EUR 100.00 For Business Accounts Only

IBERIAN DAILY 09 APRIL (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

NEWS SUMMARY: INDRA, NEINOR HOMES.

Markets celebrate ceasefire, although with doubts about its compliance
Stock markets rallied after the ceasefire between the US and Iran and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, with oil seeing one of the largest drops in history (more than -15%) and the IBEX rising back above 18,000. In the STOXX 600, all the sectors except Energy ended with gains, led by Travel & Leisure and Industrials. On the macro side, in the euro zone February’s retail sales slowed their growth less than expected. The EU has warned member countries to maintain fiscal discipline despite the shock from energy prices. In Germany, February’s industrial orders rose less than expected. In the US, the Fed’s meeting minutes suggest a complex scenario in inflation (higher for longer) and employment (with downward risks) due to the war in Iran, and some members have asked to leave the door open to rate hikes. In geopolitics, Trump threatened 50% tariffs on any countries exporting arms to Iran. Meanwhile, Iran, which believes Lebanon was part of the agreement reached, has accused Israel of violating the ceasefire and has threatened to keep the Strait of Hormuz blocked (through which ships continue to be unable to pass).
What we expect for today
European stock markets would open with slight drops in view of a shaky ceasefire and a Strait of Hormuz that remains “closed”. Currently, S&P futures are down -0.17% (the S&P 500 ended +0.45% higher vs. the European closing bell). Asian markets are falling (China’s CSI 300 -0.9%, Japan’s Nikkei -0.8% and South Korea’s Kospi -1.35%).
Today in Spain and Germany we will learn February’s industrial output, in the US the final 4Q’25 GDP, the core consumption deflator, February’s personal income and outlays and weekly jobless claims, and in Mexico March’s inflation.