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IBERIAN DAILY 03 NOVEMBER + 3Q’23 RESULTS. HIGHLIGHTS AND REST OF PREVIEWS (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

NEWS SUMMARY: MELIÁ.

At the end of today’s report, and during the entire results season, we will include a presentation with positive and negative results highlights and previews for the 3Q’23 results to be released over the coming days in Spain.

End of rate hikes?
It was a session of sharp gains on both sides of the Atlantic, with the markets assuming Fed and BoE rate hikes have ended. Thus, in the STOXX 600 all the sectors ended with gains, led by Real Estate and Autos, with Insurance and Household Goods the worst relative performers. On the macro side, in the euro zone October’s final manufacturing PMI was raised slightly. In Spain, October’s manufacturing PMI fell more than expected to a 12-month low. In the UK, the BoE, as expected, left rates unchanged at 5.25% for the second straight meeting. In China, Caixin services PMI came in at 50.4 in October vs. 50.2 previously. In 3Q’23 US business results, Booking, Starbucks and Fox beat expectations, Apple released disappointing figures.
What we expect for today
European stock markets would open with gains of around +0.5% that would be reeled in throughout the session in view of US employment data that could again push debt yields upwards. Currently, S&P futures are down -0.10% (the S&P 500 ended up +0.37% vs. the European closing bell). Volatility in the US fell (VIX 16.63). Asian stock markets are rising (China’s CSI 300 +0.90%, Japan’s Nikkei +1.10%).
Today in the US we highlight the employment data and the non-manufacturing ISM for October, in the euro zone we will learn September’s unemployment rate and in Spain the number of unemployed for October. In US business results, Dominion Energy and Gartner, among others, will release their earnings.


COMPANY NEWS

MELIÁ. 3Q'23 Results above expectations although with asset sales not materializing yet. BUY.
Good 3Q'23 Results, above expectations in EBITDA (+1.9% vs. -7.0% BS(e) and -4.0% consensus), beating the margin expected (29.6% vs. 28.2% BS(e), 28.5% consensus). Positive outlook with bookings on the books +22.5% above 4Q’22, and with no slowdown. Flat NFD vs. 2Q’23 due to the end of the lease contract of Tryp hotels, key money and FX differences. Upfront payment received (US$ 15 M) from a sale it is preparing although apparently the target’23 will not be met (€ 120 M, 10% NFD) in time. Despite the underperformance from 2023 highs (-22% in absolute terms and around -20% vs. IBEX), we do not rule out the possibility of a negative market reaction to these results.