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Sales: € 30.08 M (-38.9% vs. -38.7% BS(e));
EBITDA: € -2.5 M (€ 7.96 M in 9M'19 vs. € -3.2 M BS(e));
EBIT: € -4.85 M (€ 5.35 M in 9M'19 vs. € -5.9 M BS(e));
Net Profit: € -4.89 M (€ 4.22 M in 9M'19 vs. € -5.4 M BS(e)).
9m'20 vs. 9m'19 Results
Sales: € 117.58 M (-29.3% vs. -29.2% BS(e));
EBITDA: € 10.25 M (-64.5% vs. -67.0% BS(e));
EBIT: € 2.41 M (-88.6% vs. -93.6% BS(e));
Net Profit: € 1.14 M (-93.3% vs. -96.3% BS(e)).
Poor 3Q’20 results, but above expectations in EBITDA. As a result of Covid-19 and the scheduled stoppage of 50 days for the installation of new pulp capacity, sales fell by -39%, in line with our estimate. However, paper sales came in below expectations (-8%, due mainly to lower sales volumes), whereas energy sales came in far above expectations (€ 5 M vs. € 3 M BS(e)). In cumulative terms, sales fell by -29% vs. 9M’19, as a result of lower paper sales (-22%), a significant drop in paper prices (-8% on average BS(e)) and lower energy sales (due to lower generation and remuneration).
The quarter’s EBITDA came in at € -2.5 M, above our estimate of €-3.2 M (vs. € 8 M in 3Q’19) as a result of a lower absorption of fixed costs due to the scheduled stoppage (lower sales volume). The quarter’s Net Profit totalled €-4.9 M (vs. €-5.4 M BS(e) and € 5.4 M in 3Q’19; € 1.1 M in cumulative terms/-93% vs. 9M’19).
The company reported a net cash position of € 48 M vs. € 66 M in 1H’20 and € 79 M as of YE2019, with investments totaling €~18 M BS(e) on the quarter (we understand this was for the new pulp production facilities).
Even though results came in above expectations in EBITDA, we believe that the market could react negatively as this would entail a cut to our EBITDA estimate’20e >-10% and especially as the share price has performed in line with the IBEX since February’s highs (prior to Covid-19). However, as the impact on T.P. could be lower than -8%, the current upside would exceed +50%, and thus we would keep our BUY recommendation. Conference call at 10:00 (CET). T.P. € 26.10/sh. (+65.19% upside).
IBERPAPEL: 3Q’20 RESULTS (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)
3Q'20 vs. 3Q'19 ResultsSales: € 30.08 M (-38.9% vs. -38.7% BS(e));
EBITDA: € -2.5 M (€ 7.96 M in 9M'19 vs. € -3.2 M BS(e));
EBIT: € -4.85 M (€ 5.35 M in 9M'19 vs. € -5.9 M BS(e));
Net Profit: € -4.89 M (€ 4.22 M in 9M'19 vs. € -5.4 M BS(e)).
9m'20 vs. 9m'19 Results
Sales: € 117.58 M (-29.3% vs. -29.2% BS(e));
EBITDA: € 10.25 M (-64.5% vs. -67.0% BS(e));
EBIT: € 2.41 M (-88.6% vs. -93.6% BS(e));
Net Profit: € 1.14 M (-93.3% vs. -96.3% BS(e)).
Poor 3Q’20 results, but above expectations in EBITDA. As a result of Covid-19 and the scheduled stoppage of 50 days for the installation of new pulp capacity, sales fell by -39%, in line with our estimate. However, paper sales came in below expectations (-8%, due mainly to lower sales volumes), whereas energy sales came in far above expectations (€ 5 M vs. € 3 M BS(e)). In cumulative terms, sales fell by -29% vs. 9M’19, as a result of lower paper sales (-22%), a significant drop in paper prices (-8% on average BS(e)) and lower energy sales (due to lower generation and remuneration).
The quarter’s EBITDA came in at € -2.5 M, above our estimate of €-3.2 M (vs. € 8 M in 3Q’19) as a result of a lower absorption of fixed costs due to the scheduled stoppage (lower sales volume). The quarter’s Net Profit totalled €-4.9 M (vs. €-5.4 M BS(e) and € 5.4 M in 3Q’19; € 1.1 M in cumulative terms/-93% vs. 9M’19).
The company reported a net cash position of € 48 M vs. € 66 M in 1H’20 and € 79 M as of YE2019, with investments totaling €~18 M BS(e) on the quarter (we understand this was for the new pulp production facilities).
Even though results came in above expectations in EBITDA, we believe that the market could react negatively as this would entail a cut to our EBITDA estimate’20e >-10% and especially as the share price has performed in line with the IBEX since February’s highs (prior to Covid-19). However, as the impact on T.P. could be lower than -8%, the current upside would exceed +50%, and thus we would keep our BUY recommendation. Conference call at 10:00 (CET). T.P. € 26.10/sh. (+65.19% upside).
Underlying
Iberpapel Gestion S.A.
Iberpapel Gestion is engaged in the manufacture, wholesale distribution, sale and export of pulp and printing and writing paper. In addition, Co. maintains forestry activities, including the cultivation of timberlands.
Provider
Sabadell
Alfredo del Cerro
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