EUR 100.00 For Business Accounts Only

IBERIAN DAILY 18 SEPTEMBER (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

NEWS SUMMARY: NATURGY, OHLA.

The market bets on 50bps cuts today by the Fed
It was a new session of gains for European stock markets after the latest macro data released in the US showed that consumer spending is keeping up and industrial output is trying to recover. Thus, in the STOXX 600 Retail and Travel&Leisure led gains, whereas Real Estate and Pharma posted the biggest drops. On the macro side, in Germany, September’s ZEW index came in much worse than expected both in terms of expectations and current situation, suggesting new weakness in September’s manufacturing PMI. In Spain, the BoS raised its 2024-26 growth forecast up to 2.8%, 2.2% and 1.9% from 2.3%, 1.9% and 1.7% previously, with the unemployment rate hardly falling from 11.0% and with inflation reaching the 2.0% target in 2025. From the ECB, G. Simkus (member of the ECB Governing Council) sees a rate cut in October is unlikely after the economy is performing in line with expectations. In the US August’s retail sales and industrial output rose more than expected. In Japan, August’s imports and exports grew less than expected.
What we expect for today
Stock markets would open with slight losses of around -0.2% awaiting the Fed’s decision. Currently, S&P futures are up +0.11% (the S&P 500 ended -0.12% lower vs. the European closing bell). Asian markets are mixed (China’s CSI -0.11% and Japan’s Nikkei +0.15%).
Today Fed meeting, in the UK and the euro zone we will learn August’s inflation, and in the US August’s building permits and housing starts.