its performance thus far this year (-1.4%). Thus, we will wait for the company’s conference call (at 10:00 (CET)) in order to see how much we will have to cut our estimates (it could be up to -5% in EBITDA’19e and -4% on the T.P.) and whether or not we will change our recommendation. SELL. T.P. € 34.46/sh. (upside +37.84%).