Report
Andrew Keeley ...
  • Andrey Kuznetsov
  • Andrey Gromadin
  • Cole Akeson
  • Fedor Kornachev
  • Irina Lapshina
  • Kirill Rogachev
  • Mikhail Krasnoperov
  • Svetlana Sukhanova

A Study in Red - Looking for Resilience

Stock moves during selloffs tend to be highly correlated. Still, companies differ in their ability to withstand economic turmoil. In this note, we analyze which stocks look more resilient in the current environment of $30-35/bbl oil and a USD/RUB rate of 74-75.> Oil and gas. Gazprom, Lukoil and Tatneft look more defensive, while Rosneft is more vulnerable in the current environment. Gazprom's financials are the most resilient to an oil price collapse, as its gas exports have mainly shifted to gas hub pricing. Lukoil and Tatneft are protected by their strong FCF generation and dividend yields. On the other side, Rosneft has the highest leverage.> Financials. Moscow Exchange is the only defensive stock in the sector. Its trading volumes should benefit from increased market volatility, while its interest income is no longer under the threat of falling rates. Meanwhile, banks' asset quality and, potentially, capital will suffer from the weaker ruble and economic slowdown.> Metals and mining. Gold stocks are obvious defensive plays, while steelmakers and Alrosa look vulnerable. Diamond sales could be hit particularly hard, as the epidemic will drag on sales of luxury goods and disrupt the supply chain. Steel sales will be hurt by a slump in car sales and construction activity, and the positive effect from the weaker ruble will likely be insufficient to compensate for the drop in sales.> Media and telecoms. The two most liquid stocks, MTS and Yandex, should be quite resilient through the downturn. MTS is protected by the utility nature of the telecom business. For Yandex, the continued migration of advertising activity online should provide meaningful support.> Consumer. Food retailers will see slightly higher inflation but weaker demand due to pressure on incomes. They should see a temporary uptick in their operating numbers on the back of consumer stockpiling, followed by a weakening over the longer term. In the food retail space, we prefer X5 Retail Group and Lenta over Magnit. The implications for other names are mixed.> Utilities. Unipro and Enel Russia appear more resilient due to the fixed nature of their dividends. Meanwhile, RusHydro and InterRAO look less appealing in the current environment, as their upside depends more on potential transformational changes and their dividend yields are much lower.> Transport. The entire sector looks vulnerable at the moment, with Aeroflot being in the toughest situation.> Real estate. Rapidly falling interest rates have benefited the sector via the mortgage market, a trend that is now at risk. Etalon Group appears better positioned in this environment than LSR Group thanks to LSR's likely higher exposure to mortgage-financed projects and Etalon's greater dividend visibility and cheaper multiples.
Underlyings
Aeroflot Russian Airlines

PJSC Aeroflot Russian Airlines is an international air transport company which is engaged in operations in Russia. The principal activity of Co. is the provision of passenger and cargo air transportation services both domestically and internationally and other aviation services from its base at Moscow Sheremetevo Airport. Co. and its subsidiaries also includes activities comprising airline catering, the operation of a hotel and insurance services. Associated undertakings mainly comprise hotel and duty-free retail businesses. The principal business segments are airline operations, airline catering, hotel operations and other.

ALROSA PJSC

AK Alrosa PAO. AK Alrosa PAO (Aktsionernaya kompaniya ALROSA PAO or ALROSA Company PJSC), formerly AK Alrosa OAO, is a Russia-based company which is principally engaged in the exploration, mining, manufacture and sales of diamonds. Its operations include five Integrated Mining and Processing Complexes: Mirny, Udachny, Aikhal, Anabar and Nyurba located in the Sakha Republic; sorting divisions and diamond cutting and polishing division. The Company is a member of variable diamonds associations. It operates through several representative offices, branches and subsidiaries, including Alrosa-Nyurba OAO, Almazy Anabara OAO and Severalmaz OAO.

Bank of Georgia GDR

Bank of Georgia Group

BGEO Group is a holding company. Together with its subsidiary, JSC Bank of Georgia (the Bank) and other subsidiaries, Co. makes up a group of companies that provide banking, insurance, real estate, utility, leasing, beverage production and distribution, brokerage and investment management services to corporate and individual customers. Co. has two operating segments: banking business, which comprises: retail banking and payment services, corporate investment banking and wealth management operations and banking operations in Belarus; and investment business, which comprises Co.'s stakes in Georgia Healthcare Group PLC, Georgia Global Utilities, m2 Real Estate, Aldagi and Teliani Valley.

Bank of St Petersburg

Bank St Petersburg PJSC

Bank St. Petersburg OJSC is involved in commercial banking operations within the Russian Federation. Co. is organized into three main segments: Corporate banking, which includes settlement and current accounts, deposits, credit lines and loans; operations on financial markets, which includes financial instruments trading, loans and deposits on the interbank market, dealing in foreign exchange and derivative financial instruments; and retail banking, which provides private customer current accounts, deposits, retail investment products, custody, credit and debit cards, consumer loans, mortgages and other loans to individuals.

Detsky Mir

Detskiy Mir PAO is a Russia-based company, which is primarily engaged in the children products retail sector. The Company offers a wide range of products, such as toys, clothing and footwear, baby goods, stationery, school and learning related products, creative kits, sport related products, food, car seats, furniture, among others. The Company's structure includes the chain of stores Detskiy Mir and the retail network ELC (Early Learning Center). The Company's Detskiy Mir chain comprises over 480 stores located on the territory of the Russian Federation and Kazakhstan, as well as more than 40 ECL stores. Detskiy Mir PAO is primarily active domestically and in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) countries. In addition, the Company sells products online via its Website. The Company's major shareholder is AFK Sistema PAO.

Enel Russia

PJSC Enel Russia is a wholesale generation company in Russia. Co.'s main areas of operation are production of power and heat, supply (sale) of power and heat, receipt (purchase) of power and heat from the wholesale power (capacity) market. Co. is active in four production branches around Russia: in the Ural region - Reftinskaya GRES, Sredneuralskaya GRES, in the northern Caucasus - Nevinnomysskaya GRES, and in Central Russia - Konakovskaya GRES. Co.'s aggregate installed capacity is 9,677 MW for power and 2,382 GCal/h for heat. Co. provides power and heat to both industrial enterprises and household consumers via local power distribution networks.

Etalon Group (GDR)

Etalon Group is a real estate development and construction company. Co.'s principal activity is residential development in Saint-Petersburg metropolitan area and Moscow metropolitan area, the Russian Federation. Co. has three reportable segments: Residential Development, which includes construction of residential real estate including flats, built-in premises and parking places; Constructions Services, which includes construction services for third parties and for internal purpose; and Other Operations, which include selling of construction materials, construction of stand-alone premises for commercial use and various services related to sale and servicing of premises.

Evraz PLC

Evraz engages in the production and distribution of steel and related products and coal and iron ore mining. Co. also produces vanadium products. Co. has four segments: Steel, which includes production of steel and related products at all mills except for those in North America, and includes the extraction of vanadium ore and production of vanadium products, iron ore mining and enrichment and certain energy-generating companies; Steel, North America, which includes production of steel and related products in the U.S. and Canada; Coal, which includes coal mining and enrichment; and Other operations, which includes energy-generating companies, shipping and railway transportation companies.

Federal Grid Co. of Unified Energy System JSC GDR

Federal Grid Company of Unified Energy System

Federal Grid Company Of Unified Energy System PJSC operates and manages the electricity transmission grid infrastructure of the Russian Unified National Electric Grid (the UNEG). Co.'s principal operating activities consist of providing electricity transmission services, providing connection to the electricity grid, maintaining the electricity grid system, technical supervision of grid facilities and investment activities in the development of the UNEG.

Federal Hydro-Generating Company - RusHydro PJSC

PJSC RusHydro is a hydro-generating company based in Russia. Co. is engaged in the generation and sale of electricity and capacity on the Russian wholesale and retail markets, as well as generation and sale of heat energy. The main activity of Co. is production of power from renewable energy sources, developing power generation using water flows, tidal, wind and geothermal energy. It has an installed electricity generation capacity of 38.5 GW; and heat capacity of 16.2 GCal/h.

Gazprom (GDR)

Gazprom Neft (GDR)

Gazprom Neft PJSC

Gazprom Neft PJSC is vertically integrated oil company operating in the Russian Federation, CIS and internationally. Co.'s principal activities include exploration, production and development of crude oil and gas, production of refined petroleum products and distribution and market ing operations through its retail outlets. Co.'s Upstream segment includes the exploration, development and production of crude oil and natural gas (including joint ventures results), oil field services. Co.'s Downstream segment processes crude into refined products and purchases and sells and transports crude and refined petroleum products (refining and marketing).

Gazprom PJSC

PJSC Gazprom is a gas company based in Russia. Co.'s principal activity is the sale of gas. Co. is also involved in other types of activities which include leasing of assets, gas transportation and storage services, sale of gas condensate and refined products. Co. and its subsidiaries and associates operates gas pipelines systems in Russia. Co. is responsible for substantially all gas production and high pressure gas transportation in the Russian Federation. Co. is also a major exporter of gas to European countries. Co. is directly involved in exploration and drilling for hydrocarbons, production of gas and other hydrocarbons and domestic and export sale of gas and other hydrocarbons.

Halyk Savings Bank of Kazakhstan GDR

Halyk Savings Bank of Kazakhstan JSC

Inter RAO UES PJSC

Inter RAO UES PJSC is a functioning operator of electricity exports and imports in the territory of Russia. Co. represents the interests of two Russian power sector participants: RAO UES of Russia and Rosenergoatom concern, which possess 60 and 40% of the shares respectively. Co. is engaged in arranging transboundary electricity supplies, to provide both domestic and foreign consumers with electric power. Co. is also engaged in pursuing effective investment activities. Co. is developing several areas of activity, including: electric power export and import supplies; electricity sales in home and foreign markets; investment activities; and foreign asset management.

Lenta International PJSC

Lenta is a hypermarket group based in Russia. Co. operates 87 hypermarkets in 50 cities across Russia and 16 supermarkets in the Moscow region with a total of approximately 571,328 sq.m. of selling space. Co. also operates four distribution centers for hypermarkets and one for supermarkets. operates three hypermarket formats: Standard, typically with approximately 7,000 sq. m. of selling space (smaller than many Western European hypermarkets) and 24,000 stock keeping unit (SKUs); Compact, typically with approximately 5,000 sq. m. of selling space and 20,300 SKUs; and Supercompact, typically with approximately 3,000 sq. m. of selling space and 15,000 SKUs.

LSR Group

Group LSR PJSC is involved real estate development in Saint Petersburg, Munich, Yekaterinburg and Moscow, prefabricated panel construction in Saint Petersburg, Moscow and Yekaterinburg, commercial real estate development in Saint Petersburg and Moscow and Yekaterinburg, the production of building materials at plants located in Russia and Ukraine, the extraction and processing of aggregates in Leningrad region, and the provision of construction services. These products and services are sold mainly in Russia. As of Dec 31 2015, Co. had five reportable segments: LSR.Building Materials; LSR. Construction; LSR.Project management; LSR.Cranes; and LSR.Real Estate.

LSR Group (GDR)

M Video

M.video PAO (formerly known as M.video OAO) is a Russia-based consumer electronics and home appliance retail chain. M.video PAO operates through numerous stores in over 100 cities, as well as through online store within the Russian Federation. It offers audio, video, digital, small and large home appliances, media and entertainment products, as well as accessories. It also offers products delivery and repair services. In addition, the Company provides management and consulting services for holding companies and for companies active in the financial and industrial sectors. M.video PAO operates through two wholly owned subsidiaries, located in Moscow. As of December 31, 2011, the Company's major shareholder was Svece Limited with a stake of 67.78%.

Magnit PJSC

Magnit is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, Co. operates in the retail and distribution of consumer goods under the Magnit name. Co.'s retail operations are operated through convenience stores, cosmetic stores, hypermarkets and other. Most of its stores are located in the Southern, Central and Volga regions. Co. also operates stores in the North-Western, North-Caucasian, Urals and Siberian regions. As of Dec. 31 2014, Co.'s stores chain consisted of 9,711 stores: 8,344 convenience stores, 190 hypermarkets, 97 Magnit Family stores and 1,080 drogerie stores in 2,108 cities and towns throughout the Russian Federation.

Magnit PJSC Sponsored GDR RegS

Magnitogorsk Iron & Steel Works (GDR)

Magnitogorsk Iron & Steel Works PJSC

Magnitogorskiy Metallurgicheskiy Kombinat PAO, formerly Magnitogorskiy metallurgicheskiy kombinat OAO, is a Russia-based company, active in the steel industry. Its main products are sinter, coke, iron, crude steel, rolled products and ore materials. The Company offers a wide range of products such as wire rod, rebars, square bars, strips, round bars, among others. It is also involved in the coal ore mining, processing of ore materials, sale of ferrous metal products and others. Magnitogorskiy metallurgicheskiy kombinat OAO operates as a supplier for such industries as: pipelines, vehicles, railway, construction and shipbuilding, among others. Its subsidiaries include Lys'venskaya Metallurgicheskaya Kompaniya OOO, among others. The Company operates domestically, as well as exports its products to the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) countries, Asia, the Middle East and Europe.

Mail.ru Group Ltd. Sponsored GDR

Mail.Ru Group is an Internet company based in the Russian Federation. Co. operates the email service [email protected] and two IM networks in Russia - Mail.Ru Agent and ICQ. Co. operates two Russian-language online social networking sites: Moi [email protected] and Odnoklassniki.ru, and owns a strategic minority equity stake in the social network Vkontakte. Co. is also engaged in developing projects in E-commerce and operating more than 40 thematic vertical sites, targeting various user categories. Co. is also Russia's predominant online games company. Co. maintains a portfolio of online games which includes 34 MMO games and over 30 games for social networking sites.

Mobile TeleSystems PJSC

Mobile Telesystems is a provider of mobile cellular communications services in the Russian Federation, Ukraine, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan to consumers and corporate customers, employing technology based primarily on Global System for Mobile Communications (GSM). Co. had a mobile subscriber base of around 102.5 million (77.3 million in Russia, 20.4 million in Ukraine, 2.1 million in Turkmenistan, 1.6 million in Uzbekistan and 1.1 million in Armenia). In addition to standard voice services, Co. provides improved services, including voice mail, short message service, general packet radio service, and various SMS- and GPRS-based information and entertainment services.

Mobile TeleSystems PJSC Sponsored ADR

Moscow Exchange MICEX-RTS PJSC

Moskovskaya Birzha MMVB-RTS PAO. Moskovskaya Birzha MMVB-RTS PAO (MMVB-RTS OAO) is a Russia-based integrated stock exchange that provides electronic trade organization, clearing and settlements on trades, depository and information services. The Company provides trading and settlement services in such segments of the financial market as foreign exchange (FX) market, federal bonds market, market of derivative financial instruments, cash equities market, corporate and regional fixed income market, commodities market, as well as market for state and municipal orders. The Company was established as a result of the merger between MMVB ZAO and RTS OAO. It operates through six branches and three representative offices. As of February 27, 2013, the Company's major shareholder was the Central bank of the Russian Federation with a stake of 22.47%. In January 24, 2014, the Company sold its whole stake in MMVB-IT ZAO.

Oil company LUKOIL PJSC

PJSC Lukoil is a vertically-integrated oil company engaged in the exploration and production of crude oil and natural gas. Co. is engaged in all main sectors of the modern oil business including supplies, refining, marketing, transportation, petrochemicals and oil-related activities. Co.'s operations are divided into five business segments: Exploration and Production; Refining, Marketing and Distribution; Chemicals; Power Generation and Other Business Segments. Co. owns and operates refineries in Bulgaria (LUKOIL Neftochim Bourgas AD) and Romania (Petrotel-LUKOIL).

OR PSJC

OR PAO, formerly OR OAO, is a Russia-based company, which is engaged in the footwear industry. The Company specializes in manufacture, retail and wholesale of footwear, outwear and accessories. The Company offers financial services to its customers including installment payments and cash loans. The financial strategy of the Company includes bond program implementation and unsecured loans. Its retailers portfolio is comprised of Westfalika, Emilia Estra, Rossita, Lisette and Peshekhod. The Company also owns such brands as S-TEP, all.go and Snow Guard. It operates two factories in Novosibirsk region. The Company operates domestically.

PhosAgro PJSC

PhosAgro is a producer of phosphate-based fertilizers. As of Dec 31 2014, Co. had two segments: Phosphate-based products, which includes mainly production and distribution of ammophos, diammoniumphosphate, sodium tripoly phosphate and other phosphate based and complex (NPK) fertilisers on the factories located in Cherepovets, Balakovo and Volkhov, and production and distribution of apatite concentrate extracted from the apatite-nepheline ore, which is mined and processed in Kirovsk; and Nitrogen-based products,which includes mainly production and distribution of ammonia, ammonium nitrate and urea on the factory located in Cherepovets.

PhosAgro PJSC Sponsored GDR RegS

Polymetal International Plc

Polymetal International is the ultimate parent entity of Polymetal Group, a precious metals mining group operating in Russia, Kazakhstan and Armenia. Co. has five reportable segments: Magadan; Ural; Khabarovsk; Kazakhstan; and Armenia. Each segment is engaged in gold, silver or copper mining and related activities, including exploration, extraction, processing and reclamation.

Polyus (GDR)

Polyus PJSC

PJSC Polyus is an open joint stock company based in Russia. Co. is engaged in operations as a gold production company. Co.'s major assets are: in Krasnoyarsk region, Olympiada deposit as well as Blagodantoe, Titimukhta, Tyrada, Olenii, Razdolinskaya, Zyryanovskaya and Panimba fields; in Irkutsk region, Zapadnoe, Verninskoe, Pervenets, and Chertovo Koryto and Mukodek goldfields as well as some 94 placer deposits; in Magadan region, Natalka deposit and smaller Degdekan and Vostochnoye fields; in the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia), Kuranakh ore body and Kyutchus field as well as 50% interest in the giant Nezhdaninskoye field; and in Amur region, Bamskoe gold field.CJSC Deloitte & Touche CIS

Qiwi Plc Sponsored ADR Class B

Ros Agro PLC

Ros Agro, through its subsidiaries, is engaged in agricultural production, cultivation of pigs, processing of raw sugar and production of sugar from sugarbeet, vegetable oil production and processing. Co. and its subsidiaries are organised on the basis of four segments: Sugar, which is engaged in the production and trading operation with white sugar; Meat, which is engaged in the cultivation of pigs and selling of consumable livestock to third parties; Other agriculture, which is engaged in the cultivation of plant crops and dairy cattle livestock; as well as Oil, which is engaged in vegetable oil extraction, production and sales of mayonnaise, consumer margarine, and bottled vegetable oil.

Rosneft Oil Co.

OJSC OC Rosneft is a vertically-integrated Russian oil and gas company with upstream and downstream operations in each of Russia's oil-producing regions. Headquartered in Moscow, Co. operates ten oil and gas producing enterprises across Russia and is involved in over ten exploration projects. In addition to its upstream operations, Co. also owns two refineries, which have a combined capacity of 10 million tons per year, as well as four main oil export terminals and a nationwide network of over 600 service stations. Co.'s downstream operations consist of its crude oil export structure, refining operations and nationwide network of marketing subsidiaries.

Rosneft Oil Co. Sponsored GDR RegS

Rosseti

PJSC Rosseti is a holding company based in Russia. Co. is engaged in the management of companies that operate in the energy sector. Co.'s core business is the management of electric grid subsidiaries for the purpose of pursuing a common policy in the field of electric grid services, specifically in the area of innovations, energy conservation and energy efficiency, development and implementation of a common strategy for developing the distribution electric grid sector of the Russian Federation. Co.'s other services comprise property management, consulting, securities operations, scientific research and construction and transport and expedition.

Severstal (GDR)

Severstal PAO

PAO Severstal is an integrated Iron & Steel works company with a range of products: hot and cold rolled steel, roll-formed shapes and pipes, rolled sections, a large group of coke products and by-products. Co. also has various social responsibilities such as the operation and maintenance of sports complexes, holiday and recreational facilities and public housing. Co.'s operations are organized along three principal divisions: Severstal Russian Steel engaged in crude steel production; Severstal Resources engaged in the production of iron ore concentrate, pellets and coking coal; and Severstal International engaged in the production of high-quality flat-rolled products.

TATNEFT (PREF A)

TATNEFT PJSC

Tatneft PJSC and its subsidiaries are engaged in crude oil exploration, development and production principally in the Republic of Tatarstan, Russia. Co. is a holding structure, which incorporates oil and gas production boards, crude oil and gas refining companies, as well as enterprises and servicing works selling the crude oil and also the products of crude oil and gas refining and petrochemical products. In addition to this, Co. is also participating in the banking and insurance activities. Co.'s operations are divided into the following main segments: Exploration and Production; Refining and Marketing; and Petrochemicals.

Unipro

E.ON Russia is engaged in the wholesale electricity market, it produces and sells electric and heat power. As of Dec. 31, 2012, the structure of Co. includes five heat power plants with the total installed capacity of 10,345 MW/2,125.9 Gcal/h: Surgutskaya GRES-2 (Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Area, Tyumen Region), Berezovskaya GRES (Krasnoyarsk Territory), Shaturskaya GRES (Moscow Region), Smolenskaya GRES (Smolensk Region) and Yaivinskaya GRES (Perm Territory).

United Company RUSAL international PJSC

United Company Rusal is a producer of aluminium and alloys. Co.'s production chain include bauxite and nepheline ore mines, alumina refineries, aluminium smelters and casting houses, foil mills and packaging production centres. Co. operates in four reportable segments: Aluminium, which is involved in the production and sale of primary aluminium; Alumina, which involved in the mining and refining of bauxite into alumina and the sale of alumina; Energy, which include the mining and sale of coal and the generation and transmission of electricity; Mining and Metals, which includes the equity investment in Co.'s joint venture, PJSC MMC Norilsk Nickel.

VTB Bank (GDR)

VTB Bank PJSC

Bank VTB PAO is a Russia-based bank engaged in the provision of financial services. The Bank reports five segments: Corporate-Investment banking includes operations with corporate customers that are large business customers and banking financial institutions, as well as operations on the securities market; Mid-Corporate banking covers operations with medium business corporate customers; Retail business includes operations with individuals and small business corporate customers, and offers operations on Internet and mobile Point-of-Sale acquiring, plastic cards, payroll services and financial consulting, among others; Treasury comprises operations to manage liquidity, operations on financial and interbank markets, cash flow management and debit financing operation; as well as Other business includes two business: Construction and development involves operations undertaken by Company in the construction and development industry, and Other activities represent non-banking business.

X5 Retail Group N.V. Sponsored GDR RegS

X5 Retail Group is a holding company. The main activity of Co. is the development and operation of grocery retail stores. Co. operates a retail chain of soft-discount, supermarket and hypermarket stores under the brand names "Pyaterochka", "Perekrestok" and "Karusel" in major population centres in Russia, including but not limited to Moscow, St. Petersburg, Nizhniy Novgorod, Rostov-on-Don, Kazan, Samara, Lipetsk, Chelyabinsk, Perm, Ekaterinburg and Kiev, Ukraine.

Yandex NV Class A

Yandex is an internet and technology company that operates an internet search engine in Russia. Co. builds intelligent products and services powered by machine learning. Co.'s products and services are based on complex, unique technologies that are not easily replicated. Co. generates substantially all of its revenues from online advertising. Co. also generates revenues from its e-commerce offerings, classifieds and e-hailing service. Co.'s businesses are organized in the following operating segments: Search and Portal; E-commerce; Taxi; Classifieds and Experimental businesses.

Provider
Sberbank
Sberbank

​Sberbank CIB Investment Research is a research firm offering equity, fixed income, economics, and strategy research. It covers analysis on all aspects of Russia’s capital markets, issues and industries. The firm analyzes trends in Russia and combines local knowledge with a global perspective. It processes macroeconomic data, market and company-specific news, stock quotes and other information for providing research reports. The firm provides details and latest prices on the most traded names and most traded paper on all segments Russian market. In strategy research, it provides thematic research, tips and descriptions of the methodology used to evaluate companies.

Analysts
Andrew Keeley

Andrey Kuznetsov

Andrey Gromadin

Cole Akeson

Fedor Kornachev

Irina Lapshina

Kirill Rogachev

Mikhail Krasnoperov

Svetlana Sukhanova

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