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IBERIAN DAILY 15 JANUARY + 4Q’25 RESULTS. HIGHLIGHTS (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

NEWS SUMMARY: REPSOL.

At the end of today’s report, and during the entire results season, we will include a presentation with positive and negative results highlights and previews for the 4Q’25 results to be released over the coming days in Spain.

US stock markets fall
European stock markets ended with a mixed performance, where growth cyclicals saw profit taking in view of the rally over the past few weeks and the growing geopolitical risk. In the STOXX 600, the best-performing sectors were cyclicals like Chemicals and Basic Materials, whereas Media and Technology saw the biggest losses. On the macro side, in the US November’s retail sales grew more than expected (also without the more volatile components), suggesting very strong private consumption in 4Q’25. Meanwhile, the Fed’s Beige Book showed an economy growing at a modest pace. Separately, second-hand home sales for December also rose more than expected. In geopolitics, the US would be withdrawing non-military personnel from Middle East bases, although for the time being Trump has eased threats of military action. Meanwhile, talks between the US, Denmark and Greenland did not lead to an agreement, and although a workgroup will be formed, some NATO countries (Sweden, Norway and Germany) are sending troops to the Island. In US business results, Bank of America and Wells Fargo released profits in line with expectations, and Citigroup released disappointing earnings.
What we expect for today
European stock markets would open with gains of around +0.4%, with the technology and luxury sectors underpinned by the good business results (TSCM and Richmond), and with Energy hit by the drop in Brent crude. Currently, S&P futures are up +0.10% (the S&P 500 ended up +0.53% vs. the European closing bell). Asian markets are mixed (China’s CSI 300 -0.05%, Japan’s Nikkei -0.50% and South Korea’s Kospi +1.58%).
Today in the UK we will learn November’s monthly GDP and industrial output, in Spain December’s final inflation, in the euro zone November’s industrial output, in the US weekly jobless claims, the Empire manufacturing index and the Philadelphia Fed index (both for January). In 4Q’25 business results, BlackRock, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs, among others, will release their earnings.


COMPANY NEWS

4Q’25 Results highlights
Along with our daily report we include 4Q’25 results forecasts with all the previews for next week in Spain with our qualitative opinion and the expected impact on the market. Of the stocks releasing their results over the coming days we highlight on the negative side Bankinter (22/01), where NII could growth below consensus expectations. We believe that the market will not accept a conservative revenue guidance. The stock could see a poor reception if the bank fails to announce a growth guidance’26 >6% in NII and >9% in fee revenues (meaning revenues >7%).

REPSOL. Weak 4Q’25 Trading statement due to Upstream. OVERWEIGHT
Despite the good performance seen in 4Q’25 in refining margin (to US$ 11.10/b vs. US$ 8.80/b in 3Q’25, vs. US$ 6.90/b annual guidance and BS), the deterioration of crude oil prices (to US$ 63.70/b vs. US$ 69.10/b 3Q’25, in line with the guidance), as well as lower production (to 544 kboe vs. 551 kboe 3Q25, at the top end of the annual range) would have prevailed on the quarter. For 4Q’25 Results (19/02), we foresee € 630 M of adjusted Net Profit (~-23% vs. 3Q’25 and vs. € 826 M consensus, which should cut this figure). We expect a weak reading of this trading statement after the good start to 2026 (+8.4% vs. +2.6% IBEX and +4.4% European oil sector). We maintain our OVERWEIGHT recommendation based on its appealing shareholder remuneration (~11% yield) and upside (~+10%).