Russian Metals and Mining - Marked-to-Market Valuation Snapshot
In this note, we provide marked-to-market valuations to track the rapid market changes since our last report. > As expected, the global turmoil has finally started impacting Russian export steel prices, with prices on semis down more than 10% w-o-w this week and HRC prices down 2% w-o-w. Bulks prices are holding up well thanks to a recovery in China and no disruption in India so far (the largest coking coal importer). Russian domestic premiums have turned negative due to the sharp ruble collapse and steelmakers' aim for price hikes to bring them at least in line with historical levels in April-May. As the virus situation outside of China just gets worse, there is still no clarity on how sustainable volumes will turn out to be, but so far export shipments have gone on undisrupted. As steel producers' stocks have fallen another 4-12% this week, valuations have gotten richer over the week. Evraz's FCF has reached almost 30% of its market cap.> Since our report this Monday, palladium has continued to decline and is now trading at $1,655/oz. As expected, Nornickel has revised downward its estimate of the deficit in the palladium market for this year from 0.9 moz to 0.2 moz, assuming an 8% decline in global car production. Following a sharp drop in the share price, Nornickel's spot FCF yield is up to 12% in 2020.> Gold names have suffered a massive selloff this week following the correction in gold and silver prices, underperforming the entire sector and now trading at a record-low EV/EBITDA below 6.0 (for 2020E).> PhosAgro remains the most resilient thanks to positive momentum in phosphate prices, triggered by the supply disruption in China during the virus outbreak. However, the uptick in prices might prove unsustainable, as China is ramping up production again. Like steelmakers, in the event of a business disruption in Europe, Russian fertilizer producers may have to reallocate volumes to Asia, which may impact netbacks. Still, this should be offset by a weak ruble.AK Alrosa PAO. AK Alrosa PAO (Aktsionernaya kompaniya ALROSA PAO or ALROSA Company PJSC), formerly AK Alrosa OAO, is a Russia-based company which is principally engaged in the exploration, mining, manufacture and sales of diamonds. Its operations include five Integrated Mining and Processing Complexes: Mirny, Udachny, Aikhal, Anabar and Nyurba located in the Sakha Republic; sorting divisions and diamond cutting and polishing division. The Company is a member of variable diamonds associations. It operates through several representative offices, branches and subsidiaries, including Alrosa-Nyurba OAO, Almazy Anabara OAO and Severalmaz OAO.
Evraz engages in the production and distribution of steel and related products and coal and iron ore mining. Co. also produces vanadium products. Co. has four segments: Steel, which includes production of steel and related products at all mills except for those in North America, and includes the extraction of vanadium ore and production of vanadium products, iron ore mining and enrichment and certain energy-generating companies; Steel, North America, which includes production of steel and related products in the U.S. and Canada; Coal, which includes coal mining and enrichment; and Other operations, which includes energy-generating companies, shipping and railway transportation companies.
Magnitogorskiy Metallurgicheskiy Kombinat PAO, formerly Magnitogorskiy metallurgicheskiy kombinat OAO, is a Russia-based company, active in the steel industry. Its main products are sinter, coke, iron, crude steel, rolled products and ore materials. The Company offers a wide range of products such as wire rod, rebars, square bars, strips, round bars, among others. It is also involved in the coal ore mining, processing of ore materials, sale of ferrous metal products and others. Magnitogorskiy metallurgicheskiy kombinat OAO operates as a supplier for such industries as: pipelines, vehicles, railway, construction and shipbuilding, among others. Its subsidiaries include Lys'venskaya Metallurgicheskaya Kompaniya OOO, among others. The Company operates domestically, as well as exports its products to the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) countries, Asia, the Middle East and Europe.
MMC Norilsk Nickel PJSC is a global producer of nickel, palladium, platinum and copper. Co. also produces by-products, such as cobalt, chromium, rhodium, silver, gold, iridium, ruthenium, selenium, tellurium and sulfur. Co. is involved in prospecting, exploration, extraction, refining and metallurgical processing of minerals, as well as in production, marketing and sale of base and precious metals. Co.'s production facilities are located in five countries: Russia, Australia, Botswana, Finland, and South Africa. Co.'s production units are integrated and include: the Polar Division (the Taimyr Peninsula); and the Kola Mining and Metallurgical Company (Kola MMC or the Kola Peninsula).
Novolipetsk Steel is a vertically integrated steel manufacturing and production group based in Russia. Co. specializes in the manufacturing of high-quality hot and cold rolled steel in a variety of grades and sizes. Co. is also engaged in production and sales of flat steel products including slabs, hot rolled and cold rolled sheet, electrical steel, galvanized steel, cold rolled sheet with polymeric coatings. In addition, Co.'s areas of manufacturing include sintering, coke production, blast furnace production, steel-making, hot and cold-rolled flat steel production, galvanized and prepainted steel production. Co. exports its products to 70 countries around the world.
PhosAgro is a producer of phosphate-based fertilizers. As of Dec 31 2014, Co. had two segments: Phosphate-based products, which includes mainly production and distribution of ammophos, diammoniumphosphate, sodium tripoly phosphate and other phosphate based and complex (NPK) fertilisers on the factories located in Cherepovets, Balakovo and Volkhov, and production and distribution of apatite concentrate extracted from the apatite-nepheline ore, which is mined and processed in Kirovsk; and Nitrogen-based products,which includes mainly production and distribution of ammonia, ammonium nitrate and urea on the factory located in Cherepovets.
Polymetal International is the ultimate parent entity of Polymetal Group, a precious metals mining group operating in Russia, Kazakhstan and Armenia. Co. has five reportable segments: Magadan; Ural; Khabarovsk; Kazakhstan; and Armenia. Each segment is engaged in gold, silver or copper mining and related activities, including exploration, extraction, processing and reclamation.
PJSC Polyus is an open joint stock company based in Russia. Co. is engaged in operations as a gold production company. Co.'s major assets are: in Krasnoyarsk region, Olympiada deposit as well as Blagodantoe, Titimukhta, Tyrada, Olenii, Razdolinskaya, Zyryanovskaya and Panimba fields; in Irkutsk region, Zapadnoe, Verninskoe, Pervenets, and Chertovo Koryto and Mukodek goldfields as well as some 94 placer deposits; in Magadan region, Natalka deposit and smaller Degdekan and Vostochnoye fields; in the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia), Kuranakh ore body and Kyutchus field as well as 50% interest in the giant Nezhdaninskoye field; and in Amur region, Bamskoe gold field.CJSC Deloitte & Touche CIS
PAO Severstal is an integrated Iron & Steel works company with a range of products: hot and cold rolled steel, roll-formed shapes and pipes, rolled sections, a large group of coke products and by-products. Co. also has various social responsibilities such as the operation and maintenance of sports complexes, holiday and recreational facilities and public housing. Co.'s operations are organized along three principal divisions: Severstal Russian Steel engaged in crude steel production; Severstal Resources engaged in the production of iron ore concentrate, pellets and coking coal; and Severstal International engaged in the production of high-quality flat-rolled products.
United Company Rusal is a producer of aluminium and alloys. Co.'s production chain include bauxite and nepheline ore mines, alumina refineries, aluminium smelters and casting houses, foil mills and packaging production centres. Co. operates in four reportable segments: Aluminium, which is involved in the production and sale of primary aluminium; Alumina, which involved in the mining and refining of bauxite into alumina and the sale of alumina; Energy, which include the mining and sale of coal and the generation and transmission of electricity; Mining and Metals, which includes the equity investment in Co.'s joint venture, PJSC MMC Norilsk Nickel.
Sberbank CIB Investment Research is a research firm offering equity, fixed income, economics, and strategy research. It covers analysis on all aspects of Russia’s capital markets, issues and industries. The firm analyzes trends in Russia and combines local knowledge with a global perspective. It processes macroeconomic data, market and company-specific news, stock quotes and other information for providing research reports. The firm provides details and latest prices on the most traded names and most traded paper on all segments Russian market. In strategy research, it provides thematic research, tips and descriptions of the methodology used to evaluate companies.
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